The headlines are just a snapshot of the emerging picture. It is important to note that the headlines are only an emerging picture. Reform has been winning about one-third of the seats declared. Labour has lost just under half of their seats that they were trying to defend. They are defending more seats than any other party in this election. The spin operations of both parties are well underway. Labour’s core argument is that mid-term elections can be difficult for governments and are not good predictors of the outcome of the next general election. This is true to some extent, but the governing party did not go backwards on seats in 2011, 2015 or 2017 for example. Labour is going backwards in a big way. How Labour handles these losses psychologically will be crucial over the next few days and hours. It’s another thing to sit in the dentist chair and actually have it done. Take Tameside, Greater Manchester. This is the area of former deputy prime Minister Angela Rayner. That will hurt. Not far away in Wigan, where the local MP is cabinet minister Lisa Nandy, Labour lost all 22 seats it was defending to Reform. This will hurt. Not far away, in Wigan, Labour lost all 22 of the seats it was defending. The local MP, cabinet minister Lisa Nandy is the local Labour MP. The reason for this is that the councils who have completed their counting only had a quarter of their seats available for election. The Liberal Democrats have made small gains, but they can also point to their control of Stockport and Portsmouth Councils. The Conservatives are, as expected, going backwards. They can also point to a victory in Westminster and denying Labour of Wandsworth, even though they haven’t taken it themselves. Turnout is higher than previous local elections. It is currently running at 43%. This is eight points higher than 2022.
