Let’s make a Tarik Skubal deal!

With the best pitcher in baseball’s name being mentioned frequently in MLB trade deadline conversations, it’s time to find a home for the Detroit Tigers ace every contender will be coveting this summer.

We asked our MLB experts to put on their GM hats, taking the reins for one team and pitching their best realistic offer to land Skubal. From there, ESPN MLB draft and prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel evaluated each deal — dismissing those that came up short and finding the ones that could actually get a blockbuster deal done this summer.

Who had the best offer? Let’s dig in.

Not even close

The offer: RHP Luis Severino, LHP Jamie Arnold, OF Devin Taylor and OF Lawrence Butler

The A’s could get this deal done by putting one name in their package: Leo De Vries. That would essentially mean they traded Mason Miller for Skubal. Fun to think about but that’s all that is — a thought exercise. With no chance to sign Skubal long term, the A’s can’t give up their top prospect, nor will they trade lefty Gage Jump, who recently joined their major league rotation.

Instead, Detroit gets back a legit starter for next season in Severino (assuming he exercises his player option), the 11th pick in last summer’s draft in Arnold, a change-of-scenery candidate in Butler and an OF prospect in Taylor. — Jesse Rogers

The GM says: By my math, this offer is underwater — i.e., worth negative value. You’re basically dumping two contracts in Severino (prorated $20 million this year, a $500,000 trade bonus and a $22 million player option he’s extremely likely to pick up) and Butler (a little over $60 million guaranteed through 2031) while including a good prospect (Arnold, 50th on my most recent prospect list) and a decent prospect (Taylor). This offer likely wouldn’t lead to a second conversation. — McDaniel

Not bad, but …

The offer: OF Spencer Jones and RHP Carlos Lagrange or RHP Elmer Rodriguez

How can any potential major trade not include Yankees rumors? They last won the World Series in — checks notes — 2009. Of course they would want one of the top pitchers in the world even if their rotation pears to be one of the best already. Skubal would make it better.

Any debate must start with the slugging, strikeout-prone Jones, whom the Yankees might not have the patience to wait for, or perhs OF Jasson Dominguez. One must go. What about one of the organization’s top pitching prospects in Lagrange or Rodriguez? That is a lot, but then again, so is Skubal. — Eric Karabell

The GM says: Unfortunately, even including all three of these prospects wouldn’t get it done because I got better offers than I was expecting from other teams. On pure, regular-season-focused, model-driven math aimed at avoiding a big mistake, this is a solid, defensible offer. That, however, is not the mindset the other GMs brought into the exercise. For reference, all three of these players plus Dax Kilby (that would make the full offer my No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5 Yankees prospects) would put this in a dead heat for the best offer from this group of GMs. — McDaniel

The offer: RHP Santiago Suarez, RHP Brody Hopkins and RHP Michael Forret

With their outstanding start to the season, the Rays are in position to strike big. The rotation has pitched well — it’s fifth in the majors in ERA — but it is just 27th in innings pitched. With Ryan Pepiot out for the season, Tampa Bay has tried Griffin Jax as a starter, which weakens the bullpen. Adding Skubal to front a rotation with Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez would give the Rays a World Series-worthy group.

The Rays will be reluctant to trade outfielder Theo Gillen, who jumped from the No. 92 prospect before the season started to No. 30 in McDaniel’s updated top 50 in late May and has a 1.000 OPS at High-A Bowling Green. Likewise with catcher Nathan Flewelling, who is also raking at Bowling Green and is the hoped-for solution to the catching issue that has plagued the big league team for years. But the Tigers might be more interested in a package of pitchers anyway, especially ones who are close to the majors, so let’s give them three upper-level arms. Suarez is No. 3 and Hopkins No. 4 on the latest top-10 list for the Rays while Forret has great numbers at Double-A. — David Schoenfield

The GM says: This is a smart offer from the Rays because it includes three arms they acquired in other deals and they’re all right-handers the Rays can probably create/find/replace in the aggregate in one way or another despite being quite talented. Suarez and Hopkins are just outside of the top 100 for me, and Forret still could be a big league starter. It’s a solid package on pure math and roughly what I thought would make a competitive offer — that is, until these other GMs got much more competitive. — McDaniel

The offer: OF Luis Lara, 3B Andrew Fischer and RHP Coleman Crow

Milwaukee’s internal model would likely reject this, but owner Mark Attanasio should override it. Skubal could deliver a 2008 CC Sabathia-type stretch run, one that would narrow the g between the Brewers and Dodgers in a potential playoff rematch. Skubal in Game 1. Jacob Misiorowski in Game 2. Kyle Harrison in Game 3. That trio would provide Milwaukee its clearest path to a pennant since 1982. — Paul Hembekides

The GM says: I like that this offer features two position players as headliners, with everyone in the upper minors or big leagues. With similar value to the Yankees’ and Rays’ offers, that puts the Brewers a bit ahead in this tier of similar packages. Ultimately, this still doesn’t include a likely impact player or top-100 prospect, so there just isn’t quite enough here to make me think we can negotiate this to a completed deal. — McDaniel

Now we’re getting somewhere

The offer: INF Pedro Ramirez, OF Kevin Alcantara and RHP Jaxon Wiggins

Trading Skubal doesn’t mean the Tigers would enter rebuild mode. Having signed Framber Valdez softens the blow (a bit) in the rotation, and they have young position player talent to create a successful foundation in the AL Central.

Ramirez and outfielder Alcantara fit that he has 15 home runs in 41 Triple-A games this season — and the arm for right field at the big league level. Both could help Detroit immediately and build on a core featuring Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler and, eventually, Max Clark. Then there’s Wiggins, who has been sidelined since mid-ril with elbow inflammation. That’s obviously a concern, but the right-hander’s stuff is explosive and the Tigers are thin on pitching prospects.

Ramirez (No. 1), Wiggins (No. 4) and Alcantara (No. 6) are three of the Cubs’ six prospects. And they make sense for the Tigers. — Jorge Castillo

The GM says: Now we’re getting closer; this offer is at a tier above the others thus far. Ramirez is a top-100 prospect, a position player who just made his big league debut. That’s what I’m looking to get in an ideal trade return. Alcantara is more of a role player but has debuted and comes with six years of control. Wiggins opened the season near the end of the top 100, but his command still looked reliever-y then he went on the shelf with elbow inflammation in ril and hasn’t returned yet. This is a strong package that could conceivably be the Cubs’ offer in real life, and it would be one the Tigers could accept. — McDaniel

The offer: RHP Jared Jones, OF Jhostynxon Garcia and Round A competitive balance pick

I’m not sure who put me in charge of the Pirates, but I’m going for it right now. Our fans deserve it! Yeah, Skubal is a luxury for my rotation-rich roster in a regular-season context, but once he helps us get to the playoffs, I’m throwing Skubal and Paul Skenes at you every series. Good luck with that.

I’m overpaying to make this hpen, though I suspect others will do the same. Dang it, 1979 was a long time ago. Let’s get this done because now I need to go trade for Mike Trout. — Bradford Doolittle

The GM says: This also seems like it could actually be a realistic offer if the Pirates decide to get aggressive, and it could be among the best offers Detroit would get. Jones could give me 3½ years of performance as a second or third starter at a che salary. He just got back from elbow surgery and his velo is up, so the payoff would be immediate. Garcia should start helping either this year or next on the role player/clear starter borderline, and the draft pick is exactly the kind of player I want. — McDaniel

Close … but no cigar

The offer: SS JoJo Parker and LHP Johnny King

Trading a pair of top-100 prospects for a player on an expiring contract might seem foolish, but bear in mind that the Blue Jays are defending American League champions who are surely planning to maximize their championship they can figure out later which of he or Kevin McGonigle stays at shortstop — and King, a big-time power arm. — Tristan Cockcroft

The GM says: These last three offers bring us into overpay land, just to calibrate what fans are expecting in reality versus what our GMs in this exercise are doing when their job security is not on the line. I don’t think Parker will be on the table in reality, but I can’t help but be excited that he’s here now. He’s the 33rd-best prospect in baseball with advanced feel to hit as well as infield fit and a little more raw power than I was expecting when he was drafted in 2025, though he’s more than a year away, so Tigers fans would have to wait a bit. King, the Jays’ third-best prospect, has been a personal favorite for a while but his command hasn’t taken the step I was hoping for, so he’s still a couple of years away from being big league relevant. There’s a lot of upside here, but it’s not the best offer. — McDaniel

The offer: C Ethan Salas, SP Kruz Schoolcraft, SP Bryan Balzer, RP Jeremiah Estrada (for Skubal and 1B Spencer Torkelson)

The Padres desperately need an ace and, in A.J. Preller, employ a general manager who covets stars more than anyone. It’s a perfect fit — until you consider how bare San Diego’s prospect cupboard has become in recent years. The Padres would have to part with their best young players for a player on an expiring contract, but they could justify that by also getting Torkelson, a failed first-round pick from a prior Detroit regime, to address another need at first base.

Salas has bounced back from injury to perform really well in Double-A, a major development for the Padres’ system. Schoolcraft, a 6-foot-8 left-hander who just turned 19, is widely regarded as their next-best prospect. Balzer is one of their fastest-rising ones. But the Tigers are going to try to win next year, too. They need something more immediate. That’s where Estrada, controllable through 2029, comes in. He is fourth in the Padres’ bullpen pecking order, but he can be the Tigers’ closer next season. — Alden Gonzalez

The GM says: I can’t say this is unrealistic because Padres GM A.J. Preller is involved and I was shocked that he traded (six-plus years of) Leo DeVries last season (for 4½ years of Mason Miller), so I can’t say it’s impossible that he’d deal Salas even if I think it’s quite unlikely. I point out the years of control because I think that’s why he did the shocking thing last year, and that’s obviously not a factor in this potential deal.

I believe Estrada has a bit more value than Torkelson, so I’m winning that exchange of big leaguers, and I can flip Estrada to a contender for more young players. Schoolcraft’s stock is down a bit due to his walks spiking, and Balzer also comes with some relief risk, but these are the Padres’ top two prospects and their sixth best. This offer is headlined by a potential star position player who is trending back up and is in the upper minors with a shot to debut next year. I don’t think the Tigers could say no to this in reality — unless another NL West team decides to drop the hammer. — McDaniel

The one that gets it done

The offer: RHP Emmet Sheehan, OF Zyhir Hope and SS Aidan West

Nobody has the combination of pitching and outfield prospect depth of the Dodgers, and that allows Los Angeles to provide a wholly unique package: a good major league starter, a top-50 prospect in Hope and a 19-year-old middle infielder who has scouts in the Arizona Complex League buzzing.

Sheehan would immediately slot into the Tigers’ rotation, Hope should be ready to join Riley Greene and Max Clark in Detroit’s outfield next year, and West adds necessary depth to the system. There are plenty of other options — Justin Wrobleski or River Ryan or Christian Zazueta as arms, Mike Sirota or Eduardo Quintero or Charles Davalan (but not Josue De Paula) in the outfield — but this version makes the most sense. It’s a wild overpay, but the possibility of three straight rings calls for that. — Jeff Passan

The GM says: Sigh. Every conversation I’ve had with sources about a potential Skubal deal starts with, “Well, if the Dodgers want to, they can/will …” because they have the options and the situation to make a deal pretty easy to put together, it just needs to be something Andrew Friedman wants to do. Luckily, I’m not dealing with Friedman or any real baseball executives in this exercise, so the bidding got a bit out of hand.

I prefer Wrobleski of that pitcher group because he’s left-handed and comes with two more years of control than Sheehan, so I might negotiate a bit to get the right mix of players here. Buzz over the past year or so is that Sheehan and Wrobleski were the two arms teams wanted from the Dodgers at the previous deadline and over the winter, but they wouldn’t part with either. Hope (34th on my top-50 update) is the best of the position players on offer — he has addressed his swing-and-miss issues this season, as a 21-year-old on pace for 30 homers in Double-A — while West is an intriguing young lefty-hitting infielder who might be above average across the board, but it’s very early.

On a deeper dive and negotiation, I might want to sub names in and out, but Passan is right: Even among three wild overpays, this one is the best. This could be the trade that launches the lockout, but the Dodgers have less pick/bonus cital than any team. It isn’t the CBA’s fault the Dodgers also have a good farm system. — McDaniel

Five years ago, the Trajekt Arc made its way into major league batting cages and exploded in popularity for its ability to precisely simulate any pitch from any pitcher. For hitters seeking to train their eyes against some of the world’s most devastating offerings, the machine became a revolutionary tool. And yet, when it comes to preparing for San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller, it is rendered useless.

Miller’s excellence, it turns out, can’t be ctured by AI.

“Trajekt is amazing,” Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy said, “but there’s certain things it can’t mimic. It can’t mimic that ball just absolutely exploding out of his hand. It’ll be a hundred, but it’s not going to be the same hundred.”

Muncy lived it on back-to-back nights in San Diego last month, during his first two encounters with Miller. Muncy struck out in his first plate pearance and managed a walk in his second, and through it all, he felt hopeless. As a left-handed hitter, Muncy has more time to pick the baseball up from Miller’s right hand. But instead of seeing she or spin to discern a fastball from a slider, one of the sport’s most disciplined sluggers saw what looked like a light bulb dashing toward him at implausible speed. Many of the pitches Muncy sees over the course of a season don’t feel nearly as fast as the scoreboard radar gun indicates.

With Miller, it’s the opposite.

“It says ‘101’ or ‘102’ when in reality it feels like 110,” Muncy said. “It feels impossible to put in play.”

Statistically, it almost has been.

While putting up a 1.01 ERA and going 18-for-18 in saves this season, Miller boasts a 49% strikeout rate, by far the highest among pitchers with at least 25 innings — second is Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski at 39.6% — and within striking distance of becoming one of just three relievers to ever strike out half their opposing batters. Of the 104 batters Miller has faced this season, 51 have struck out and only 12 have recorded hits. They’ve all been singles.

The last extra-base hit Miller allowed was a home run to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on Aug. 5, 2025, in his second pearance since coming over on another blockbuster trade by Padres general manager A.J. Preller. From there, he went on to set a franchise record with 34⅔ consecutive scoreless innings. The lowest slugging percentage allowed by a pitcher who accumulated at least 50 innings in a given season is .166, by Brandon Workman for the 2019 Boston Red Sox. Against Miller this season, opponents are slugging .132.

“At the end of the day, it’s the greatest closer in baseball right now,” Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla said. “There’s no doubt in my mind.”

Miller’s average fastball velocity of 101.2 mph easily leads the majors. He and Misiorowski have accounted for 33 of the 35 fastest pitches this season, a list headlined by the 103.8 mph four-seamer Miller unleashed against then-Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Alek Thomas on ril 25. But pitch velocity is only part of his success. The speed of his arm motion is just as important.

“It’s fast,” Niebla said, “but it’s short, too.”

Miller coils with his back hip during his delivery, like most pitchers, but also keeps his throwing shoulder turned inward, holding more tension and creating the effect of a tight rubber band.

“It’s not a long tension,” Niebla explained. “It’s a short tension that releases quickly. And what we see is the arm really flying through the zone.”

Miller’s extension is within the top 20% of major league pitchers, allowing his velocity to play up, but, as a rival pitching coach recently pointed out, the ball goes from inside his glove to out of his hand at seemingly unprecedented speed. When it’s thrown, the spin is so tight, the tunneling so precise, that his triple-digit fastball and upper-80s slider can be indiscernible.

“It’s such a difference in velocity, and when you realize it’s a slider, it’s too late,” Dodgers center fielder Andy Pages said in Spanish. “His arm moves so fast, so you think it’s coming hard, and then it comes out slower. And when you realize it’s slower, you’re already off-balance.”

Miller’s slider is more of a weon now than ever. He’s throwing it a career-high 55.5% of the time, and the expected slugging percentage against it is a measly .064. Of the 18 sliders that have been put in play this season, only one has been hit harder than 95 mph.

Also: There are two of them.

By shifting the placement of his thumb and the alignment of his wrist, Miller can slightly manipulate the vertical and horizontal movement of his slider. His is more vertical than most, but he can now make it sweep more away from righties and in on lefties on command. He experimented with it in 2024, when he made the full-time switch from starter to reliever for the Athletics and finished fourth in American League Rookie of the Year voting. He got better at it in 2025, while putting up a 2.63 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. And he might have mastered it in 2026.

“It helps a lot, just being able to throw it down to lefties and sweeping away from righties,” Miller said. “It almost becomes two different pitches.”

Miller has made 50 pearances (including the playoffs) since the Padres traded their best prospect, shortstop Leo De Vries, to acquire him from the A’s last July. Forty-seven have been scoreless. Before surrendering a run on two singles Friday — he’d checked into a 4-0 deficit because it had been a week since he pitched — the only runs scored off Miller this season were sparked by an errant pickoff throw and a controversial call off a swinging bunt.

His usage has reflected his team’s success. When the Padres stormed out of the gate to build a half-game lead on the Dodgers by May 18, Miller finished 20 of their 29 wins. They’re just 4-13 since, their shaky rotation and slumping offense finally catching up to them, and Miller has peared just five times. The Cy Young talk that surrounded him after a historic first month has faded.

Miller began this season by striking out 19-of-24 and 27-of-38. In ril, he allowed only nine of 54 batters to reach base safely. In May, when walks crept in more frequently, it was 12-of-42. Niebla likes to say he “went from historical to great,” which tends to encompass Miller’s fluctuations. When the bullpen gates open for him, his battles are usually waged internally. He isn’t competing against a hitter as much as he is fighting his own mechanics or repelling his own complacency.

“It’s the competitor in all of us,” Miller said. “We can always get a little bit better, we can always get a little bit finer. It’s a long season. Your dominance in one portion of it can easily be overshadowed by your lack of dominance in another. The consistency is the separator.”

In Miller, Niebla sees a pitcher who has become more disciplined in his preparation and more conscious of his delivery, allowing him to make quick adjustments when something goes awry. It has taken him to levels of dominance rarely seen.

Adjusted ERA, or ERA+, accounts for external factors to normalize the stat leaguewide, with 100 being the average. Someone with a 150 ERA+ — 50% better than league average — is considered elite. The greatest ERA+ ever belongs to Hall of Fame closer Mariano Rivera, who put up a career mark of 205.

This year, Miller’s ERA+ is 404.

“It feels very comforting to have him come in at the end of games,” Padres manager Craig Stammen, a former reliever himself, said. “I feel really good about how the game’s going to end. Will he be perfect the entire season? I don’t know. Humans aren’t perfect.”

But no human throws like Mason Miller — and no robot can, either.

Roberts was summoned from the bench by head coach Craig Bellamy in the 60th minute of Wales’ defeat by Romania.

The 64-c international’s fellow substitute David Brooks levelled proceedings just three minutes after entering the pitch to cancel out Florinel Coman’s opener at Stadionul Steaua.

But Adrian Rus netted an 80th minute winner as the men in yellow clinched their first victory since football legend Gheorghe Hagi was pointed boss in ril.

It means Wales are without a win in four matches in 2026 while their winless run in away friendlies was extended to 17 matches – a sequence stretching back to November 2008.

Despite the dispointing result, Roberts was delighted to be back on the pitch representing his national side once again.

“Personally for me, it’s brilliant to be back,” said the Burnley defender.

“Some people are hpy that I’m back, some people not so hpy, but I am back and hopefully I can keep ticking over during the summer and go again next season for club and country.”

TORONTO — Ernie Clement swerved to his right and dodged a tag attempt by Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who threw to first, assuming the Toronto Blue Jays baserunner would be called out for leaving the baseline.

Not so fast.

Instead of an inning-ending double play, umpires ruled that Clement was safe, and it turned out to be the key play as Toronto rallied for a 6-4 victory Sunday.

The Orioles led 4-1 in the sixth when Clement reached on Henderson’s fielding error. With runners at first and third, Brandon Valenzuela hit a bouncer up the middle.

Henderson fielded the ball and reached out to tag Clement, who got well out of the way, and Henderson threw to first to retire Valenzuela.

Second-base umpire Nic Lentz ruled Clement safe, saying the runner was getting out of the way to allow Henderson to field the ball and not trying to avoid a tag.

“The runner has the right to establish his basepath, and so Clement had established his basepath to avoid the fielder from potential interference,” Lentz told a pool reporter. “Even though Henderson reached out for a tag, Clement’s basepath was already established out there, going to the second base, so therefore it was not out of the baseline.”

Henderson called that decision “super frustrating.”

“That was a new one for me,” Henderson said. “That was definitely, I felt like, not a great call.”

Orioles manager Craig Albernaz came out to argue and said the umpires told him Henderson didn’t make enough of a tag attempt.

“I think when you stick your glove out to tag somebody, that’s an attempted tag,” Albernaz said. “There’s no rule about how far you have to extend your arm to tag somebody.”

Kazuma Okamoto, Andres Giménez and Nathan Lukes all followed with RBI hits to give Toronto the lead.

Crew chief and plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt said Clement moving out of Henderson’s path was “a very gentlemanly thing to do.”

“He was getting out of the way to allow the fielder to make the play towards first base,” Wendelstedt said.

Orioles right-hander Shane Baz exited after the hits from Okamoto and Giménez. Baz yelled at the umpires as he walked off the field.

“The only reason I’m not going to talk about that play is because I will get fined,” Baz said afterward. “That’s the only reason.”

The Orioles were further frustrated when, in the ninth, Jackson Holliday was called out for leaving the baseline between home and first as he tried to avoid a tag from pitcher Louis Varland.

“The runner had not established his basepath, and then he deviated more than 3 feet to avoid that tag,” Wendelstedt explained. “That’s when I called him out.”