Politics

Winners, losers and a PM on the brink – what to expect in next week’s elections

The level of doom has not changed much since I wrote about it last month. It’s not much different from what I wrote last month. If you haven’t been living on another world, you will have heard or seen a lot of serious talk about whether or no Labour MPs would move against the Prime Minister. Keir is on international stage, ensuring that Trump does not wipe out the hard-fought improvements the government has made in the cost of living crisis,” my sources told me. He won’t spend months talking to members when the country needs his leadership. “The message to his MPs is clear – try as you may, but I will fight you to stay. Starmer’s camp is openly rejecting any notion he could, like Theresa May, put a date on his tenure at No 10. They warned Angela Rayner, saying: “Everyone is aware that a leader who announces a public departure date lacks power. It would be surprising if Angela Rayner, a politician of such accomplishments, didn’t understand this. Any deal would cause more chaos in the nation and plunge the party into endless debate. “In seven days, will we be in a coup against Starmer?” The UK-wide polls have consistently shown WireReform leading for more than a month. They haven’t seen a surge in popularity since 2025, but they are still in the top 10. Given their position as the number one party, they should do well. Some projections have them winning at least 1,500 of the 5,000 seats that are up for grabs. Reform is likely to win more seats in England than they did last year. The party is also focusing on Scotland and Wales, where they hope to be in the top two positions in the national elections. Nigel Farage has been around for a while, but if his party is in that position by next week’s elections, it will be a major political moment. This election does not seem to be the one where voters will bring about that change. PA WireFor the Greens it is the first test on a national level of whether Zack Polanski’s exuberance, and ability to grab headlines, will translate into actual power. He can be confident that they’ll gain seats. Even the most expert political pundits can’t predict how many seats the Greens will win. However, given their recent surge in the polls and their strong showing, at least 500 seats would be a good guess. The Greens want to expand their presence in London, but not only by gaining more seats, but also by taking control of councils. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, seem to prefer local campaigns more than any other party. This is not only because Sir Ed Davey enjoys being on the campaign trail, but also because their strategy has always been based on carefully targeting areas where they think they can succeed rather than focusing on UK-wide momentum. One party source described it as “tortoise-and-hare – perhaps one day Ed will dress up as a turtle”.The Lib Dems hope to make a good showing in council seats – to add about 150, according to some predictions. It’s not only the total that matters, but also whether they can build deeper defences within the councils they currently control and if they can win new ones. It would be a great thing to brag about, but it would also show how strange politics has become. The party that is often not even third in UK polls would have more local representatives. The Tories came second in the last round of English council elections in 2022, and also in Wales and Scotland. The last time these contests took place was before the chaos of Boris Johnson leaving and the calamity that was Liz Truss. Tory HQ has prepared for another beating, just like they did last year, when, according to a member of the shadow Cabinet, “we were a total mess”. But while the party expects to lose hundreds, you can’t tell if it will be the end of Kemi Badenoch as leader. Westminster is still in a bad position in national polls but they are more optimistic than last year. One senior source said, “We didn’t even know if Kemi would last at this time last year. Now we do.” “Then, there’s Labour and the Prime Minister. I’ve spoken to MPs, councillors, and ministers who are frustrated by the speculation. They also have a lot of irritation towards the potential candidates in a leadership contest. There is no denying that a poor set of results for Labour will put the prime minister’s uncertain future in further doubt. The party is “dark” and “desperate” in Wales, according to one source. While internal Labour data suggests that the picture in Scotland is not as bleak, it would still take a miracle to get them close to the SNP. Labour is trying hard to hold onto about 2,500 council seat in England. They may lose more than half of them, with party insiders suggesting they could lose up to three-quarters.ReutersThere is (cough) a range of opinion on whether Sir Keir Starmer should be pushed out afterwards. One minister says, “It’s terminal,” while another says, “I can’t see any way out.” Another minister says the next minute: “I am firmly of view that we must not doomscroll through leaders – we must wean ourselves off of it.” “But the eagerness to make a change will be shaped – as a government source says: “A great deal depends on the results. If Greens are up 500 and Reform is up 2,500, then holy sh*t. “Around the nation, the party has already been hacked off by the chatter about whether Starmer will survive. As one senior councillor told me: “Everytime you check your phone, there is another comment from Andy [Burnham]” or “some more speculation about Angela Rayner”. It’s demotivating. There is a lot of frustration among activists and the voters who see this and think it’s all a mess. Burnham and Rayner could “move together”, with the possibility that Rayner would be positioned as the person who will take over from Starmer right now, while Burnham in time could be the one to fight the next election. I was told that there are two distinct decisions to be made – who will deliver the 2024 Manifesto and who can win the next general election. They might not be the exact same person. Rayner and Burnham “talk every day”, according to my source. However, a Team Rayner member told me this suggestion was “nonsense”. Rayner and Burnham’s ambitions, however, are not a secret. Another senior Labour figure said, “How many times can you hit the reset button before they realise it’s nothing? “PA WireDon’t forget the other parties that are trying to take and hold power in Holyrood, and Cardiff. The SNP leader said he was confident that he would get a majority, and his party will enter a third decade of power. This bravado might not match the results, but it is expected that they will remain the largest party. Kemi Badenoch will be joining us on this weekend’s show, along with Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski for the government. The SNP, Plaid, and Lib Dems are also on the panel. Seven parties for the world of 2026. Send us your questions and points at kuenssberg@bbc.co.uk. Because the magic of elections means that it is not our fate that politicians hold, but theirs. Emma Barnett and John Simpson present their selection of thought-provoking deep readings and analysis every Saturday. Sign up here for the newsletterEngland local election 2026Conservative PartyReform UKGreen Party in England and WalesUK elections 2026Labour PartyLiberal Democratic

Politics

The key measures in the King’s Speech

The key measures in the King’s Speech8 minutes agoPaul SeddonPolitical reporterReutersKing Charles has outlined the government’s law-making plans for the coming year in a speech to the House of Lords.The speech gave an outline of 37 bills minsters want to pass in the next parliamentary session, including eight previously introduced to Parliament.But the event was overshadowed by the continued leadership speculation that continues to surround Sir Keir Starmer.Here is a summary of the main points.Economy and businessThe Steel Industry (Nationalisation) Bill will give ministers new powers to fully nationalise British Steel, subject to a public interest testA European Partnership Bill contains controversial new powers to fast-track legislation to deliver a series of new agreements planned with the EUA Regulating for Growth Bill will allow for pilot schemes to boost innovation in areas like defence technology and AI-controlled shipsA Competition Reform Bill will aim to speed up reviews by the competition regulator, and the Enhancing Financial Services Bill will aim to reduce compliance burdens on the financial services sector A Small Business Protections (Late Payments) Bill will increase penalty interest for companies that fail to pay suppliers on timeStarmer prepares for King’s Speech as he faces leadership crisisWhat is the King’s Speech and what happens during the State Opening of Parliament?HousingPA MediaA Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill will ban the use of leasehold for new flats England and Wales, and cap ground rents at PS250 per yearA Social Housing Renewal Bill would exempt newly built social homes in England from Right to Buy for 35 years, and introduce new protections for social tenants who are victims of domestic abuse to stay in their propertyPowers to make construction product manufacturers pay towards removing unsafe building cladding are promised in a new Remediation BillTransportA Railways and Passenger Benefits Bill will create a new watchdog to enforce passenger rights and consolidate the 14 existing operator websitesA draft Taxi and Private Hire Vehicle Bill will introduce a national database of all licensed taxis and hire vehicles, in a bid to improve passenger safetyThe financing model used to fund nuclear projects will be extended to new road projects in England through the Highways (Financing) BillThe Northern Powerhouse Rail Bill, a renamed version of an old HS2 bill, will detail a new proposed rail route from Manchester to Millington, via Manchester AirportA Civil Aviation Bill will create new powers over take-off and landing slots at airports, in a bid to support airport expansionCrime and policingGetty ImagesA wide-ranging Police Reform Bill will deliver plans to create new, larger forces in England and Wales, and create a new national force to investigate the “most serious crime”Controversial plans to scale back the use of jury trials in England and Wales are contained in a Courts Modernisation BillImmigrationThe Immigration and Asylum Bill will make it easier to revoke refugee status and restrict taxpayer support to asylum seekersHealthAn NHS Modernisation Bill will abolish the arm’s length body that runs NHS England, pave the way for patient records to be viewed on the NHS App, and require “mayoral nominees” to sit on local health boardsA draft Conversion Practices Bill, announced in Labour’s first King’s speech, would deliver a promised ban on measures intending to change someone’s sexual orientation or gender identityEnergy and the environmentPA MediaAn Energy Independence Bill will introduce new energy efficiency requirements for rented homes, and give ministers new powers to target energy bill support at “low-income and vulnerable households”The tax charged on the “excess profits” made by electricity generation companies will be increased under a Electricity Generator Levy BillMinisters say the process for approving new nuclear energy projects will be streamlined in a Nuclear Regulation BillThe Clean Water Bill will merge the functions of several existing regulators, including Ofwat, in a bid to end the “fragmented oversight” over the privatised water sectorSecurityA Tackling State Threats Bill contains new powers to ban state-linked groups such as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)The Armed Forces Bill, introduced earlier this year, contains new powers making it easier to mobilise former armed forces personnel to prepare for warIn the wake of the 2024 Southport attack, a new National Security Bill will criminalise sharing material that “glorifies, trivialises, or normalises” serious violenceThe government’s much-amended Northern Ireland Troubles Bill, to create a new commission to investigate Troubles-related killings, also featuredDigital and technologyPowers to deliver a new voluntary digital ID scheme to access public services are contained in a Digital Access to Services BillA Cyber Security and Resilience Bill will bring data centres into scope of the UK’s cyber security reporting regimeGovernancePlans to restrict foreign political donations and lower the voting age to 16 are contained in a Representation of the People Bill announced earlier this yearThe Public Office (Accountability) Bill, known as the Hillsborough Law, is an existing bill to create a new duty of candour for public officialsNew powers to removing peerages from members of the House of Lords are contained in a new Removal of Peerages BillA Sovereign Grant Bill will enable government funding for the monarch’s official duties to be reduced after a renovation of Buckingham Palace ends next yearOther measuresEPA/ShutterstockPlans to overhaul the provision of special needs provision in England’s schools are contained in a new Education for All BillA draft Ticket Tout Ban Bill will cap service fees charged by resale platforms and make it illegal to resell tickets for live events at more than face valueThe Sporting Events Bill contains a raft of powers to support the delivery of the Euro 2028 men’s football tournamentAn Overnight Visitor Levy Bill will give local mayors in England powers to levy “tourist taxes” on overnight stays, bringing them into line with local leaders in Wales and Scotland What was not in the speech?Legislation to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius has been shelved after opposition from US President Donald TrumpA bill to reform welfare did not feature, although the King said ministers would “respond” to a review of the system led by Social Security Minister Stephen Timms due in the autumnA private member’s bill to legalise assisted dying in England and Wales ran out of time in the previous session amid opposition in the Lords – the government has not given time for a new bill, although supporters may hope to bring one back.Sign up for our Politics Essential newsletter to keep up with the inner workings of Westminster and beyond.Keir StarmerUK ParliamentLabour Party

Politics

Chris Mason: Why a coffee is overshadowing the King’s Speech

Chris Mason: Why the King’s speech is being overshadowed by a coffee59 minutes agoChris MasonPolitical EditorIt is amazing that two men having a cup coffee can generate more headlines than the King visiting parliament for the main ceremonial occasion of the parliamentary year. Both of these things are happening today. The King was in Westminster to read out the government’s new laws. This was planned for this week because the government anticipated a rough election result and political turmoil. They got that part right. They hoped it would help Prime Minister to relaunch and reboot his Premiership again. There’s no shortage of plotting.Follow Live: Keir’s Starmer latestStarmer’s King’s Speech preparations as he faces a leadership crisisThe potential challenges to Keir’s StarmerWes streeting: Ambitious Minister at the centre of leadership speculationWhat’s the King’s Speech?And what happens during State Opening of Parliament?” So where are we now? We’re in a bit of a holding position. The authority of the prime minister has been repeatedly slammed, but no one has yet to come forward with 81 MPs required for a challenge to his leadership. And the Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham still hasn’t found a seat in parliament. “Wes does not have the numbers, and Andy doesn’t have a place, for all the noise,” a supporter of the Prime Minister told me. “Wes has botched it and caused massive damage and instabilities in the process. Some believe that after the State Opening, Wes Streeting may go for it. Some of his supporters certainly hope so, after publicly declaring that the prime minister was finished. Meanwhile, the Trade Union and Labour Party Liaison Organisation has released a statement today saying “it is clear that the prime minister will no longer lead Labour to the next election.” There are also disagreements among unions as to what to do next.

Politics

UK borrowing costs jump amid uncertainty over PM’s future

UK borrowing costs rise amid uncertainty about PM’s futureJust NowMichael RaceBusiness reporterGetty ImagesGovernment lending costs rose on Tuesday amid uncertainty surrounding the future of Prime Minster Sir Keir. More than 75 Labour MPs called for Sir Keir’s resignation following poor election results, but the PM told his cabinet to get on with “governing”. The Labour Party has a procedure for challenging a leader, but that process has not been triggered,” said Starmer to his senior colleagues. Some then voiced their support for him to remain in office. Starmer’s allies express support as they leave the cabinet meeting after the PM says he’ll ‘get on governing’. Oil price is predicted to stay above $100 for the rest of the year. Investors will be watching for any signs of fiscal easing, given the fragile fiscal situation in the UK. “The likely replacements of Starmer/Reeves probably would not be as fiscally minded. “They suggested all frontrunners to potentially challenge Sir Keir – Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting – would “probably raise public spending”.Governments get most of their income from taxes, but often want to spend more money than taxes raise. The bond yield or interest rate for two, five, ten and thirty-year terms was higher on Tuesday as the future of the prime minister was in danger. The yield on 30-year bond hit 5.80% – the highest since 1998. The 10-year gilt is the standard for government bonds. Two and five-year bonds have an impact on fixed-rate mortgages of the same time period. The rise in oil prices has added inflationary pressure to the bond market, which is already tense due to concerns that a new UK prime minister may have a different view of borrowing, relax fiscal rules, or extend them. Anna Macdonald is investment strategy director at Hargreaves Lansdown. This would mean that investors, 25-30% of whom are overseas buyers of UK Government bonds, would demand a higher premium for risk. The amount of interest paid by the government on its existing public debt is tied to inflation and interest rates. The amount has been increasing in recent years, and now accounts for around PS1 per PS10 that the government spends.Keir StarmerInflationUK Economy

Politics

At a glance: Starmer grapples with leadership crisis

Star

Politics

British Steel nationalisation plans announced by Starmer

British Steel set to be nationalised, Starmer saysJust nowMichael RaceBusiness reporterReutersBritish Steel is set to be brought into public ownership, the prime minister has announced.Sir Keir Starmer said legislation would be brought forward this week to give the government powers to take “full ownership of British Steel”, subject to a public interest test.The move comes after the government seized control of British Steel’s Scunthorpe steelworks from its Chinese owners Jingye in April last year in order to halt the potential closure of its blast furnances.Sir Keir said the government had held talks with Jinqye, but that a “commersicial sale has not been possible, and now a public test could be met”.