Business

Fed Chairman Warsh expresses concern about inflation trend

Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chairman expressed concerns Friday over rising inflation and hinted that rates may need to be raised if there isn’t more progress made in easing the price pressures.
Warsh avoided making any commitments in his closely-watched remarks made at the annual Fed symposium held in Jackson Hole (Wyo.) about forward guidance – or verbal clues to the Fed’s intentions – or the reaction function — the economic signals which would justify an adjustment in interest rates.
He did admit that the inflation rate is high, saying that “while [this summer’s] [inflation] numbers were better than I expected, it does not mean that fundamental trends have improved significantly.”
We must have confidence that the inflation rate is clearly moving in our direction and doing so at a sufficient pace. We have a lot of work to do if we don’t. It’s part of our work. . . Our mandate. . . “We must keep our promise,” he said.
The stock market indexes did not change much after 10 am ET. Treasury yields have moved significantly higher since the 10 a.m. ET release. According to CME’s FedWatch, traders increased the likelihood of a rate increase at the September meeting by about 10%.
Warsh expressed a lot of confidence about the economy, saying that it “seems to have improved.”
The chairman, as he did in the past, cited artificial intelligence benefits and stated that business and consumer expenditures have held up very well. He acknowledged a decline in hiring but attributed it to the flattening of labor supplies.
Warsh used his speech to explain his policymaking philosophy, while avoiding any indications of what he believes should be done in order to meet the Fed’s two mandates: low inflation and full-employment.
Warsh, addressing a gathering of economists, media and fellow members of the Federal Open Market Committee in a prepared speech for an audience that included his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.
He has been criticised for his hesitant approach to policy, at a moment when the Fed is still unable to achieve its 2% inflation target. The chairman has criticized the use of prior forward guidance, which he viewed as a form of handholding to markets who should interpret data and not Fed rhetoric.
He said, early in his speech “In Our Time”, “You could call it an outline.” . . You can also call it a map of the trail. . . Just don’t refer to it as forward guidance” a practice he claimed “has outlived its welcome.”
The Fed’s role in the eyes of the public and market was a major part of the message.
Warsh has been in the Fed’s office since May, and he noted this was his 100th full day. He set up five task groups to examine various Fed functions. The markets should not be reliant on the words of policymakers. This is a major theme. He called on a “quieter Fed and more deliberate in its communication.”
The Fed is essential to the market and economy. Our tools are very powerful. Our tools are powerful. “Market participants are always trying to predict what the Fed will do,” said he. We should avoid a situation where market participants look to the Fed as their primary source of information for future trades.
Warsh’s address was different from those of his predecessors who used Jackson Hole to either indicate the direction in which rates would be heading, to make broad changes to Fed frameworks or to outline new approaches to monetary policy. Last year, the then-Chair Jerome Powell hinted that rate reductions were coming, causing a Wall Street rally.
Warsh, in his short time as Fed chairman has tried to set a course for the Fed that is similar to what it was like before the financial crisis when the Fed gave less precise signals to the markets and had a more limited role.
Market participants are accustomed to the absence of forward guidance. However, Warsh has been asked to at least provide an indication as to what might trigger a response from policy makers. He was still reluctant to make a commitment, even on this note.
If forward guidance does not work in normal circumstances, how about the Fed’s new chief adopting a reaction function that is explicit? He should at least tell us what his rate of interest will be if the data are hot or cold. He said this, as if he were acknowledging the criticism. He asked specifically if the Fed would provide specific rules that they follow.
Warsh asserted, however, that our knowledge “just doesn’t reach that far – at least, not yet” and the factors that are most important to the correct conduct of monetary policies change with time.
In my role as chairman, I and my colleagues will strive to create more reliable models to help guide decisions. While we know that accurate economic forecasting remains a distant dream, we will still strive to achieve it. It’s prudent to remain modest when it comes to what we know and don’t know, he added.
Warsh didn’t mention the announcement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about accelerated government debt buybacks in his speech, which seems to be contrary to Fed Chair Warsh’s wish for less involvement of the government in the markets.

Business

Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Could Hit $120 as Shipping Risks Rise

Goldman Sachs says that oil prices may surge up to $120 per barrel if the attacks against shipping in Middle East increase.
Bloomberg TV interviewed Daan Struyven on Monday, the co-head for global commodities at Goldman Sachs.
The price of oil has risen in recent weeks due to renewed hostilities. It soared early Monday morning in Asian trades, reaching its highest level since July.
This weekend, the situation escalated after the U.S. announced that it had hit three Iranian oil tanks in response to the IRGC’s use of ballistic missiles against two U.S. Warships.
After the attack, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf declared that “proportionate response” was over and that Iran’s future retaliations will be “faster and heavier.”
Iran said that it will announce in the next few days a “new exclusion zone”, which “will start from the U.S. Naval Blockade line, extend towards the Strait of Hormuz and continue from this side into the Persian Gulf.”
Mohsenrezaei said that any ship found to be entering this area in order to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and which is identified, will appear on the sanctions list.
Brent Crude was trading at more than $97 a barrel early on Monday. The U.S. benchmark WTI Crude was also above $92 per barrel.
Struyven, a Goldman analyst who spoke to Bloomberg, said that Goldman believes “significant upside in crude oil prices” but also added that investors would bet more on the rising prices of natural gas and refined products.
Experts say that in gas and fuel markets, the supply shocks were greater than on the crude oil market.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Oilprice.com: Top Stories
U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Tankers and Iran Vows Revenge The U.S. strikes three Iranian tankers, and Iran vows revenge
BLM moves to fast-track oil permits in Alaska Petroleum Reserve
Europe’s Gas Prices to Rise for Fourth Straight Weekly

Business

Labor Day sales are live: Shop expert-approved deals from Amazon, Apple, Hoka, Patagonia and more up to 75% off

Labor Day is the unofficial ending of summer. Whether you are sad to say goodbye or excited for autumn, everyone can agree that finding great deals will make any season more enjoyable. We can help. We have a team of experts who spend hours scouring retailer sales so that you know what to buy now, and what is better to hold off on. We’ve found markdowns up to 75% this Labor Day on homewares, clothing staples, tech gear, and much more from Apple, Kate Spade and Patagonia. We’ve put together a list of all the Labor Day deals you shouldn’t miss.
Labor Day Deals: The Best Labor Day Offers
Hanes Men’s Hoodie (originally $27): A Rare 70% Discount
Patagonia Men’s Nano Puff jacket ($160, originally $229): rare sale on a editor’s pick
Apple AirTag 4 Pack ($80, originally $99): lowest price ever seen
Ninja Flip Toaster Oven & Air Fry ($150, Was $250): Get $100 off
Dyson V8 Cyclone cordless vacuum cleaner ($300 instead of $400): rare deal
New Labor Day deals
Neutrogena Dry Touch Sunscreen 70 SPF 50 ($5, used to be $13): lowest price in months
Bose QuietComfort headphones ($199, originally $349): rare 45% discount
Levi’s Women’s Ribcage straight Jeans (45 dollars, originally $85): Lowest price for 30 days
How to pick up the best Labor Day deals
We only highlight markdowns that we think will save you real money. Some sales are not good; prices may be inflate to appear larger, or some products will cost less elsewhere. What we would skip on Labor Day
Apple iPhone: Wait — there will be a new iPhone model soon. Prices on the existing model typically drop when it launches.
Black Friday is the best time to buy video games and high-ticket technology.
Winter clothing: The new season collection is now in stores, but wait until November to get the biggest discounts on winter staples such as coats and booties.
Best Labor Day deals: Top picks
Best Labor Day deals: Rare deals
Best Labor Day deals: Style
Our style expert says that retailers are clearing summer stock to make way for the fall and winter. So, you can expect steep discounts over Labor Day on items like sundresses and sandals. I recommend shopping for the current season. Stock up now on lighter (and cheaper) clothes, and then grab the discounted styles of fall when the next round of sales comes around in October. Browse more style deals here.
Best Labor Day deals: Home
Our home expert says that now is the time to buy the outdoor furniture you have been wanting. Keep an eye on deals for pillows and mattresses. Mattress prices are usually at their lowest around Presidents’ Day. However, you may still be able to find some great discounts during this period. If you’re looking for new bedding and towels that are luxurious, I recommend waiting until the “white sales” in January. These items usually have even greater discounts. Click here to see more deals on home products.
Best Labor Day deals: Kitchen
Our kitchen expert says that as the seasons change, deals on kitchen equipment start to appear. Many of these products are useful all year round. Air fryers and cookware are great for summer, but also useful as we move into the fall. Black Friday is when you’ll see the biggest price cuts on larger appliances like refrigerators and ranges. If you can wait until November, then it might be worth buying one. Browse more kitchen deals here.
Best Labor Day deals: Tech
Our tech expert says that if you have been waiting to upgrade your tablet or laptop, it may now be time. The AI industry is creating a huge demand for components and memory chips, so the low prices we experienced in late 2017 and early 2018 are not returning. What’s the exception? Amazon devices. Prime Day is coming up, so I would wait to buy Kindles or Echo devices until they are heavily discounted. Find more deals on tech here.
Live4 Updates
These reviews are the latest versions available at the moment of publication.

Business

$40 trillion U.S. national debt just got uglier as interest payments rise to $1.25 trillion a year

Doubleline, an investment management company, noted in a recent report that by 2025 the net federal interest payments on the U.S. national debt, now at $40 trillion, will surpass the previous record of 18.4%. The U.S. collects nearly 19% (or $1.25 trillion) of its total tax and revenue to pay interest, which is equivalent to the 2026 Defense Budget.
Increasing interest payments can create a vicious cycle. The government has to borrow more money to pay the interest and is then less able to invest in infrastructure, education or other areas that promote growth.
According to the Kobeissi letter, a global market commentary, interest expenses as a percent of revenues have tripled since 2015. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that interest expense will reach 25% in 2036.
The Kobeissi Letter posted on social media that “the US debt crisis has never been seen before.” These projections are based on the assumption that there will be no recession or major slowdown in this time period.
How the interest rate on debt today is different than in 1991
In 1991, when the U.S. was still recovering from recession and the oil shocks of the Gulf War, it had a booming economy. At the time, the high demand for Treasuries pushed the yields to 8%. This was down from over 10% during previous decades.
Doubleline said that the situation is very different today. Doubleline argued that the government was able to handle an interest rate of 8% when debts were smaller. But this is not true today. The public debt in 1991 was 44% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product. Today, it is more than 100%. The government still has to spend more because of the lower interest rate, even though the debt is so large.
Analysts wrote: “The federal interest burden is at a new record, but the yield on long bonds has not reached that record.” The yield may seem normal by historical standards but not the government’s reaction to it.
In order to complicate matters, hyperscalers and major tech firms are now turning towards debt markets. AI companies will issue $225 billion of bonds during the first half 2026. This capital spending may worsen national debt, as many of the investments are tax-deductible. It also bucked a trend where private companies borrow less when governments were borrowing more. Tech giants are flocking to bonds with a 10-to-30 year term to raise the long-term funds needed to build out AI. This is straining the U.S. economy and forcing the government to offer higher interest rates to maintain demand.
Ed Yardeni, a Wall Street veteran and economist who has been in the business for over 30 years, wrote a note recently that said: “Capital is not flowing to Treasuries because it’s going into corporate bonds. Treasury yields had to go up to clean out the market.” The AI revolution has a crowding out effect that is causing Treasury yields rise.
Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, doubled Treasury buybacks for 10-to-30 year bonds from $2 billion up to $4 billion. This move surprised investors, and was a rare example of direct involvement by the Treasury chief. Doubleline analysts said the strategy blurred between managing cash and controlling markets. It also showed how crucial a time it is for the U.S. to manage interest rates on its debt.
Analysts said that “Net interest expenses have already reached a new record as a share of revenues, and the Treasury is continuing to finance large budget deficits on a market where private capital demand is high.” The level of long bonds is therefore more important than what the comparison with historical data suggests.

Business

US fuel prices hit record high for Labor Day weekend

Filling up your tank to go on a last trip for the summer over Labor Day Weekend is more expensive than ever before in the U.S.
According to AAA, the average cost of gas for regular was $4.14 per gallon before the Labor Day holiday. This is nearly $1 higher than the previous year, and more than double the Labor Day Weekend record price of $3.82 in 2012.
Nicole Collins was planning to travel from Philadelphia to South Carolina in order to see friends. However, she explained that her family had spent the majority of summer at home because it is so costly to drive.
Gas is expensive right now. Collins added, “It doesn’t matter that we have a child, we have to also pay for this.” Collins was speaking outside of a Claymont gas station, Delaware where the price per gallon is $4.199.
The prices have risen since the U.S., Israel and other countries attacked Iran on February 22nd. The flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for the transportation of crude oil to the world market, has plummeted. Iran refuses to open the Strait.
Tom Seng is a Texas Christian University professor of energy and finance. He said, “Everything pointed to the Iran War” and the Strait of Hormuz.
The Energy Secretary Chris Wright gave few details on the date when drivers could expect to see a reduction in gas prices, but acknowledged that the price is higher than Labor Day 2025.
Wright stated on ABC’s This Week that “yes, the prices are higher, but we will do everything to bring them back down.”
Gas prices are still below the national average of $5.02 per gallon, set by June 2022.
Diesel is another story. It reached a new record Friday of $5.85 per gallon, the national average.
Diesel is used by trucks and other systems for freight delivery. This increased cost of transportation, which can be passed onto consumers at grocery stores or package delivery services, increases the price.
Collins stated that “it doesn’t seem as if there is an end” to the situation.
As the driving season in summer ends, gas prices tend to drop. Refineries then switch over to a winter blend that is cheaper.
Seng added that there were other factors, even outside the unstable situation in the Middle East this year, which make the future price of oil unpredictable. U.S. refining plants are operating at 98% of their capacity. Many in Texas’s unusually hot heat. Prices will be hard to lower if there are any problems or hurricanes knock some systems off line.
It’s not just an issue in the Middle East. Diesel supplies are being squeezed by Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian refineries. Matthew Metzgar is a clinical economist at UNC Charlotte and he said that Chinese refiners also see a decline in output.
Metzgar stated that “there is just less fuel coming out of these refineries.”
Wright, energy secretary Wright, stated that Trump administration is taking steps to increase the production, and the markets are forecasting lower prices for the next few months.
If you take a look at futures, you’ll see that if you buy gasoline in bulk today for November two months in advance, the price is $0.35 less than today. The marketplace believes that gasoline prices will be significantly lower in the future,” said he.
There is not much a motorist can do geopolitically to bring down the price of gas.
Metzgar says that price apps are a good way to save money on trips, particularly long ones. Gas prices along the Interstate could be up to 10 cents per gallon higher than in stations just a few miles away.
___
Mingson Lau, a videojournalist with Associated Press and Gary Fields, a reporter for the Associated Press contributed.

Business

Amazon cargo plane crashes after overshooting Miami airport runway; at least 5 killed

Officials said that at least five people died and five were injured Sunday when an Amazon cargo aircraft overran the runway and hit several cars. Emergency crews were called to the crash scene, which prompted an approximately 3-hour stop on the ground at Miami International Airport.
Officials said that the Prime Air aircraft, operated by North Carolina’s 21 Air, had overrun one of airport runways before coming to rest on a nearby field.
Miami-Dade Fire Rescue reported that the plane struck several vehicles in the area of the 2100 Block of Northwest 42nd Avenue. More than 60 units of the department responded to this crash. Miami-Dade Sheriff’s Office also said that it responded.
Miami-Dade Fire Rescue battles fire after plane crash, rescues victims
Three of the five injured people were transported to local trauma centers in critical conditions. The two other people were evaluated and transported to hospitals in the area. No one has been identified.
MDFR reported that when the crews reached the aircraft, it was ablaze and emitting heavy smoke.
MDFR chief Ray Jadallah stated, “What we discovered was a complex situation.”
MDFR reported that crews used foam as well as specialized firefighting equipment to fight the flames. MDFR reported that crews conducted rescue and search operations for both the co-pilot and pilot inside the cockpit as well as locating patients at the scene.
The officials did not give any further details on the crew’s condition. The officials have stated that it is too soon to determine if those killed on board the plane were also among the passengers.
Officials said that several people had been trapped in their cars and needed to be rescued by MDFR’s technical rescue staff.
Amazon crash site fuel leak confirmed
MDFR reported that a fuel leak was “occurring from the aircraft and is currently being mitigated.” Natalie Milian Orbis, commissioner of the MDFR said that residents and motorists should avoid the area between 67th Ave and 25th Street.
The officials said that there is no threat to the public’s safety.
Amazon reacts to cargo plane accident
Amazon has confirmed that one of their planes is involved in this crash.
We’re working with officials and local authorities to determine exactly what happened. Our absolute priority right now is to ensure the safety and well-being of all involved. Kelly Nantel said that Amazon was doing all it could to help those who were affected.
Nantel stated that the company is “heartbroken” to hear of five deaths in an incident today at Miami International Airport. We extend our deepest sympathy to all the affected families and loved ones.
Nantel said that Amazon “will cooperate fully” with any investigations.
Does Miami International Airport remain under ground stop?
Around 2:30 pm, the Air Traffic Control System Command Center of the Federal Aviation Administration issued the Ground Stop. ET. Greg Chin is the director of communications for Miami-Dade Aviation Department. He says that two runways at the airport have been reopened. After about three hours the ground stop ended, however, as of Sunday evening, an average flight delay was six and a half hours.
FAA confirms that the Boeing 767 300 that left San Juan Puerto Rico was at fault for this crash. According to Flightradar24, the 767 was 32 years old. It had flown for a number of airlines as a passenger aircraft before being converted into a freight plane in 2015.
The National Transportation Safety Board and FAA both investigate.
Sean Duffy of the U.S. Department of Transportation shared a short statement with X informing travelers of potential delays and cancellations.