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Sarah Urbut: Predicting Your Health Arc

Sarah Urbut, a physician and scientist at Harvard Medical School as well as the Massachusetts General Research Institute is an expert in health care. Her and her co-authors published in Nature a groundbreaking paper on the patient journeys of three different cohorts – the Mass General Brigham Patients, the UK Biobank and the All of Us Research Program – with a total of 683,000 patients, 348 illnesses, and 52 years of following up. Integration of electronic medical records with polygenic scores (N=36). A mathematical and biologically-driven AI model called ALADYNOULLI was created and validated. Each individual’s latent disease signatures were represented (N=21). The Figure shows an example of the dynamic journey a patient takes (the health arc). This is adapted from the original paper and made using NotebookLM. Here, the longitudinal narrative for each person is crucial. The risk is constantly shifting using a Gaussian algorithm, just like GPS navigation. Inverse probability weighting was used to address selection bias.
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These 20 temporal patterns signatures are from the UK Biobank, and they help provide the biological mechanism for a disease. This is shown in multiple cases, such as heart attacks, breast cancers, or depression. The same disease phenotype may be linked to several different genomic pathways. Signature 8 and signature 7, which are linked to metabolic disorders, inflammation or breast cancer as an example, could both be associated with the disease. The biological pattern can also be used for predicting rare diseases and detecting medication failures (e.g. SSRI treatments for depression).
As shown in the figure below, this model has been used to identify genomic signatures of different diseases.
The model was able to predict 1 and 10 year risk for diseases on an individual basis and outperformed commonly used calculators, such as the GAIL breast cancer model (0.783) or the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE), which is routinely employed for clinical predictions. ALADYNOULLI’s accuracy and precision were also superior to the Delphi-2M model, which I discussed here.
It is difficult to understand the ALADYNOULLI report without a solid math background. The infographic summary below, created by Notebook LM, may help you to understand its key findings.
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How to Predict Your Health Course in Context
This new model adds to other reports such as Delphi 2M and APOLLO that have predicted future health outcomes up to twenty years in advance. These models differed from one another in terms of inputs, the way patient data was represented (tokens or embeddings), and their prediction outcomes. I summarized these differences briefly below. The inputs, which are likely to be additive and complementary, will allow for better prediction accuracy the longer and deeper the patient data is.
These models can be enhanced with specific diseases (e.g. Cancer, asthma, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disease) are all included in these models.
Medical forecasting is now a major focus of patient care. This will only continue to grow. We could give a general idea of the risk a person has for Alzhiemer’s, but we couldn’t predict when that disease would occur. What is the difference between 65 and 95 years old? Age 65 or 95? It’s a big difference. It is also important to be able to use counterfactuals and what-if scenarios to help individuals reduce their risk or delay the appearance of a disease. ALADYNOULLI brings a different approach, several patient cohorts and new findings to the medical field. This could not have been achieved with multimodal artificial intelligence.
Please note: This post was written by me. The only AI that was used to create 3 figures by using Notebook LM were Figures 1,3 and 4, as indicated. The Figure 2 is taken from the Supplemental Information of the Paper. This post is not a COI for me.
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31 dead, nearly 600 ill due to lung disease linked to stone countertop exposure: study

California has identified 600 cases of deadly silicosis among its workers who have fabricated engineered stone countertops in the past year, according to a recent public health report.
California Department of Public Health released the results on Wednesday, noting 592 cases including 31 deaths and 65 people who had undergone lung transplants.
According to the report, “Silicosis” is an incurable lung disease that progresses due to inhalation. Over the last two decades, there has been a rising risk among those who fabricate engineered stones countertops that contain crystalline silica.
The report stated that engineered-stone slabs sold as quartz countertops can contain up to 90% crystalline silicon. The report states that workers can be exposed to silica when they are cutting or finishing counters.
Health officials noted that the cases from January 2019 to June 2026 are notable because of their relatively young patients, brief exposure period, and rapid disease progression.
According to the department, workers diagnosed with silicosis at a median of 46 years old died by silicosis.
According to the report, almost all the patients diagnosed with the disease were Latino men.
California expanded its surveillance program after identifying the first case in 2019. The report states that the worker was a counter fabrication worker. The report stated that the worker had been diagnosed at 32 and passed away from respiratory failure when he turned 38.
Report said California has strengthened silica regulation and increased surveillance, however regulators are still having difficulty enforcing the workplace rules.
The report states that “despite these interventions, dangerous worker exposures continue in California.” California’s surveillance of silicosis has been expanded. However, the real burden of the disease is still underestimated because it relies on the passive reporting of diseases diagnosed. Active screening of workers and doctors has improved case detection, but screening remains inconsistent and misdiagnosis is common.

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A Study Revealed Doing This Highly Enjoyable Activity Every Day Could Lower Your Dementia Risk

Listen to music and turn it up: According to a recent study, older adults who listen or play regular music are at a lower risk for developing dementia.
Researchers from Monash University, Australia, analyzed data of more than 10,000 adults aged 70 or older and discovered that people who listen to music every day have a lower risk of dementia. This is compared to those who only occasionally, never or rarely listen to music.
One hobby that is great for an aging brain, according to a study
The frequent music listeners also had higher scores in cognitive tests and better memory for episodic events (which is used to recall everyday, specific events).
Singing and playing an instrument were both associated with a reduction of 35% in the risk for dementia. Regularly listening to music and playing it also reduced dementia risk by 33% and cognitive impairment risk by 22%.
Music is a low-effort, easy way for older adults to reduce their anxiety about dementia. This disease affects seven million people worldwide and becomes more prevalent as the life expectancy rises.
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The study’s authors have some hypotheses about the possible benefits of music on the brain. These are backed up by previous research.
Emma Jaffa is a Monash Honors Biomedical Science student and co-author of the study. She worked with Joanne Ryan a Monash professor of biological neuroscience.
The new study revealed that this highly enjoyable activity could lower your dementia risk
She told HuffPost that “previous studies have shown it increases processing speed, language and memory.” Plus, socialization with other people helps to protect brain health.
Jaffa was particularly interested in the results because she is a singer and bassist.
She is also a fan of research which can be used to help people. I think this is what attracted me to the topic. She said that it was a combination of her hobby and the opportunity to share actionable insight with others.
The most common question Jaffa gets about this study is “Are there some types of music that are more beneficial than others?” Coltrane and Clapton, for example, have a superior cognitive function.
She said that while she does not have an answer, (participants were never asked what music they were listening too), it is something she would like to investigate in the future. It would be interesting to see if music listening can reduce the cognitive decline of those under 70.
Health: Chronic inflammation is the cause of 9 issues people attribute to aging
Researchers like Ryan and Jaffa have no reason to be surprised that they are researching this subject, considering how debilitating dementia symptoms can often be. The condition can cause speech problems, memory loss and mood swings.
A study published in the American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry in October found that having a strong sense of purpose can protect you from dementia. It makes the brain stronger and reduces the risk of it developing. What are other ways that research has shown to help support resilience in the brain during aging? Exercise, especially moderate to vigorous activity and spending time with friends — ideally while listening to good music — are all ways to support cognitive resilience as we age.
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Want to protect your brain as you age? Neurologist Dr Arun Shah shares 3 lifestyle changes that may lower dementia risk

The term dementia is usually associated with aging, but cognitive declines that affect daily living should not be dismissed simply as part of aging. Memory, communication, behavior and ability to carry out everyday tasks can be affected by the condition.
Arun Shah Director – Neurosciences at Sir H.N. Reliance Foundation Hospital explained that factors like high blood pressure and diabetes can impact brain health, and increase dementia risk. Also read: “I drink black tea daily”: An oncologist shares six research-backed health benefits from longevity to brain health.
Dementia is the loss of cognitive function caused by abnormalities in the brain. Memory loss, confusion and poor executive functions are all symptoms of dementia. “Dr Shah stated that dementia is not part of normal aging.
Brain damage can be caused by high blood pressure
One of the most important factors that can lead to vascular issues in the brain is high blood pressure. Uncontrolled blood pressure can cause damage to blood vessels, and reduce the blood flow and oxygen supply to the brain.
The’silent killer’ is high blood pressure, which leads to multiple strokes that lead to vascular dementia.
Diabetes, excessive alcohol intake, high LDL cholesterol, and prior brain injuries are all risk factors.
Blood vessels can be damaged by smoking
The blood vessels that feed the brain can be affected by smoking. The chemicals in smoke from cigarettes can cause damage to the blood vessels lining, and also contribute to inflammation and oxidative stress.
Smoking can raise blood pressure by damaging blood vessels that supply the brain. “Toxins found in tobacco smoke can also damage blood vessel lining,” said Dr Shah. Dr Shah added that smoking’s oxidative damage and chronic inflammation could also be contributing to the changes in Alzheimer’s brain.
The metabolic health of a person is also important
Diabetes, obesity and high blood cholesterol are all conditions that can have a negative impact on vascular health. They also contribute to the inflammation of various organs. These changes can affect blood flow to the brain and lead to cognitive issues.
There are many factors that influence blood flow and vessels. “All of these factors lead to a reduced supply of oxygen in the brain and chronic dementia risks,” said Dr Shah.
Susceptibility can be influenced by genetics. A family history of dementia can increase the risk. This is especially true when it’s combined with other factors such as uncontrolled diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol.
Three changes in lifestyle that can help
Although not all cases of dementia are preventable, modifiable factors that can affect brain and vascular function can help to support the overall health. The three most important lifestyle changes that can help to prevent dementia include: quitting smoking, controlling blood pressure, and living a balanced, healthy life, according to Dr Shah.
Balanced lifestyles include regular physical exercise, nutritious eating, enough sleep, and the management of chronic conditions like diabetes, hypertension, and high cholesterol.
Protecting brain health begins long before any memory issues appear. Maintaining cognitive health can include keeping cardiovascular and metabolic risks under control.
Arun B. Shah is Director of Neurosciences Department at Sir H. N. Reliance Foundation Hospital. He is also the director of the Comprehensive Stroke Centre at Sir H. N. Reliance Foundation Hospital and offers care in its Memory and Multiple Sclerosis Clinics. In 1972, Dr. Shah graduated from Seth GS Medical College, KEM Hospital in Mumbai. Later, he earned a MD in Internal Medicine from the same school and a DM in Neurology.
Please note that this article is only intended to provide information and does not replace professional medical advice. If you have any concerns about your medical condition, always consult with your doctor.

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Could this addicting drug be the ‘next longevity breakthrough’?

Can a drug that is notorious for causing addiction be the key to extending life?
Dave Asprey is the founder of biohacking and he has highlighted research which suggests that it might be.
Afrin is a nasal spray that can be purchased over-the-counter at any drug store. This nasal spray can be purchased at most drug stores and is a lifesaver. It opens up the airways, allowing you to breathe more easily.
Every label will warn you not to use the product for longer than three consecutive days.
When the body adapts quickly to a drug, it becomes dependent on that medication to maintain airways. When you stop taking the medication, you may find that your sinuses swell up much more than they did before. You may be tempted to reach for another spray of Afrin for relief.
I’m taking Afrin to prolong my life. Asprey joked in an Instagram message. That’s not a good idea.
Researchers are seeing signs that the active ingredient of the drug, oxymetazoline could be used in the future for keeping our cells functional and young.
Asprey claims that a simple solution, which is available and familiar to most people, could lead to the “next breakthrough in longevity.”
He wrote: “Some of our biggest gains in longevity will be from drugs that are already on the shelf. Not from new molecules.” I’ve said this for many years.
What is the ageing effect of Afrin?
Researchers at Northeastern University examined 6,442 different drugs in order to determine how they could impact on 11 biological processes known as “hallmarks for aging.”
This includes changes in whether genes are “on” and “off”, (called epigenetic alteration), as well as cells that lose the ability to remove proteins from within, which allows them to build up.
Afrin’s active ingredient, oxymetazoline (also known as Afrin), was found to help in one of the “hallmarks”, cell-to-cell communications.
The aging process affects the way cells transmit, receive and process chemical signals across the entire body. It can have a variety of adverse effects, ranging from a weakened immune system to muscle loss and bone loss.
The Oxymetazoline found in Sinex eyedrops, nasal sprays and creams to treat redness could also be used in this way.
Harvard researchers are currently conducting research on the possible effects of this drug on cells. Researchers at Harvard are currently researching how oxymetazoline can improve communication between cells.
For the time being, there is no human research. The authors also noted that this is not a cure for aging, but rather “a roadmap” that can be tested on cells, animals, and ultimately, human beings.
Bnaya gross, the lead author of this book, said: “I don’t think we have reached that point yet.” We are “moving toward an era of precision.”
Can Aspirin also be used as an anti-aging remedy?
This study identified a variety of drugs that may help slow down aging.
Intercellular communication is one of the five signs of aging that Aspirin affects, and it’s also affected by oxymetazoline.
The nutrient sensor can also help with cell senescence, which is when cells stop growing but don’t actually die.
As with oxymetazoline in humans, no anti-aging effects have been proven.

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Obesity drugs show early promise against PMOS

Charlotte Touzalin, a teenager at the time, began to struggle with unwanted facial hair and weight gain. These symptoms had plagued Charlotte’s mother for years and no one could figure out what was wrong.
Touzalin is an 18 year old college student in Colorado. “I couldn’t figure out why I was gaining weight or why some of my friends did not have to shave.
Touzalin Schultz and her mother, Anne Schultz were both diagnosed with polyendocrine ovarian metabolic syndrome. This hormonal disorder affects 1 in 8 women around the world. Touzalin, unlike her mother, is starting young adulthood full of hope. She took part in a research study that tested blockbuster GLP-1 medications as a possible treatment.
These medications for obesity may work to treat PMOS, not just by helping with weight loss. They also improve insulin resistance and hormone balance. This is the key to this disease. It was previously called polycystic Ovarian Syndrome, but it has been renamed to PMOS earlier this year in order to focus on the ovaries instead of cysts.
Touzalin said, “We have to be better at managing it.” Dr. Melanie Cree has been leading three studies that tested GLP-1 medications for PMOS. We are finding that they’re incredibly effective, and this is really exciting in terms of improving the symptoms for women who have PMOS.
PMOS can be a strange and frustrating disease
Touzalin’s and her mother’s frustrating, long journey with PMOS are common.
Doctors may dismiss symptoms that overlap or vary with others, and doctors can take years to diagnose the condition. This disorder runs in families and affects many women, but not all. There is no specific cause for this disorder, and there aren’t any known treatments. Instead, the symptoms can be managed by taking birth-control pills to control periods or exercising and eating healthy.
PMOS is primarily caused by two hormones: testosterone and insulin. Testosterone, for example, helps to maintain muscle mass, sexual desire and bone density.
Cree, PMOS Clinic Director at Children’s Hospital Colorado, explained that most women who have PMOS are insulin resistant, meaning their hormones don’t function as they should. The high insulin levels can directly affect the ovaries of many women. This causes them to produce more testosterone, causing problems such as skipped periods and severe acne.
Schultz (43), didn’t know that the disorder existed until she began experiencing irregular periods at age 18 and noticed bloating. She also suffered from the same symptoms that her daughter did, as well as ovaries problems and miscarriages. PMOS is more common.
Schultz was given several diagnoses, before she learned that PMOS affected her around the time when her daughter also faced similar issues.
Schultz remembered discussing Touzalin’s symptoms with her pediatrician, who had been treating Touzalin for binge-eating and ADHD.
Schultz said to the doctor, “There has got to be another thing going on.”
Touzalin says she “felt heard for the first” time when a nurse-practitioner began putting things together several years ago. Cree diagnosed her definitively last year.
It was like an angel appeared to Schultz. We finally found an answer, and a way forward for her.
Touzalin took semaglutide every week for 10 months in Cree’s research. Her periods returned to normal and the abnormal hair growth stopped. She stopped constantly gaining weight and felt satisfied after meals for the first time.
She said, “I was a happier person.” “I felt like a normal person.”
Insurance companies continue to put barriers up while research continues on GLP-1s and PMOS.
Touzalin’s results were not unique. The study was published in Fertility and Sterility in June. Early results showed that eight out of eleven participants who completed the test lost more than 10% of their weight. Median weight loss was 42 pounds, and testosterone levels dropped by 52%. Six of the women experienced more than one period, and four went on to monthly cycles.
Cree conducted three studies in which women taking GLP-1s shed more pounds than their control group counterparts, while testosterone levels, blood sugar, and insulin also dropped. The study with Touzalin focuses on semaglutide injections, while the two other studies looked at exenatide pills and semaglutide tablets.
Similar positive findings have been reported in other studies around the world. Despite the small size of these studies, researchers believe GLP-1s have already shown promising results in treating metabolic problems associated with PMOS. Some researchers say that the research is still uncertain and further studies are being conducted.
While research is ongoing, increasing numbers of doctors are prescribing drugs for PMOS “off-label” and observing improvements among their patients. Insurance coverage can be a challenge because these drugs have not been approved for treating the condition.
Endocrinologist Dr. Rana Malek of the University of Maryland’s Medical System said, “I take these medications a lot.”
She said that she uses these pills to aid in weight loss among patients who have insulin resistance.
The results can vary. GLP-1s are not for everyone, and they can cause side effects like nausea or constipation. Weight can come back if people stop taking GLP-1s.
Malek says that they are still a great help to many PMOS sufferers, but it is frustrating for them not to be available due insurance problems. They are not only unapproved by PMOS but some insurance companies also don’t pay for them to lose weight.
Touzalin herself recently encountered this obstacle. She no longer receives free GLP-1s after finishing her participation in the study and was forced to stop taking them by June.
Schultz wants to be able to take her medications again. Schultz is fighting her insurance company and also has a plan B to obtain medications via a pharmaceutical company’s program. Although she would like to use GLP-1s on her own, her daughter is her priority.
Touzalin dreams of a time when every PMOS sufferer can receive the necessary treatment.
She said, “It could be very helpful to a number of people.”
___
This story was contributed by Brittany Peterson, a video journalist with AP in Denver.
___
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and Howard Hughes Medical Institute Department of Science Education provide support to the Associated Press Health and Science Department. All content is the sole responsibility of The Associated Press.

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