Politics
What to watch in blockbuster Michigan primary and suspect arrested in Spokane wildfire: Morning Rundown
Michigan’s primaries will reveal the deepest divisions within the Democratic Party. Unknown man arrested for a wildfire burning in Washington. A defunct SpaceX Rocket is currently on collision course with the Moon.
What you need to know about today
Democratic divisions and Trump’s support: what to look out for in the primaries today
Today, in primaries held across five states the deepest divisions of the Democratic Party were on display.
The Michigan Democratic Senate race between Rep. Haley Stevens (D) and Abdul El-Sayed (D) is an important test of the factions that are fighting within the Democratic Party. This campaign has been polarizing over Israel and pits insiders versus outsiders as well as pragmatists versus idealists. This matchup also takes place in an important Senate battleground that Democrats must win to have any chance of controlling the chamber.
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Stevens is supported by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, who holds the current seat in the Senate. Gretchen Whitmer and a pro Israel lobbying group have endorsed Stevens. Her campaign has been centered around issues that affect the average family. El-Sayed has the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. El-Sayed supports liberal policies such as the abolishment of ICE. These endorsements go beyond Michigan and give a glimpse of what the Democratic presidential campaign in 2028 could be like.
Divides in the Democratic Party are also evident in elections in Kansas, Missouri and Washington.
Trump’s endorsed Republicans also face challenges. In the Michigan governor’s election, Trump’s biggest endorsement comes from him. Trump has supported Rep. John James in the Michigan governor’s race. He is up against Perry Johnson, a businessman who will run for president of the United States as a Republican candidate in 2024.
What else is there to see in the primaries today?
Steve Kornacki, NBC News chief data analyst, dives into Michigan’s historic primary. The Data Dive is a brand-new, exclusive newsletter for subscribers that focuses on trends, numbers and statistics shaping major stories leading up to the midterm elections. You can read today’s issue here.
Legal loophole which could bring back the “anti-weaponization” fund
The Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to approve Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general after Sens. John Cornyn, Thom Tillis and others have expressed concerns over the Trump Administration’s anti-weaponization fund. Blanche’s nomination would be put to vote by the Senate if the committee approved it.
Blanche declared on Sunday that the fund was “rescinded” and would have no effect. But there is a loophole in the agreement that may allow the fund to be revived. Blanche signed only the order of rescission, but not the agreement which established the fund. According to the agreement, “the deal may only be modified with the written consent of the parties.”
Cornyn & Tillis’s comments about Blanche.
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Subscribers: Trump claimed that Jeanine Pirro had “choked” when she dropped the case brought by the federal government against a canoeist accused by the Obama administration of damaging the Reflecting pool.
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ICE agents have doubled the number of arrests made at airports across the country, averaging between 20 and 40 per day compared with 10 or less per day in previous years.
Trump calls the Iranian regime “unbelievably deceitful”
In a Truth Social post, Donald Trump called the Iranian regime “unbelievably treacherous” a day before he stopped new attacks on Iran. He also said that the two nations would be holding talks. Esmaeil baghaei, the spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Affairs Ministry told reporters earlier that there were no negotiations between Iran and America.
After posting on social media about the talks, Trump informed reporters in the White House the “talks with Iran are going on now”. He claimed that the Strait of Hormuz will be open for marine traffic as of today.
Trump has threatened and then cancelled big attacks. The latest development is that the war has expanded and now threatens to have even more negative effects on the global economy.
Latest news on Iran’s war.
Spokane fire: Man charged with arson
The 37-year old resident of Spokane in Washington was charged with manslaughter for a prior conviction. This wildfire, the biggest of three that have ravaged the area, has burned over 8,000 acres of land and destroyed 700 buildings. Aaron Farinacci, 37, was arrested yesterday following a court’s signature of a warrant for first-degree arson. Spokane County sheriff John Nowels confirmed this.
Nowels reported that a police officer said the witness saw a man in proximity to the Old Trails Fire just before its start on Saturday morning. Farinacci was questioned by deputies that morning, but ultimately released. On Sunday, detectives from major crimes were able link the suspect with the fire.
What else do we know?
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Subscribers: Utah’s series of catastrophes, including drought, heat, food, and fires, were not a random occurrence. Scientists have warned of this type of snowball-effect for years.
Staff Pick: SpaceX is about to crash a rocket… where? !
The defunct rocket part from SpaceX is set to crash into the surface of the Moon tomorrow at speeds up to 5,500mph. This will happen around 2:35 am. ET. It is only the second time that a rocket has crashed into the surface of the moon.
It is the upper stage from a Falcon 9 that was used to launch two moon landers in January 2025. The booster, weighing 10,800 pounds, has remained in orbit since then. It is likely that the spent rocket will hit the sunlit side of the moon, most likely on the western edge when viewed from Earth. It is likely that the impact will create a flash. However, sunlight may obscure any images from telescopes on Earth.
This unusual event has reignited the debate about sustainability in space. In light of the renewed attention on the Moon, I spoke to space experts to find out what is needed to safely handle orbiting debris. Denise Chow is a science reporter
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What we know of the Idaho victims: A sobriety-promoting man and a worker at In-N’-Out.
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Politics
Todd Blanche makes plea for unity at Justice Department
Todd Blanche, the Attorney General of the Justice Department on Thursday addressed the workforce and pledged that he would make it “more loyal to its highest values than when I first found it”.
Blanche delivered her speech in the Robert F. Kennedy Department of Justice Building’s great hall to calm down a staff that had been stung by dismissals, retaliation in court, and allegations of political deals on behalf of the President.
Blanche promised, “I will be the leader of this department in a way that is honest.” Blanche said, “I will stay focused on the core mission of our department, upholding the rule of the law in a fair and impartial manner, keeping this great nation safe and protecting the rights of all citizens.”
Blanche, who has been acting attorney general since April, was confirmed to be the new attorney general last Saturday. The speech was Blanche’s first official address to Justice Department employees since Donald Trump addressed the staff in March 2025. He described himself as “chief law-enforcement officer of our country,” and vowed to remove what he termed “rogue agents and corrupt forces” within the government.
Blanche, in his speech, echoed the attorneys general that came before him. The Attorney General thanked law enforcement agents and prosecutors for their work every day, and reiterated the Justice Department’s core principle “to enforce the law without favor or fear.” Trump was only mentioned once.
To some, Blanche’s speech seemed to wipe away more than an entire year of turmoil. Blanche pledged that he would “always respect” the role of judiciary and that a “performative attack that undermines the institutions we have sworn uphold” was not acceptable.
Attorney General’s message seemed to focus on unity and fostering healthy discussion between “people of different backgrounds, political views, life experiences, etc.”
Blanche stated, “I believe that disagreement is the only thing we can do as a Department to make better decisions.” I think that the administration of justice is fair and we can do our job if there’s disagreement.
I will make mistakes in my decisions. “I will make mistakes in everything I do. “No one would do that,” said he. “But, I can promise that I’ll work just as hard as you. “I promise that I’ll listen to your ideas or any adjustments we may need.”
Stacey Young is the Executive Director of Justice Connection. This group provides support to current and former Justice Department staff. She released a statement agreeing with Blanche’s remarks, but questioning whether Blanche would follow them through.
She said that DOJ is successful when diverse people from different backgrounds, political views, and experiences, put DOJ’s mission before their own.
Young said that “under his leadership, DOJ career employees have been terminated because of their background, perceived politics and their fierce resistance in conference rooms across the nation.” Young said that “thousands more” have quit because the leadership consistently has violated Blanche’s principles: prosecuting criminal defendants only based on facts and law, holding accountable those who attack the police and respecting courts.
The story has been updated to include additional information.
Politics
Massive polling misses in Wisconsin, Michigan primaries
According to the most recent public polls, Francesca Hong should have won Tuesday’s Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor by about 20 points. The Democratic socialist, however, lost the primary by less than one percentage point.
Hong’s shocking loss to more moderate Milwaukee County executive David Crowley was the latest of a series of huge polling misses during primary contests leading up to the midterm elections in 2026. These misses are occurring at a time when more money is being poured into the election process. This has been emphasized by the rise of prediction markets, which allow widespread bets on elections.
On Tuesday evening, in Minnesota, the Lt. Peggy Flanagan beat Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) by almost 20 percentage points, despite recent polls showing the Democratic Senate contest as tight. Abdul El-Sayed, a Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, won by just 1 point last week, despite polls showing him ahead of Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich).
These polling mistakes are occurring as the progressives of the Democratic Party gain ground in primaries across the nation, which could change the way one of the most important political parties in America approaches economics. Hong, who was a democratic socialist, pushed a radical left agenda, including government-run supermarkets, higher taxes for the wealthy, and taxpayer-subsidized child care.
Kyle Kondik is the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, at University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. He said that there are a number of factors which could have affected the Wisconsin polls. This includes the possibility that progressive whites who represent the core of the leftist candidates are more likely to respond positively to polls than other Democrats. Wisconsin does not allow registration based on party affiliation, so its primary elections are also open. This can make it difficult to determine who actually votes.
This was also a crazy campaign, with many changes likely in the final days. Kondik suggested that the progressive Abdul El-Sayed (D)’s victory in Michigan Senate primaries, as well as the subsequent Democratic woes about his electability may have contributed to Crowley’s win in Wisconsin.
He said that “Hong expanded her national visibility down the stretch in the campaign and her media appeared did not do much to dispel notions of her being a risky candidate for Democrats.”
A big miss for prediction markets
Wisconsin’s prediction markets also had a terrible night. Like polls, the markets portrayed Hong as having a much stronger race than it actually was once votes began to roll in.
Hong was 95% certain to win on Kalshi as of Monday evening, while Crowley had less than 5%. Polymarket, in a post that has since been deleted on X, said on Tuesday, just before the polls closed, that Hong had a 96% chance of winning.
Polymarket’s spokesperson confirmed to CNBC the posting was removed because of the language used in the description.
In Michigan, El-Sayed had a greater than 90% chance of winning the Democratic Senate nomination before the polls closed last week. This was despite his narrow win.
Lakshya JAIN, the co-founder and director of The Argument’s political data division, as well as the founder of SplitTicket, a website that provides electoral data, expressed frustration at what happened on prediction markets after the polls in Wisconsin closed on Tuesday evening.
Jain stated that “the movement I saw was the biggest concern.” The odds of Hong winning were either increasing or decreasing as the results came in from all over the state. He didn’t believe that individual votes would have a significant impact on her chances. There was no good reason why the markets would move in her favor if she were to win.
Jain, however, said that prediction markets can be useful when it comes time to vote, especially because they are able to include factors not often included in polls.
Tarek Mnsour, Kalshi’s co-founder and chief executive officer, spoke to X about the platform’s results.
He wrote: “Don’t let the headlines about ‘prediction market’ predictions go by. A 5% chance doesn’t necessarily mean that it will not happen.” It means that it will happen one in twenty times. The markets would collapse if 5% of candidates did not win.
Minnesota voters also delivered a surprising result. The prediction markets had Flanagan with a roughly 70% chance of winning the nomination for the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota Tuesday night. This was a good result for the traders.
Flip Pidot is the chief strategy officer of PredictIt. He also serves on the Coalition for Political Forecasting’s board.
He said that people still see the poll barometers as their North Star. Everyone was shocked that both polls had been so off, but the markets were what they are. “They’re a mirror of the public opinion.” The good thing about the markets is that they provide an incentive to more traders, who are more likely to be accurate due to potential financial rewards.
Democrats’ mixed bag
The results of the election were a mixed bag, with Democrats facing a surge in progressives across the nation.
Hong’s lack of support compared to public opinion polls could dampen the belief that the progressives are in control of the Democratic Party.
Kondik stated that “the Democratic establishment” is not as powerful as it used to be, but the party leaders still have power.”
Politics
What the polls missed in Wisconsin’s primary and David Ellison threatens to uproot Paramount: Morning Rundown
Pre-election polls failed to accurately predict David Crowley’s victory in Wisconsin’s Democratic Governor Primary. Karoline leavitt will step down from her position as White House Press Secretary. Paramount’s owner, a billionaire, has threatened to relocate the company from California.
What you need to know about today
The Wisconsin Primary Results Didn’t Match the Polls
David Crowley’s victory in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor was among the state’s most unlikely comebacks.
On July 8, the Milwaukee County Executive dropped out of this race. After a panic-filled moment, he became his party’s candidate five weeks later.
Here is the Morning Rundown, your weekday morning newsletter. Subscribe here and receive it directly in your mailbox.
Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist candidate, was defeated by the moderate Francesca Hong with fewer than one percentage point. Hong led the pre-election polls by almost 20 points. Although she may have exceeded the expectations of a leftist candidate running in a swing state with a strong purple hue, her polling numbers were far below those expected.
You might think that polls simply underestimate the popularity of democratic socialist and progressive candidates. What’s going on in reality is much more complex.
Primary elections are often more undecided than general elections, as people tend to pay less attention. This means that those voters who still haven’t made their mind up on election day may be persuaded. The variables of race, education and who shows up on Election Day can make it difficult to guess who someone will vote for.
The combination of several factors can cause a miss.
You can read the complete analysis by clicking here.
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Karoline leavitt resigns as White House Press Secretary
Trump has announced that White House Press Secretary KarolineLeavitt is leaving the White House at the end this month in order to spend more time “with her beautiful children and family”. Leavitt was the youngest White House Press Secretary in history. She has been in this role since Trump began his second term.
Leavitt said that, after giving birth to her child, she felt “in my heart” she could not balance being the “best mom for my two children.”
Learn more about Leavitt.
Hollywood shaken by the threat of Paramount’s move
David Ellison, the CEO of Paramount Skydance who has alarmed Hollywood by his announcement that he would be willing to relocate Paramount Skydance out west if it was necessary to complete his $110 Billion deal to purchase Warner Bros. Discovery. Ellison told a source that he will begin to move the company by Oct. 1, if California Attorney General Rob Bonta does not open settlement negotiations over the antitrust challenges against the merger.
Bonta who leads the suit involving eleven other states accused Ellison that he was “blackmailing” the state in order to force the deal. A person from the film industry called a Paramount deal a “travesty,” and groups have urged the two parties to reach a settlement.
Even if Ellison follows through on his threats, it would be difficult to uproot one of Hollywood’s oldest studios along with the workforce and years of production infrastructure. Here’s why.
Europe basks under total solar eclipse
The first solar eclipse in nearly three decades was witnessed by millions across Europe, including parts of Spain’s northern region. Raf Sanchez, NBC News, described the eclipse to a cheering crowd at Villalibado in Spain: “It’s like someone has punched a big hole in the skies.”
Photos from this celestial event
Staff pick: The WNBA has grown more than ever. What’s going on off-court is getting the most attention.
The WNBA was meant to be a season of celebration. The league’s survival was questioned thirty years ago. Now, it brings in record revenues and attracts audiences that want to see the top women’s pro basketball players. In the middle of the season the basketball in the league has taken a step back. What was the WNBA’s response to controversies and criticism? What was the WNBA’s response to these controversies? This isn’t the only time. — Andrew Greif, sports reporter
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Politics
NPR’s Newsmakers
Rep. Ro. Khanna (D-Calif.), fresh off his tour of Pennsylvania where he was born, has said that he “thinks seriously” about running as president for the United States in 2028. He called this race “a breaking point in America,” which could result in a destructive revolt or new economic order.
Khanna, 49 years old, told Steve Inskeep that if we didn’t change dramatically we might break in an interview with NPR Newsmakers’ video podcast. I’m the nice one. Just a social contract change is all I want. You’ve met them in their 30s, right? They are after pitchforks, torches and other weapons. “They want to take your heads… political.”
California’s lawmaker, who admitted that he is only 2% on the Democratic presidential ballots, does not enjoy the same name recognition as some of his other competitors. This includes former vice president Kamala Harris or Gov. Gavin Newsom. His profile has been steadily elevated through his years of activism on a variety of issues, from Epstein to wealth taxes. His possible presidential bid comes at a time when the Democratic Party’s left and center-wing candidates are fighting over differences in ideology.
Khanna stated that Democrats should nominate someone progressive to bring about “America’s Next New Deal”, as technology is a revolution which has enriched a few people and could destabilize the labor market.
These people would have been conquerors in another era. Khanna said that tech billionaires Elon Thiel, Mark Zuckerberg, and Elon Musk think they are above us. When I am most inclined to leave, I remember that I know them. “I understand economics and will be able to face them with courage.”
Trump has started calling all Democrats “communists” after recent victories by Democratic socialist candidates in New York and Colorado, as well as Michigan. Steve Inskeep of NPR asked Khanna if he was concerned that this rhetoric could stick, and harm his party’s chances in midterms and general elections.
Khanna, Khanna’s spokesperson on American politics said that labels don’t usually matter. Khanna cited Trump’s communist label. We’ve called the fascist guy for 10 years, and he has won two terms.
Khanna said that people care more about healthcare, employment, childcare at an affordable price and whether or not a candidate supports them.
Politics
Extremism expert charged in case targeting Southern Poverty Law Center’s use of informants
Former Southern Poverty Law Center official faces federal charges over payments made by the Southern Poverty Law Center to informants that provided information on extremist groups. The Justice Department filed the case.
Her attorney confirmed that Heidi Beirich was charged at federal court in Montgomery Alabama. Todd Blanche, Attorney General of Alabama said in a separate press conference that Beirich was accused “of being part of an effort to open bank account and fictitious company names” and to make payments to individuals that weren’t accurate.
Michael J. Proctor, Beirich’s attorney, said that a free society would not silence political opponents through the use of justice. Heidi Beirich is a woman who has devoted her life to combating hate groups, extremist movements, such as the KKK and neo Nazis. She has fought these ugly and hateful extremists, who have used violence and intimidation to create a more fair, safe, and just America. The threats against her life and the decades of successful dismantling of hate groups speak volumes. “She has been charged with this crime.”
Beirich was the former Chief Financial Officer at the Southern Poverty Law Center. Indictment claims Beirich was “in a romance” with an informant that infiltrated National Alliance, a neo Nazi organization. Beirich received more than $1,2 million in a period of time.
These charges are part of a Justice Department effort to bring the nonprofit accountable for alleged payments made through shell companies without donor knowledge, according to prosecutors.
The Southern Povery Law Center, however, said federal authorities knew about the use of informants by the organization. They also claimed that they mischaracterized this program. And that Trump’s administration was targeting them because of their politics. In the past, the group claimed that the federal government used the information collected by their informants.
The Montgomery-based nonprofit organization for civil rights was established in 1971. Initially, it focused on the enforcement civil rights laws throughout the South. Over time, however the organization has grown. Conservative critics have often attacked the group, claiming it is political biased.
The U.S. district judge Emily Marks refused to dismiss the case brought against the SPLC last week, ruling that the SPLC failed to present objective evidence that it was targeted by the Justice Department because of its First Amendment rights.
Abbe Lowell is an attorney for the SPLC. She said that the Beirich case was “as factually and legally flawed” as previous attacks. It reflected a “desperate government facing a weak case and scrambling to do something, anything, as we near trial.”
Lowell stated that the SPLC “didn’t lie to donors or mislead banks with which it had business, and their informant program saved lives and prevented violence.”
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