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Ukraine war: How Putin’s fate is tied with Russia’s war

Steve Rosenberg looks at why Vladimir Putin set sail in a storm of his own making a year ago.

Steve RosenbergRussia Editor MoscowI keep coming back to something I heard three years ago on Russian state television. The anchor described President Putin as a captain who steers the ship Russia through turbulent waters of global unrest. He continued, “Russia is an oasis for stability, a safe harbor.” “What would we have done without Putin?” “So much for a safe harbor and an oasis of stability. The Kremlin captain set sail on 24 February 2022 in a storm of his making. He headed straight for the Iceberg. Russia’s neighbor has suffered the consequences of Vladimir Putin’s invasion in Ukraine. It has caused massive military casualties for Russia’s neighbor. Some estimates place the number of Russian soldiers who have died in the tens or thousands. Russian citizens have been drafted into army, and Russian prisoners (including those convicted of murder) have been recruited to fight for Ukraine. The war has had a negative impact on energy and food prices all over the world and continues today to pose a threat to European and global security. All of these problems are titanic in scale. So why did Russia’s president decide to go for war and conquest of territory? Image source: EPA. “On the horizon were Russian presidential elections in 2024,” says Ekaterina Schulmann, a political scientist. “Two years ago, the Kremlin wanted to see a victorious event. They would achieve their goals in 2022. They would make the Russians realize how lucky they were to have such an experienced captain leading the ship through difficult waters and bringing them to better and more prosperous shores. In 2024, people would be able to vote. Bingo. What could go wrong? There are many possibilities, especially if you base your plans on incorrect assumptions and miscalculations. The Kremlin expected that its “special military operation” would be lightning fast. It believed that Ukraine would be back in Russia’s orbit within weeks. It was clear that President Putin underestimated Ukraine’s ability to resist and fight back as well as the determination to support Kyiv by Western nations. Russia’s leader has not yet admitted that he made a mistake in invading Ukraine. Putin’s strategy is to keep pushing on, to escalate and to raise the stakes. This week, he offered some clues. His address to the nation was full of anti-Western bile. He continues to blame America, NATO, and to paint Russia as an innocent party for the war in Ukraine.

Putin’s decision to withdraw from the last nuclear arms control treaty between Russia, America, New Start, shows that he has no intention of withdrawing from Ukraine or ending his standoff. In a highly choreographed proKremlin rally, Putin addressed the crowd and said that “there are battles happening right now on [Russian’s] historical frontiers” as well as praising Russia’s “courageous soldiers”. Conclusion: Don’t expect any Kremlin Uturns. This Russian president is not for turning. Image source: Reuters. Andrei Illarionov was President Putin’s former economic advisor. He can only be stopped by military resistance. But what about talks with tanks? Is it possible to negotiate peace with Putin? Andrei Illarionov says, “It’s possible for anyone to sit down with you,” but he adds that “but we have a history of sitting down with Putin in order to make agreements with him.” “Putin broke all the documents. The agreement on the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a bilateral treaty between Russia, Ukraine, the treaty on Russia’s internationally recognized border, the UN charter and the Helsinki Act of 1975, as well as the Budapest Memorandum. So on. He would never violate any document. “Russian authorities have a long list to hold against the West when it comes to breaking agreements. Moscow claims that the West broke a promise that it made in 1990s not to expand the NATO alliance eastwards. Yet, Vladimir Putin did not view NATO as a threat in his first years of office. In 2000, he did not rule out Russia becoming a member of NATO. Two years later, Putin was asked about Ukraine’s stated intention to join NATO.

He replied that Ukraine is a sovereign country and has the right to decide how to protect its security …”. Image source: Getty ImagesPutin circa twenty-three is a completely different character. He is resentful at the “collective West” and describes himself as the leader of a fortress that repels the alleged attempts by Russia’s enemies of his country. His speeches and comments, as well as his references to imperial Russian rulers such as Peter the Great and Catherine The Great, suggest that Putin believes he is destined for the restoration of the Russian empire in any form. But at what cost to Russia. Putin was once known for his ability to bring stability to Russia. This reputation has been lost amid increasing military casualties, mobilisation, and economic sanctions. Since the start of war, several hundred thousand Russians have fled the country, many of whom are young, skilled, and educated. This is a brain drain that will further hurt Russia’s economy. The war has created a large number of gun-wielding groups, including private military companies like Yevgeny Prgozhin’s Wagner Group and regional battalions. Relations with the regular army are not harmonious. Public infighting within elites is evident in the conflict between Russia’s Ministry of Defence (Russia) and Wagner. Instability combined with private armies is a dangerous combination. Konstantin Remchukov (owner and editor of the Moscow-based newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta) believes that civil war will likely cover Russia over the next ten years. “There are too few interest groups that understand that these conditions offer the possibility of redistributing wealth. “”The only way to avoid civil war is if the right person steps in after Putin. A person with the ability to control the elites and the determination to seize those who would profit from the situation. “Are the Russian elites discussing the right man or woman?” “Quietly,” Konstantin. The lights are off. They discuss it. They will be able to speak out. “”And does Putin even know that these discussions are taking place? “”He knows. He knows everything, I believe. “This week, the speaker of Russia’s lower house declared that “as long as Putin is around, Russia will be there.” It was a declaration of loyalty, but not fact. Russia will survive, as it has done for centuries. However, Vladimir Putin’s fate is now tied irrevocably to the outcome in Ukraine. Related TopicsRussia-Ukraine warRussiaMoscowVladimir PutinRussia economyUkraine

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Ukraine war: Kyiv secures a bridgehead across the key Dnipro River, reports

But military experts warn that advancing from positions across the Dnipro could be very difficult.

Ukrainian troops have set up positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River in southern Kherson region, reports say.The region is partially Russian-held and crossing the river could be significant in future offensives.The US-based Institute for the Study of War says Russian military bloggers have posted “enough geolocated footage and text reports to confirm” the advance.BBC Ukraine says its military sources have reported a “certain movement across [the] Dnipro” near Kherson city.

Ukraine’s military has not confirmed the movement, while Russia has denied the reports.But if the reports that Ukraine has secured a bridgehead on the east bank are correct, it could be significant in helping Kyiv drive Russian troops back.A Ukrainian advance in the area could, in the future, even cut the land corridor to Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014.However, military experts say any Ukrainian troop movements in the bridgehead area – which is crisscrossed by floodplains, irrigation canals and other water obstacles – would be a tough task.And Ukrainian advances would be further complicated by Russia’s significant advantage in the air.

Ukraine’s military has for some time publicly spoken about preparations for a major counter-offensive, without specifying where and when it could be launched.Until now, all of the Kherson region on the east bank of the Dnipro has been under Russian control, with the wide river serving as a natural barrier.The regional capital – sitting on the west bank – was liberated by Ukrainian forces last November.Celebrations as Ukraine takes back key city KhersonPutin visits occupied Kherson region in UkraineIn Sunday’s report, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said “geolocated footage published on 23 April indicates that Ukrainian forces are operating in areas north-west of Oleshky on the east” bank of Dnipro.

The ISW added there was not enough information to analyse the scale of the reported Ukrainian advance – or the further intentions of the Ukrainian military.On Monday, Russia’s WarGonzo military blogger reported that Ukrainian troops were “trying to gain a foothold on Bolshoi Potemkin [Velykyi Potyomkin – Ukrainian] island”, which is located between the new and old channels of the Dnipro.

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India’s population will surpass China this week, according to UN

Last week, a different UN body said the milestone would be passed later in 2023.

India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous nation by the end this week. A different UN body predicted last week that India would surpass China by the middle this year. The Asian nations have accounted more than a quarter of the global population since over 70 years. The UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in a press release that “China will soon relinquish its long-held position as the world’s largest country”.

The UN Population Fund said last week that India would have 2.9 million more people than China by the middle of 2023. China’s birthrate has dropped recently, and its population shrank last year for first time since 1961. India’s population will continue to grow for several decades, it said. However, fertility rates in India are also dropping – from 5.7 babies per woman in 1950, to 2.2 today. In November, the world population reached 8 billion. Experts say that the growth rate is slower than it used to be, and is now at its lowest level since 1950.

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Scientists are concerned about recent rapid ocean warming.

There’s growing concern that the oceans are heating up quickly – and scientists are unsure of the implications.

It has never warmed up this much, so quickly. Scientists don’t fully understand why. But they worry that, combined with other weather events, the world’s temperature could reach a worrying new level by the end of next year. Scientists do not fully understand why it has happened. But they are concerned that combined with other weather conditions, the temperature of the planet could reach a new alarming level by the end next year. They are less efficient in absorbing planet-warming gases.

In the last 15 years, Earth’s heat has increased by 50 percent, with the majority of that extra heat going into the oceans. This has real world implications – not only was the temperature of the oceans a record in April, but in some areas the difference over the long term is enormous. Image source: Getty ImagesIn march, sea surface temperatures along the east coast of North America reached 13.8C above the 1981-2011 average. Karina Von Schuckmann, lead author of the study and oceanographer with the research group Mercator Ocean International, said: “It is not yet clear why such a rapid and huge change is occurring.”

“We have doubled heat in the climate system over the last 15 years. I don’t think this is climate variability, but it could be. We do see the change. “An interesting factor that could influence the level of heat entering the oceans is a reduction in shipping pollution. In 2020, the International Maritime Organisation implemented a regulation to lower the sulphur in fuel burned by ships. This has had an immediate impact on reducing the amount aerosol particles released in the atmosphere. Aerosols that pollute the air also reflect heat back into the space, so removing them could have caused more heat to reach the oceans.

The average surface temperature of the oceans has risen by 0.9C since pre-industrial times, with 0.6C of that increase occurring in the last 40. This is less than the rise in air temperatures on land which have increased by 1.5C. Oceans absorb heat much deeper than land and require more energy to heat. This has real-world implications. It is especially damaging to coral reefs. Extreme weather will increase as heat from the upper ocean surface increases hurricanes and cyclones. This means they become more intense and longer-lasting.Sea-level rise: warmer waters take up more space – known as thermal expansion – and can greatly accelerate the melting of glaciers from Greenland and Antarctica that flow into the oceans.

This increases global sea levels and increases the risk of coastal flooding. Warmer water has a lower ability to absorb CO2. The oceans will absorb less CO2 if they continue to warm. This will lead to more CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere, further warming the air. “The Australian Bureau model strongly suggests a strong El Nino.” Hugh McDowell, from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said that the trend has been in that direction and that all climate models have been trending towards a stronger event. Mr McDowell warned that predictions are less reliable at this time of the year.

Other researchers are more optimistic. Experts believe that a fully-formed event will follow. “If we have a new El Nino on top of that, it will probably cause an additional global warming of 0.2-0.25C,” Dr Josef Ludescher from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research said. “The impact of El Nino is reduced a few months following the peak. This is why 2024 is likely to be the warmest year on record. “Image source, Anadolu Agency.” And we may, we’ll be close to 1.5C and perhaps we’ll temporarily go over. El Nino is likely to disrupt weather patterns in Australia and around the world. It will also weaken the monsoon. There are also more fundamental concerns that as heat is absorbed by the oceans, they may be less able store excess energy.

One scientist described being “extremely stressed and worried”. Karina von Schuckmann says that some research has shown the world warming in jumps. Little changes over years are followed by sudden leaps upwards. After El Nino subsides, temperatures may drop again. She told BBC News that “we still have a window of opportunity to act and we should take advantage of this to reduce the effects.” Graphics by Erwan RIVALL.

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Wagner in Sudan: what have Russian mercenaries done?

The Wagner group denies involvement in the current conflict, but there’s evidence it has previously been active in Sudan.

Russian Wagner mercenary forces are accused of having commercial and military ties with Sudan. However, the group denies involvement in the current conflict. Yevgeny Praighozin, who has close ties to President Vladimir Putin, has stated that “not one Wagner PMC [private company] fighter has ever been present in Sudan”. We have found no evidence of Russian mercenaries currently inside the country. There is evidence of Wagner’s previous activities in Sudan. Mr Prighozin’s operations in the nation have been targeted by US and EU sanctions. Gold-mining DealsIn 2017, Sudan’s former President Omar al-Bashir, during a trip to Moscow, signed a number of deals.

These included an agreement to establish a Russian naval base at Port Sudan along the Red Sea as well as “concessions on gold mining” between Russian company M Invest, and the Sudanese Ministry of Minerals. The According to a CNN investigation, gold was transported overland into Central African Republic where Wagner operates – exports that were not recorded in Sudanese trade data.

The BBC has not independently confirmed these images. In 2021, a Wagner linked Telegram channel published photos of an unnamed top Wagner leader awarding Sudanese soldier memorabilia during a ceremony that took place two years earlier. TelegramAnd, in July 2022 this channel distributed a clip allegedly showing Wagner’s mercenaries performing par The same source linked the Instagram profile of a Russian mercenary who called himself a “freelancer”. He shared stories of his exploits on Sudan in posts dating from August and Oct 2021. How influential is Wagner? The US Treasury claims that the Wagner Group has been involved in “paramilitary activities, support for maintaining authoritarian regimes and exploitation natural resources”. The relationship between the Royal United Services Institute and the UK-based Royal United Services Institute has grown since then.

“In 2018, they had around 100 men actively training Sudanese forces,” says Dr Joana De Deus Pereira from the UK. Sudanese media reported that the number grew to 500 and that they were mainly based in the south-west, near Um Dafuq and close to Sudan’s borders with the Central African Republic. According to Dr Samuel Ramani who wrote a book on Russia’s activities throughout Africa, the Wagner Group created its own media campaigns in order to keep President Bashir in power. Image source: AFP. This caused friction with the president’s security forces and Wagner switched its support to General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who overthrew him.

Dr Ramani says that while the Foreign Ministry in Moscow opposed the coup, Prigozhin, and the Wagner Group, welcomed al-Burhan’s takeover. According to Dr Ramani it was between 2021 and 2022 when the Wagner Group increased their connections with the Rapid Support Forces, which is currently fighting Sudan’s regular army led by Gen Burhan. Mr Pri “Wagner had links with both General al-Burhan and Mr Hemedti in different degrees and ways,” she says. Wagner’s presence in AfricaWagner fighters are widely reported to be in the Central African Republic for several years, guarding diamond mines in the country, as well in Libya and Mali.

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Sudan fighting: Foreign nationals and diplomats evacuated

Several countries are helping their citizens leave the capital, Khartoum, following a week of fighting.

Several other countries have also started organising evacuations, starting on Sunday. France, Germany Italy and Spain have also started organising evacuations. A vicious power struggle has caused violence throughout the country. The UK government was able to airlift British diplomatic staff and their families out in a “complex” and “rapid” operation. Foreign Minister James Cleverly stated that options to evacuate remaining British nationals were “severely restricted”.

The German army reported that the first of three flights had left Sudan bound for Jordan with 101 people aboard. Italy and Spain evacuated citizens – the Spanish mission included citizens of Argentina, Colombia, Ireland Portugal, Poland Mexico, Venezuela, and Sudan. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his government had evacuated diplomatic staff. More than 150 people were evacuated to the Saudi Arabian port Jeddah by sea, including citizens from Egypt, Pakistan, and Gulf countries. Many foreign students from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East have also been trapped in Khartoum. They have made desperate calls for assistance.

The US announced on Sunday that a disaster response team will be sent to the region to “coordinate humanitarian response to those in need, both within and outside Sudan.” “Samantha Power, from the US Agency for International Development(USAID), said that the team would initially work out of Kenya and give priority to getting “life-saving humanitarian assistance to those in need.” The World Health Organization reports that the fighting has injured thousands and killed more than 400.

The death toll may be higher than 400, because people are unable to access healthcare due to the closure of most hospitals in the city. The fighting has also affected the western region of Darfur where the RSF was first formed. The UN has warned that 20,000 people, mostly women and children, have fled Sudan in search of safety in Chad across the border.