Chris Mason: Elections this week set to show how politics is changing11 hours agoChris MasonPolitical editorIan Forsyth via Getty ImagesThere are now just days left before a vital set of elections around Britain on Thursday, which will determine who spends billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money and will shape the mood and career prospects of political leaders in town halls, in Holyrood, in the Senedd and in Westminster.Depending on where you are reading this, your doormat may have been carpeted with colourful leaflets for weeks and your TV and social media feeds chocca with political promises. Postal votes have been arriving and being returned for some time. You may be in Northern Ireland, or parts of England that are not having elections this year, and you don’t have to worry about this. They are not the only parties but they are usually the ones that stand out compared to their Westminster rivals. In the English local elections, the Liberal Democrats are competing with the Conservatives and Labour. Reform UK is also a contender, as is the Green Party of England & Wales. There are also many independents. In the devolved election, Plaid Cymru in Wales would like an independent Wales one day, and the Scottish Green Party or the Scottish National Party in Scotland would both like Scotland to become independent. What has changed is that they are all more competitive than they used be in more places. This fracturing is evident in the House of Commons, where Labour won a large majority of seats but with the lowest vote share ever for a majority government. It was also the first time in 1832 that the Conservatives won less than 30% of the vote at a general elections. Of course, popularity ebbs over time and Labour and Conservatives both managed 82.4% votes in the 2017 general election. But the longer-term trends are clear. As this brilliant House of Commons Library briefing paper points out, “between 1945 and 1970 all but a handful of House of Commons seats were held by the Conservatives and Labour, who together took about nine in every ten votes cast in general elections over this period”.It doesn’t feel remotely like that now and hasn’t for some time, and the fracturing appears to be accelerating.Professor Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s lead elections analyst, told The Times: “We’re going to see records tumble. We live in unprecedented times. The opinion polls indicate that the traditional Conservative/Labour duopoly faces its biggest challenge since it was founded in the 1920s. “He added that the basic assumptions of British Politics – that there isn’t room for a party on the right of the Tories, or the left of Labour has gone – are no longer true. British politics is fundamentally different from any other time in the post-war era. “Activists of all parties tell me about their shock or excitement over the current volatility. The former is more common if you are a Labour or Conservative and the latter is more common if you are one of the other parties. As tribal loyalty has broken down for many and the range of elective options has widened, those that regularly knock on door for parties tell of the unsentimental switch voters now consider. Last summer, the research group More in Common described a “shattered Britain”. “For many Britons the recent years have been infused with a feeling of unending crisis and dissatisfaction at the status quo. The authors concluded that a large part of the public does not believe that we have a political or economic model that is effective for them or that our economic or social models work for them. It’s no wonder that things are so frantic. And it’s also no surprise that “May” is used as a shorthand in Labour circles for months on end. These elections have long represented for them a deepseated fear that deepseated unpopularity would switch from opinion poll sentiment to voting reality.Like a tennis umpire, eyes forever dashing left and right, Labour folk do the same, politically and geographically.Yes, incumbent governments at Westminster frequently find themselves on the receiving end of volleys of opprobrium from the electorate between general elections.But the scale of these elections looks set to vividly expose the breadth of Labour’s vulnerabilities.There is the tussle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK to dominate in Wales, with Labour staring at the prospect of losing for the first time in a century.They have won every general election in Wales since 1922 and every devolved election since 1999.The Scottish National Party is widely expected to triumph again in Scotland. Opinion polls show that support for Labour is down. The SNP’s popularity hasn’t increased in recent years but it has declined. Some of the most competitive candidates are those who are deeply concerned about Gaza and government’s Middle East policy. Observers expect that they will make gains in areas with a large Muslim population, like parts of Lancashire and Birmingham. And speaking of east London, Labour fear a onslaught from both sides.
