The level of doom has not changed much since I wrote about it last month. It’s not much different from what I wrote last month. If you haven’t been living on another world, you will have heard or seen a lot of serious talk about whether or no Labour MPs would move against the Prime Minister. Keir is on international stage, ensuring that Trump does not wipe out the hard-fought improvements the government has made in the cost of living crisis,” my sources told me. He won’t spend months talking to members when the country needs his leadership. “The message to his MPs is clear – try as you may, but I will fight you to stay. Starmer’s camp is openly rejecting any notion he could, like Theresa May, put a date on his tenure at No 10. They warned Angela Rayner, saying: “Everyone is aware that a leader who announces a public departure date lacks power. It would be surprising if Angela Rayner, a politician of such accomplishments, didn’t understand this. Any deal would cause more chaos in the nation and plunge the party into endless debate. “In seven days, will we be in a coup against Starmer?” The UK-wide polls have consistently shown WireReform leading for more than a month. They haven’t seen a surge in popularity since 2025, but they are still in the top 10. Given their position as the number one party, they should do well. Some projections have them winning at least 1,500 of the 5,000 seats that are up for grabs. Reform is likely to win more seats in England than they did last year. The party is also focusing on Scotland and Wales, where they hope to be in the top two positions in the national elections. Nigel Farage has been around for a while, but if his party is in that position by next week’s elections, it will be a major political moment. This election does not seem to be the one where voters will bring about that change. PA WireFor the Greens it is the first test on a national level of whether Zack Polanski’s exuberance, and ability to grab headlines, will translate into actual power. He can be confident that they’ll gain seats. Even the most expert political pundits can’t predict how many seats the Greens will win. However, given their recent surge in the polls and their strong showing, at least 500 seats would be a good guess. The Greens want to expand their presence in London, but not only by gaining more seats, but also by taking control of councils. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, seem to prefer local campaigns more than any other party. This is not only because Sir Ed Davey enjoys being on the campaign trail, but also because their strategy has always been based on carefully targeting areas where they think they can succeed rather than focusing on UK-wide momentum. One party source described it as “tortoise-and-hare – perhaps one day Ed will dress up as a turtle”.The Lib Dems hope to make a good showing in council seats – to add about 150, according to some predictions. It’s not only the total that matters, but also whether they can build deeper defences within the councils they currently control and if they can win new ones. It would be a great thing to brag about, but it would also show how strange politics has become. The party that is often not even third in UK polls would have more local representatives. The Tories came second in the last round of English council elections in 2022, and also in Wales and Scotland. The last time these contests took place was before the chaos of Boris Johnson leaving and the calamity that was Liz Truss. Tory HQ has prepared for another beating, just like they did last year, when, according to a member of the shadow Cabinet, “we were a total mess”. But while the party expects to lose hundreds, you can’t tell if it will be the end of Kemi Badenoch as leader. Westminster is still in a bad position in national polls but they are more optimistic than last year. One senior source said, “We didn’t even know if Kemi would last at this time last year. Now we do.” “Then, there’s Labour and the Prime Minister. I’ve spoken to MPs, councillors, and ministers who are frustrated by the speculation. They also have a lot of irritation towards the potential candidates in a leadership contest. There is no denying that a poor set of results for Labour will put the prime minister’s uncertain future in further doubt. The party is “dark” and “desperate” in Wales, according to one source. While internal Labour data suggests that the picture in Scotland is not as bleak, it would still take a miracle to get them close to the SNP. Labour is trying hard to hold onto about 2,500 council seat in England. They may lose more than half of them, with party insiders suggesting they could lose up to three-quarters.ReutersThere is (cough) a range of opinion on whether Sir Keir Starmer should be pushed out afterwards. One minister says, “It’s terminal,” while another says, “I can’t see any way out.” Another minister says the next minute: “I am firmly of view that we must not doomscroll through leaders – we must wean ourselves off of it.” “But the eagerness to make a change will be shaped – as a government source says: “A great deal depends on the results. If Greens are up 500 and Reform is up 2,500, then holy sh*t. “Around the nation, the party has already been hacked off by the chatter about whether Starmer will survive. As one senior councillor told me: “Everytime you check your phone, there is another comment from Andy [Burnham]” or “some more speculation about Angela Rayner”. It’s demotivating. There is a lot of frustration among activists and the voters who see this and think it’s all a mess. Burnham and Rayner could “move together”, with the possibility that Rayner would be positioned as the person who will take over from Starmer right now, while Burnham in time could be the one to fight the next election. I was told that there are two distinct decisions to be made – who will deliver the 2024 Manifesto and who can win the next general election. They might not be the exact same person. Rayner and Burnham “talk every day”, according to my source. However, a Team Rayner member told me this suggestion was “nonsense”. Rayner and Burnham’s ambitions, however, are not a secret. Another senior Labour figure said, “How many times can you hit the reset button before they realise it’s nothing? “PA WireDon’t forget the other parties that are trying to take and hold power in Holyrood, and Cardiff. The SNP leader said he was confident that he would get a majority, and his party will enter a third decade of power. This bravado might not match the results, but it is expected that they will remain the largest party. Kemi Badenoch will be joining us on this weekend’s show, along with Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski for the government. The SNP, Plaid, and Lib Dems are also on the panel. Seven parties for the world of 2026. Send us your questions and points at kuenssberg@bbc.co.uk. Because the magic of elections means that it is not our fate that politicians hold, but theirs. Emma Barnett and John Simpson present their selection of thought-provoking deep readings and analysis every Saturday. Sign up here for the newsletterEngland local election 2026Conservative PartyReform UKGreen Party in England and WalesUK elections 2026Labour PartyLiberal Democratic
