Sir John Curtice says election results show fragmentation in UK politics3 hours agoSir John CurticeProfessor in politics, StrathclydeUniversityBBCThe results of the local elections held overnight have confirmed, at least for the moment, that electoral politics in Britain is highly fragmented. Reformers are definitely the winners. The party has gained the most seats, 30% of those so far declared. In a sample of 500 wards, where the BBC collected detailed voting figures, the BBC found that the party had an average vote of 26%. This is not a high number but it puts them ahead of all their rivals. In wards that voted Leave by more than 60% in 2015, Reform’s support averaged 41%. Live results from English councils. In contrast, Reform has won only 10% of the vote in places where Brexit was less than 49%. The one place where it has gained control of a council, Newcastle-under-Lyme, voted by nearly two-to-one in favour of Brexit.The Greens’ success was more modest. The Greens have received an average of 16% in the wards that have been declared, which is in line with their polling results. This is still a seven-point improvement on the support the party received in the last round of local elections in 2022, and its performance in the local election held shortly before the general election in 2024. The party has gained a net of 25 seats so far. The party has achieved a number second and third places but very few firsts. The drop was especially sharp in areas where the party had previously been strongest and in wards with a high Muslim population. This pattern has magnified the party’s losses of seats, which now stand at 250 or half of those it was trying to defend. The party has lost eight councils. Meanwhile, support for Conservatives has dropped on average by 11 percentage points since 2022. And 9 points since the year 2024. (By this time the party had already lost a lot of its popularity). Support dropped especially where Reform support was strongest, underlining its threat to Kemi’s party. It has lost 137 seats so far, a number that is magnified because it is in places that it was strongest. PAHowever their success was a result of a sharp 17 point fall in Labour support, rather than an indication that the party had made any progress. Its own tally also fell by five points in what is one of the only places where it is still primarily Conservative vs Labour. The Liberal Democrats expected making significant gains. The Liberal Democrats expected to make significant gains, but so far this has not happened. The party won control of Stockport and Portsmouth but lost Hull. The average support for the Party is down three points from both 2022 and 204. It has gained seats in part because it has been able, in places where it was second in the polls, to benefit from the sharp decline in Conservative or Labour support. The party is not showing the same kind of progress as Reform or the Greens. Many key battles are still undecided. What early election results tell us in maps and charts? When is the next UK General Election? What early election results show us in maps and charts? When is the next UK general election?
