It has never warmed up this much, so quickly. Scientists don’t fully understand why. But they worry that, combined with other weather events, the world’s temperature could reach a worrying new level by the end of next year. Scientists do not fully understand why it has happened. But they are concerned that combined with other weather conditions, the temperature of the planet could reach a new alarming level by the end next year. They are less efficient in absorbing planet-warming gases.
In the last 15 years, Earth’s heat has increased by 50 percent, with the majority of that extra heat going into the oceans. This has real world implications – not only was the temperature of the oceans a record in April, but in some areas the difference over the long term is enormous. Image source: Getty ImagesIn march, sea surface temperatures along the east coast of North America reached 13.8C above the 1981-2011 average. Karina Von Schuckmann, lead author of the study and oceanographer with the research group Mercator Ocean International, said: “It is not yet clear why such a rapid and huge change is occurring.”
“We have doubled heat in the climate system over the last 15 years. I don’t think this is climate variability, but it could be. We do see the change. “An interesting factor that could influence the level of heat entering the oceans is a reduction in shipping pollution. In 2020, the International Maritime Organisation implemented a regulation to lower the sulphur in fuel burned by ships. This has had an immediate impact on reducing the amount aerosol particles released in the atmosphere. Aerosols that pollute the air also reflect heat back into the space, so removing them could have caused more heat to reach the oceans.
The average surface temperature of the oceans has risen by 0.9C since pre-industrial times, with 0.6C of that increase occurring in the last 40. This is less than the rise in air temperatures on land which have increased by 1.5C. Oceans absorb heat much deeper than land and require more energy to heat. This has real-world implications. It is especially damaging to coral reefs. Extreme weather will increase as heat from the upper ocean surface increases hurricanes and cyclones. This means they become more intense and longer-lasting.Sea-level rise: warmer waters take up more space – known as thermal expansion – and can greatly accelerate the melting of glaciers from Greenland and Antarctica that flow into the oceans.
This increases global sea levels and increases the risk of coastal flooding. Warmer water has a lower ability to absorb CO2. The oceans will absorb less CO2 if they continue to warm. This will lead to more CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere, further warming the air. “The Australian Bureau model strongly suggests a strong El Nino.” Hugh McDowell, from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said that the trend has been in that direction and that all climate models have been trending towards a stronger event. Mr McDowell warned that predictions are less reliable at this time of the year.
Other researchers are more optimistic. Experts believe that a fully-formed event will follow. “If we have a new El Nino on top of that, it will probably cause an additional global warming of 0.2-0.25C,” Dr Josef Ludescher from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research said. “The impact of El Nino is reduced a few months following the peak. This is why 2024 is likely to be the warmest year on record. “Image source, Anadolu Agency.” And we may, we’ll be close to 1.5C and perhaps we’ll temporarily go over. El Nino is likely to disrupt weather patterns in Australia and around the world. It will also weaken the monsoon. There are also more fundamental concerns that as heat is absorbed by the oceans, they may be less able store excess energy.
One scientist described being “extremely stressed and worried”. Karina von Schuckmann says that some research has shown the world warming in jumps. Little changes over years are followed by sudden leaps upwards. After El Nino subsides, temperatures may drop again. She told BBC News that “we still have a window of opportunity to act and we should take advantage of this to reduce the effects.” Graphics by Erwan RIVALL.