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UK prepares for food shortages in worst case scenario as Iran war continues

 

UK prepares for food shortages in worst case scenario as Iran war continues

Nicholas Watt,Newsnight political editorand
Jamie Whitehead
Getty Images A woman looks at two packets of raw chicken in a supermarketGetty Images

The UK could face food shortages, including chicken and pork, by the summer if the Iran war continues, in a worst case scenario drawn up by government officials.

A government source told the BBC it was planning for a scenario which would involve the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and breakdowns in the supply of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is used in the slaughter of some animals and in food preservation.

A spokesperson from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs said it would continue to work closely with businesses to tackle the impact of the war.

“Reasonable worst case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events”, they added.

Since the US and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran, the Iranian government has responded by effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial waterway for oil and gas transport – causing prices for petrol, diesel and fertiliser to soar.

Speaking after The Timesreported that senior officials had rehearsed scenarios of how British industry would be affected if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, Business Secretary Peter Kyle said CO2 shortages werenot a concern “at this moment”.

“Right now, people should go on as they are,” he told Sky News.

Food sector leaders echoed the government reaction, with some saying they were more concerned about price rises than shortages.

Tesco’s chief executiveKen Murphy said the supermarket giant’s growers, suppliers and manufacturers were yet to raise supply risks.

“We are in very good shape,” Murphy said, but he would not comment on what could happen to food prices as”we don’t know what it’s going to look like, because clearly this is a volatile, unpredictable situation”.

The British Retail Consortium, which represents over 200 of some of the largest brands, including Sainsburys and Pret, said it expected the government to carry out contingency planning, adding that retailers were experienced in managing supply chain disruption.

“However, the situation in the Middle East continues to add inflationary pressure at a time when retailers already face significant new costs from domestic policies,” a spokesperson said.

Other industry groups, such as the Food and Drink Federation, forecast food inflation to reach 9% by December, while the Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC) raised concerns about increased fertiliser costs.

Head of the AIC Jo Gilberton said rising fertiliser prices could have an impact on “planting decisions in autumn”.

“That’s when we end up with a potential food crisis, if the fertiliser and the fuel costs are too much.”

Last month, the National Farmers’ Union said cucumber and tomato prices could rise over the next six weeks, with the cost of other crops and milk increasing in the next three to six months.

Lord Toby Harris chairs the National Preparedness Commission, an independent body which promotes policies to help the UK be better prepared for threats and challenges.

He told BBC’s Radio 4 “the more that we test how we manage under various sorts of scenarios, the better that’s going to be” as international events continue to affect the UK.

In response to the war in the Middle East, the government last month temporarily restarted the Ensus bioethanol plant, which produces CO2, renewable fuel and protein animal feed, after it was mothballed in September 2025.

A spokesperson for the plant told the BBC they were “confident we can continue to produce CO2 for the country’s needs for the foreseeable future”.

The majority of the UK’s CO2 is imported from Europe but it is often produced as a by-product when companies make fertiliser, which needs natural gas.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund warned that the war could plunge the global economy into recession, with the UK set to be the hardest hit of the world’s advanced economies.

US President Donald Trump has suggested talks aimed at ending the war in Iran could resume this week, after negotiations collapsed at the weekend, prompting the US to blockade Iranian ports.

On Wednesday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the US made a “mistake” by ending diplomatic negotiations with Iran and entering into military conflict.

Additional reporting by Rachel Flynn

 

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Senior official ousted over Mandelson security row to face MPs

 

Senior official removed over Mandelson security dispute to face MPs13 mins agoAdam GoldsmithReutersThe Chief Foreign Office Official who was fired after it was revealed that Peter Mandelson received a security clearance in spite of concerns raised during the vetting procedure is expected to be questioned by MPs on Tuesday. This will add to the potential Sir Olly Robbins, the senior official who was fired over the Mandelson security row, will face MPs on Tuesday. On Friday, he called the decision to not inform him earlier “staggering”, and added: “That I was not told that he failed security vetting while I was telling Parliament due process had been adhered to is unforgivable.” “PA MediaMandelson’s appointment as US ambassador was announced by the government in December 2024. The developed vetting process began the same day. He officially took up the position in February 2025 before being removed in September last year when more details about his past relationships with convicted sex offenders Jeffrey Epstein were revealed Sir Olly was the most senior civil service member at the Foreign Office when Mandelson was selected for the Washington role. Dame Emily Thornberry requested that Sir Olly appear before the Foreign Affairs Committee, which she chairs, to answer questions. They also questioned whether Sir Olly had ever seen the recommendation for the Foreign Office to reject Lord Mandelson’s screening. Allies said that it was unlikely that he saw the entire report and he may have only seen specific risks during the process. The Cabinet Office oversees a government agency that carries out vetting of government employees. This agency then makes recommendations to the hiring departments. Chris Mason: Mandelson nightmare haunts Starmer once againWhat we know about Mandelson’s vetting and clearanceKeir Starmer

 

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‘Staggering’ I was not told Mandelson failed vetting, says PM

 

At a press conference at Westminster, she said that Sir Keir was “unable to hope” to lead the country because of his “incompetence”. She accused him of being “so She said that she did not have enough Conservative MPs to win a no-confidence vote. “The people who are able to do that, and make this happen, are Labour MPs. “Key questions facing the government over Mandelson vettingWhat’s the Developed Vetting Security Clearance at the centre of Mandelson Row?Chris Mason : Mandelson nightmare is haunt The fact that I wasn’t informed that he failed security vetting at the time I told Parliament that due procedure had been followed, is unforgivable. “I’m furious that not only was I unaware, but no minister was informed. “I intend to go to the Parliament on Monday and present all the facts in full transparency so that Parliament has the complete picture. He added: “Number 10, who was appointed by the Cabinet Office, was not informed that he failed security vetting. That is unacceptable.” “Senior minister Darren Jones earlier said Sir Keir had not misled MPs when he said due process had been followed, and therefore would not be resigning.Jones told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, there was no obligation in the rules for ministers to be told about security vetting decisions when Lord Mandelson was appointed, something he said he had now changed.BBC News understands the United Kingdom Security Vetting service gave the Foreign Office an explicit recommendation not to approve Lord Mandelson’s vetting.It’s understood that UKSV, which carried out the work on behalf of the Cabinet Office, presented the Foreign Office with a list of potential risks as well as a recommendation summing up those risks.That recommendation can fall into one of three categories, described by sources as “yes”, “yes with caveats” and “no”.Sources say the recommendation given to the Foreign Office by the vetting services was a “no”.The Foreign Office is believed to be the only government department in Whitehall with the authority to overrule such a recommendation.Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said the PM’s explanation “just doesn’t stack up,” adding: “I am afraid he is going to have to go. “Sir Ed called for an investigation into whether Sir Keir deliberately misled Parliament by the Privileges committee, which was used to hold Boris Johnson accountable over the Partygate scandal. “Or, as a civil servant was he receiving direction from someone else, and if so by whom?” The Mandelson scandal was a tipping point in my opinion. I do not regret it. I stated my position. I stand by it. I don’t retreat from it. I believe Lord Mandel It will be delivered to your inbox each weekday. Keir StarmerNational Security

 

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Mandelson saga is a messy palaver – and the questions continue to swirl

 

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Key questions facing government over Mandelson vetting

 

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AI minister Kendall says she doesn’t use AI at work

 

AI minister Kendall says that she doesn’t use AI for work. 13 hours agoMatt ChorleyPresenter, BBC Radio 5 Live and NewsnightBBCLiz Kendall, cabinet minister responsible for Artificial Intelligence, has revealed that she does not use AI to do her job. She spoke to me in a driverless car powered by AI, in an interview with BBC Radio 5 Live and Newsnight, Kendall stated she only uses AI technology in her personal life, such as after an allergic reaction to a face cream. He said that no one should waste time on things AI can do faster and better. However, his cabinet colleagues were less enthusiastic. Kendall said, “I use AI more for my personal life than at work. I have to be honest.” “I’m more likely to use AI in my personal life.” “Government officials were expected to use the technology. Kendall said that while she was working at the Department for Work and Pensions staff were using AI in job centres to rewrite CVs for people seeking employment. It could also be used summarise answers to government consultations. The New Statesman reported recently that “British law is already being written by AI”, but claimed that it had been decided to not make the use of AI public. “Explaining her recent use of AI, the Labour MP asked: “Do you wanna know the last thing that I used it for ?… I can’t even believe I’m going to say this… I had an allergic reaction. I put on a probably expensive and pointless potion that I had to pay for. “I had AI go through all the ingredients in the products. There are so many products, I asked AI to look at the ingredients to see if there was one common ingredient. They also suggested a cream that would help me stop the eczema. “I checked sources and it came from the National Eczema Society. I went to the pharmacy, I asked for her best cream. She named the same one. I bought it, and it worked. The government’s Sovereign AI Unit is a venture-capital fund that will invest in British AI firms, backed with PS500m public funding. The UK firm Wayve’s driverless car demo was intended to highlight the potential that the minister sees with AI-powered technology. However, there are concerns about the impact of the tech on jobs. In London alone, 123,000 people held taxi or private hire vehicle licenses last year. There were 381,000 in England. Driverless cars could threaten their jobs. Kendall said: “I believe we’ve got level with people and tell them that jobs will be created. Jobs will change. Some jobs will go. But new ones will replace them.” “I can understand why people worry about the impact of driverless cars on jobs. We are offering free AI skills to 10 million people who work in the workforce. That’s our goal. We think this is really important for the future. “But I think it’s likely to be a mixture, isn’t that right? People will still want drive. “Some people have expressed concerns about the dangers posed by AI. YouGov’s poll from last year revealed that 75% of Britons were concerned that AI could pose a danger to humanity. Kendall was asked if she was concerned about the technology. She replied: “No. I don’t think it is dangerous.” We must consider the implications of this for jobs. She added: “I am not an engineer or computer scientist, but I am a history professor and you can see in previous industrial and technology revolutions that this type of transition has led to some jobs being lost and others created. “My key question is: What is the role of government? “Our belief is that we shouldn’t leave people to deal with this inevitable job transition on their own. We need to upskill our nation. We need to upskill the nation.

 

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