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Surging oil prices amid US-Iran war could impact India’s vulnerable economy: Report

 India’s external balance and government finances could be hit if oil prices stay high for an extended period, economists have said, as the Iran war pushes up oil import costs and the subsidies needed to keep key commodities affordable.. The oil price spike caused by the war in the Middle East has sparked exasperation at petrol pumps around Asia. (AFP). India is considered to be among the most vulnerable to a global oil shock as it imports nearly 90% of its crude requirements and about 50% of its gas requirements. Over half of its crude is from the Middle East, where export flows have been disrupted by the US-Israeli war on Iran, and India’s current oil stocks are only enough to cover 20 to 25 days.. Gas supply shortages have already begun hitting industries and consumers, and Iran has threatened a protracted conflict and $200 per barrel for oil.. If oil prices average $100 a barrel for close to 12 months, the South Asian nation could also see growth fall sharply and inflation rise.. Also Read: First India-bound oil tanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, reaches Mumbai Port; Watch. A prolonged crisis could widen the country’s current account deficit, weaken the rupee and stoke inflation, the government said in its monthly report last week.. Current Account Deficit. The most immediate impact would be on India’s current account deficit. This concern has pushed the rupee to a record low and forced the central bank to sell dollars from its reserves.. An average price of $100 a barrel would widen the current account deficit to 1.9%-2.2% of GDP for the 2026/27 financial year, from a projected 0.7%-0.8% of GDP, rating agency ICRA said in a note.. India’s current account deficit was last at 2% in 2022. Its financial year runs from April 1 to March 31.. Fiscal Deficit. The federal government’s annual expenditure could also rise by 3.6 trillion rupees ($39 billion) in the next financial year if oil prices hold at an average of $100 per barrel, according to Mumbai-based Elara Securities.. The government’s total estimated expenditure for the next financial year is 53.5 trillion rupees, according to the annual budget presented in February.. A key expense would be higher subsidies for the fertiliser sector to ensure farmers have the key input at affordable costs.. At an average price of $100 a barrel, fertiliser subsidies could rise by 200 billion rupees, Elara Securities said, and the government might also need to compensate oil marketing companies if they are asked to keep retail petrol and diesel prices low.. While retail fuel costs are technically deregulated in India, oil companies tend to delay price adjustments in times of economic strain.. The government is targeting a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP for the 2026/27 year.. If it chooses to maintain that deficit, it may have to cut long-term infrastructure spending being used to boost growth and jobs, Elara Securities said.. Growth and Inflation Impact. The Indian economy is expected to grow at more than 7% in t 

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Politics

India expresses grief over missile attack on Iranian girls’ school

 India on Thursday expressed grief over the death of scores of children in a US missile attack on a girls’ school in Iran, and emphasised the need to prioritise the safety of civilians amid the conflict in West Asia.. India mourns lives lost in US missile attack on Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school in Iran (REUTERS). Iranian officials have said 175 people, most of them children, were killed in the attack on Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in Minab city on February 28, the first day of the conflict. US media reports have cited American officials as saying that an ongoing military investigation has determined that the US was responsible for the deadly Tomahawk missile strike on the school.. “As far as the question of the school children…is concerned…we have issued several statements on the ongoing conflict. We have underlined the need for prioritising the safety of all civilians,” external affairs ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told a weekly media briefing.. “We regret the precious lives lost and express our grief in that regard,” he said.. According to reports, a missile struck the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school during school hours. The victims were mostly girls aged between seven and 12, and large parts of the building were destroyed while classes were underway. Reports have also pointed out that the US is the only country using the Tomahawk missile in the conflict.. US media reports have also said that the strike on the school was the result of a targeting mistake by the US military, which planned to hit an adjacent Iranian military base that the school building was formerly a part of. Military officers created the target coordinates using outdated data from the Defense Intelligence Agency.. Jaiswal also said that India was among 135 countries which co-sponsored a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-led resolution at the UN Security Council that condemned “egregious attacks” by Iran against Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. The resolution, adopted with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (China and Russia), said these attacks amounted to “a breach of international law and a serious threat to international peace and security”.. The resolution, Jaiswal said, reflects several of India’s positions. “We have a large diaspora in the GCC countries and their well-being and welfare is of utmost importance. The Gulf is also very important for our energy security needs,” he said, referring to the 10 million Indians living in West Asian states. 

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India examining fuel supply requests from Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka

 India is considering requests from Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka for the supply of fuel amid an energy crisis caused by the West Asia conflict, the external affairs ministry said on Thursday.. New Delhi reviews fuel aid requests from Bangladesh, Maldives, and Sri Lanka as West Asia conflict disrupts energy supplies. (Bloomberg). Cooperation in energy is a key pillar in India’s development collaboration with countries in the neighbourhood. India has helped finance the construction of cross-border pipelines to Nepal and Bangladesh, and also supported the development of Bhutan’s hydropower sector.. As global oil and gas prices have surged and crude supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have dwindled because of the Iran-US conflict, neighbours such as Bangladesh have turned to India for additional fuel supplies.. “We have received a request from the government of Bangladesh for supply of diesel, which is being examined,” external affairs ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told a weekly media briefing.. Also Read: India in touch with Iran for safe passage of vessels through Strait of Hormuz. “We have received such requests from several other countries, including Sri Lanka and the Maldives, and these are being examined taking into account our own energy requirements and availability,” he said.. India, Jaiswal noted, is a major exporter of refined petroleum products, especially to the country’s neighbourhood. As part of a “people-centric and development-oriented approach” to relations with Bangladesh, India has been supplying diesel from the Numaligarh refinery in Assam since 2007 through waterways, railway and the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline.. “A sale-purchase agreement was signed in October 2017 between Numaligarh refinery and the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation for supply of high-speed diesel on mutually agreed terms,” Jaiswal said.. Diesel exports to Bangladesh have continued since 2017, and factors such as India’s refining capacity, the country’s requirements and diesel availability will be taken into consideration while deciding on Dhaka’s request for additional diesel supplies, Jaiswal said. 

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‘Exposing themselves’: PM Modi slams Opposition amid LPG shortage ‘panic

 Prime Minister Modi on Thursday criticized the opposition, saying those spreading panic over LPG are “exposing themselves” during his address at the NXT Summit 2026 in Delhi.. PM Modi said people spreading panic over LPG are “exposing themselves.” (File Photo). He added that India is fully committed to tackling the challenge, “leaving no stone unturned” while actively working on multiple fronts to ensure energy stability.. The Prime Minister noted that he has spoken with several world leaders and that continuous efforts are underway to overcome obstacles in the energy supply chain.. “India will make every effort to ensure that its farmers and citizens are protected from burden of global challenges, PM Modi said as quoted by news agency PTI.. Also read| ‘Exposing themselves’: PM Modi slams Opposition amid LPG shortage ‘panic. Earlier today, Energy minister Hardeep Puri gave ‘full’ assurance that there is ‘no shortage of fuel’ in India amid mounting concerns due to Strait of Hormuz closure.. Addressing the Lok Sabha, Puri said, “There is no shortage of petrol, diesel, kerosene, ATF or fuel oil. The availability of petrol, diesel, aviation and fuel oil is fully assured.”. Also read|Amid hotel closures, Centre says some commercial LPG cylinders ‘will be released’. Emphasising that what the world is going through currently is something it has not faced in history, Puri said that India has to “navigate the consequences” of the ongoing conflict in West Asia, even though it has no role in it.. Amid closure of hotels and restaurants over concerns of fuel shortage, the ministry of petroleum and natural gas on Thursday announced that some commercial liquid petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders will be released, adding that state governments will identify beneficiaries.. The oil ministry also said that 40,000 kilolitre of additional kerosene has been allocated to states as an alternative to LPG,.. Sujata Sharma, joint secretary, ministry of petroleum and natural gas, said during an inter-ministerial briefing that almost 50 lakh cylinders are delivered on a daily basis, adding that no dry out has been reported “on the distribution side”. 

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Centre monitors West Asia airspace as Indian carriers resume flights to Riyadh

 The Ministry of Civil Aviation on Thursday said it is closely monitoring the evolving situation in West Asia and its impact on air connectivity between India and several destinations in the region, as airlines begin restoring some operations affected by US, Israel strike on Iran.. Riyadh in Saudi Arabia has seen damage as Iran retaliates to US-Israeli conflict by attacking their bases in its neighbouring countries. (Reuters Photo). Flights to and from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, have restarted from March 12, marking a key step in restoring vital air connectivity between India and the Gulf, according to a press release.. On the first day of operations, Air India and IndiGo operated three services to Mumbai, while Air India Express ran one service to Calicut, reflecting a phased resumption strategy.. Between February 28 and March 11, over 1.5 lakh passengers (1,50,457) travelled from Gulf countries to India, underscoring the importance of these routes for Indian travellers.. To maintain connectivity across the region, Indian carriers have scheduled 57 inbound flights on March 2026 from cities including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Fujairah, Jeddah, Muscat, Ras Al Khaimah, Riyadh, and Sharjah, though operations remain subject to prevailing conditions and operational feasibility.. The Ministry is coordinating closely with airlines and other stakeholders to ensure smooth passenger movement, while also monitoring ticket prices to prevent any undue surge during this period. Passengers are advised to stay in touch with their airlines for the latest updates on flight schedules and travel arrangements.. MoCA has confirmed that it will continue to review the situation in West Asia and provide further updates as needed, reflecting ongoing efforts to manage air travel safely amid regional uncertainties. 

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Jaipur man kills wife, daughter; stays with bodies overnight till arrest: Police

 A 40-year-old man on Wednesday night allegedly killed his wife and daughter with a sword in Jaipur and then remained with the bodies overnight until the police arrived to arrest him on Thursday morning.. Police arrested a Jaipur man who allegedly killed his wife and young daughter, sitting with their bodies overnight on the terrace. “The incident took place when his son and his brother went to attend a relative’s wedding function. Prima facie, he was stressed over his deteriorating health and poor financial condition. We are probing the matter,” Jaipur Superintendent of Police (Rural) Shivlal Bairwa said.. The accused, Surjeet Singh, works in a local factory in Jaipur’s Mokhampura. “He was diagnosed with tuberculosis a year ago and since then his health was not good. He used to fight with his wife almost daily. He was probably not in the right state of mind,” Bairwa said.. On Wednesday, his wife Saroj Devi (35) and daughter Anshika (8) were sleeping on the terrace.. “Surjeet returned from the factory, took out a sword, and suddenly attacked Saroj. He first slit her throat multiple times. When Anshika woke up, he smothered her to death,” Bairwa said.. After killing the duo, he sat with the two bodies overnight. “In the morning, he started screaming from the terrace, calling the neighbours and telling them that he killed them. The locals immediately called the police, who arrived and arrested Surjeet,” SP added.. The police sent the two bodies for autopsy and registered a murder case under relevant sections of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS). 

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