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President Donald Trump berated Jerome Powell for years as he sought to pressure Powell, then the Federal Reserve chairman, to cut interest rates. So far, he has given a pass to the new Fed chief, Kevin Warsh, whom he nominated this year.
Now, not even four months into Warsh’s tenure, the honeymoon might be over. Trump has ratcheted up his calls for an interest rate cut in recent weeks, setting the stage for a potential showdown after Wednesday’s decision from Fed policymakers.
Warsh faces a “time to choose,” as economists at UBS put it: Will the Fed hold its key rate steady yet again in the face of rising inflation, or will it increase the rate to battle stubbornly high prices — and potentially enrage Trump?
Trump adviser Kevin Hassett, chair of the National Economic Council, said he thinks the “president will have something to say about it” if the Fed makes a “big move” with rates. (Hassett was a candidate for the Fed job before Trump picked Warsh.)
“The president will have an opinion about it,” Hassett told CNBC on Friday. “I’m sure he believes that there’s plenty of room for interest rates to go down, and he voices that opinion while respecting the independence of the Fed.”
The Fed has not raised interest rates since 2023, when Joe Biden was president and the economy was contending with sky-high inflation. But market odds for an interest rate increase Wednesday were at more than 90% on Tuesday after inflation data for August came in hot at a 3.4% annual clip. The Fed’s target for inflation is 2%.
‘Just do your own thing’
When Warsh took office in May, Trump said he wanted the new central bank chairman to just focus on the job.
“Don’t look at me, don’t look at anybody, just do your own thing and do a great job,” Trump said at the time. That was in stark contrast with the insults Trump hurled at Powell, whom he nominated to be Fed chair during his first term.
Trump has not insulted Warsh, but he has become more vocal about his desire for a rate cut, once again raising questions about the Fed’s independence.
“I’d love to see lower interest rates,” Trump said at a July 29 White House event. Trump said Warsh was “fantastic” but claimed the Fed’s board was “political” and “they want to keep rates up.” Trump again brought up rates last month, saying: “We would really like to see interest rates come down.”
He went even further this month. “We should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world,” Trump said Sept. 4, after the consumer price index report showed inflation was not slowing. Trump complained that higher rates cost the country more on its debt. “We should be at 1% or a half a percent,” he said. “We shouldn’t be at 4%.”
Trump continued later in a social media post, “A STRONG COUNTRY MEANS A LOWER INTEREST RATE.” The post ended: “High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!”
The inflation situation
Several factors are stoking inflation.
Deutsche Bank analysts noted that “forward-looking elements of the inflation picture” have gotten worse. “Recent minutes to FOMC meetings showed the Committee is focused on three forces in particular — energy, tariffs / supply chains, and AI. At least two out of three of these factors points to more elevated inflation pressures” than the Fed faced at its July rate-setting meeting, they wrote.
Since then, the Trump administration has entered a potentially protracted trade war with Canada, which was America’s second-largest source of imports last year. Energy prices have soared back near all-time highs. On Tuesday, U.S. crude oil touched $106 per barrel, and international Brent crude oil traded around $109 per barrel. Gasoline prices remain 45% higher than in February, when the war with Iran started. Diesel prices have reached their highest level ever, putting pressure on farmers and truckers who rely on it.
“The cost of diesel gets into just about everything,” KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk recently told NBC News.
The expansive AI data center buildout has fueled economic growth while pushing some supply chains to their breaking points. Data in Friday’s inflation reading showed the price of computer software, accessories and related items rising 25.4% over the last year — the category’s largest increase on record. Consumer technology companies from Apple to Xbox to Amazon have raised some prices as a result.
A rate hike carries risks of its own, according to economists, including Moody’s Mark Zandi. The labor market, for one, is solid, if not spectacular. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, according to August jobs data released this month.
While inflation is high, the effects of Trump’s tariffs and energy shocks from the Iran and Ukraine wars should fade without any help, Zandi wrote on LinkedIn. So, given the current economic circumstances, if the central bank hikes rates, “it must push growth below potential, and that is hard to do without layoffs, rising unemployment, and igniting a self-reinforcing negative cycle,” he wrote.
Tech companies are shelling out hundreds of billions of dollars to buy equipment, build massive data centers and hire developers to support their AI ambitions, while corporations have reaped major profits. The average American, though, has seen wage growth slow to an annual rate of 3.1%, lagging behind the pace of inflation.
“The challenge is even more complicated because AI-related investment appears to be powering the economy, while the non-AI economy is already struggling,” Zandi said.

ISTANBUL — In Turkey, gold is far more than a decorative accessory. It is gifted throughout life’s major milestones and stashed safely at home—a time-honored practice designed to protect savings against frequent currency devaluations and a volatile national economy.
However, Turkish officials and economists warn that this culture of gold hoarding is actively undermining the country’s financial future.
At the bustling Mahmutpaşa Yokuşu market in the heart of Istanbul, store owners call out their wares while shoppers dart between stalls, snapping up everything from kitchen gadgets and blankets to elaborate wedding dresses.
Among them is Nefise Asker, a 23-year-old bride-to-be searching for the perfect outfit for her upcoming wedding photoshoot—one of six outfits she plans to wear over a multi-day celebration this September. Like many Turkish brides, Asker is eager to receive the traditional staple of Turkish wedding gifts: gold.
“We’ll share the gold as a couple to support our new life together,” Asker says.
Historically, gifted gold used to serve as financial insurance for wives who did not work outside the home.
“If everything goes south, you still have your gold that is gifted to you during your wedding, and that will be your lifetime savings,” explains Selva Demiralp, an economist at Istanbul’s Koç University and a former economist for the Turkish Federal Reserve.
That mindset extends far beyond newlyweds. In Turkey, the practice of holding wealth as physical gold or foreign currency outside the formal banking system—known locally as yastık altı, or “under the pillow”—is sometimes dismissed as an outdated habit. However, Demiralp emphasizes that this behavior is a logical defense against chronic instability.
“Once you look at why people do this, it stops looking irrational actually, and it’s a very rational response to a long history of high and unpredictable inflation, a few banking crises people still remember, and a general sense that the lira just doesn’t hold its value the way gold does,” Demiralp explains.
In Istanbul’s historic Grand Bazaar, Mehmet Yıldırımtürk sits in his cramped, stuffy shop counting gold coins on a glass countertop as a small fan circulates the warm air. Yıldırımtürk, who has worked as a currency exchanger and gold seller for over 50 years, views gold as an essential line of defense.
“Gold is a vital tool for Turks,” Yıldırımtürk says. “It helps protect them, especially from inflation.”
Inflation remains a chronic crisis in Turkey, hovering around 31% annually—one of the highest rates in the world. As the Turkish lira continues to weaken, daily living costs have skyrocketed. Gold, by contrast, offers stability, with prices hovering near all-time highs. Stashing physical gold at home provides Turkish families with a reliable financial cushion.
According to the Turkish finance ministry, Turkish households currently store roughly 5,000 tons of gold. At current prices, that hidden wealth amounts to approximately $600 billion, according to the head of the Turkish Central Bank.
Trust Gap
Beyond hedging against price increases, keeping savings hidden reflects a systemic distrust in official institutions. Demiralp’s research at Koç University highlights how severe this disconnect has become.
“We asked people directly how much they trust the country’s key economic institutions on a 0 to 10 scale, and nearly four in 10 rated their trust in commercial banks close to zero,” Demiralp notes.
Trust in the statistical agency was even lower, she said. Over half the respondents in her survey put it in the same near-zero range. So when people choose gold over a lira account, they are reacting to a broader credibility gap in institutions meant to manage and report on the economy.
Demiralp said that public mistrust of Turkish commercial banks is rooted in a combination of historical economic trauma, persistent inflation, and a broader credibility gap in institutions. Turkish households still carry memories of past banking crises, which creates a hesitation to leave their savings inside the formal banking sector.
This, she said, is further fueled by the stark reality of chronic inflation and negative real interest rates. When households see prices on daily goods rising at a higher rate than official inflation figures suggest, it erodes their faith in the government’s numbers. Therefore, holding money in the bank feels like an automatic loss of purchasing power compared to physical gold.
As Demiralp points out, “If you think inflation is going to run nearly 50% and the deposit rate you are being offered doesn’t come close to compensating for that, then gold looks like a safer bet in real terms. When we ask people directly what they plan to do with their savings going forward, gold is by a wide margin the single most popular answer.”
Wider Economy
Yet economists warn that keeping such a vast sum idle creates severe headwinds for the broader economy.
“It’s not being lent out to businesses,” Demiralp says. “And a good chunk of the gold has to be imported every year, which adds to the current account deficit. So it’s capital that’s parked rather than working.”
Demiralp notes that if hoarded gold were deposited into the formal banking system it would allow economic authorities to keep track of exact liquidity volumes, observe account behaviors, and design effective, targeted macroeconomic policies based on real data rather than rough estimates. It would restore the central bank’s ability to influence economic demand, making monetary policy tools effective again—a necessary step toward achieving price stability, attracting foreign investment, and reducing unemployment.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly urged citizens to bring their gold out from under their mattresses, launching various government incentives and banking programs aimed at converting physical gold into bank deposits.
“This brings no benefit to either my people themselves or to my state,” Erdoğan declared in a 2023 Cabinet speech.
Despite these initiatives, the government’s efforts have largely failed. Critics point to Erdoğan’s unorthodox economic policies and heavy-handed control over financial institutions—including firing six bank heads over seven years—as key factors fueling public skepticism.
“The gold just isn’t coming out from under their pillows,” Yıldırımtürk says. “The government just hasn’t been able to provide that confidence yet.”
And bride-to-be Nefise Asker agrees. She has no intention of depositing her wedding gold into a bank account.

An Arizona man had his $475,000 home sold from under him by his homeowners’ association (HOA) after falling behind on his dues, which amounted to less than $1,000.
Toby Newton, 53, purchased the four-bedroom home in Mesa in 2022, but fell behind on his quarterly HOA dues after losing his sales job and being diagnosed with diabetes, he told Fox News Digital. In addition, his partner has been battling breast cancer, he said.
“I was a year and a half behind because of the situation I found myself in with my girlfriend and myself getting sick,” Newton said. “That’s how it started. I called the HOA to make an arrangement with them to get them paid and they wouldn’t talk to me. They told me I had to talk to their attorney and that’s when it blew up.”
83-YEAR-OLD WINS SETTLEMENT AFTER HONOLULU SLAPPED HER WITH $590K FINE OVER WEBSITE GLITCH
Newton paid about $170 to the HOA every three months, eventually owing $977 after getting into financial trouble.
Fox News Digital has reached out to the HOA’s attorney.
Newton reportedly contacted the Superstition Springs Community Master Association in an effort to work out a payment so he could catch up on his dues. Initially, he offered to pay an extra $50 per month on top of his monthly assessments in an effort to chip away at his debt.
That was denied, he said.
83-YEAR-OLD WOMAN SUES HONOLULU AFTER WEBSITE ERROR TURNED INTO $590K NIGHTMARE
A monthly increase of $200 was also rebuffed, he said. The HOA eventually began foreclosure proceedings.
“I just don’t understand how an HOA that’s supposed to be there for the community doesn’t work with the community at all,” Newton said.
Meanwhile, the debt ballooned to nearly $10,000, Newton said, mostly for attorney’s fees for the HOA. The home was sold at a public auction in November 2025 for just $8,172, the Mesa Tribune reported.
“The sale happened and I’m still in the house,” said Newton. “I haven’t been kicked out yet. That’s what I’m trying to avoid. I’m just trying to save it because I don’t know how it could go from owing them $977 to $10,000.”
Newton said he wasn’t aware of the auction until two days before. He said he has no plans to leave the home, which he purchased to spend his golden years after retirement.
“We are holding on to hope that we may still have a chance to buy our home back,” an online fundraiser created by Newton and his partner states.
TRUMP SCORES MAJOR WIN AS CONGRESS PASSES HOUSING CRACKDOWN ON WALL STREET INVESTORS
HOAs have long been accused of abusing their authority and fining, or even foreclosing on homeowners, for committing even the most mundane violations.
Across the country, many HOAs are taking a tougher stance on unpaid dues amid mounting financial pressures. Real estate experts have said the aggressive collection efforts are being driven by rising operating costs, shrinking reserve funds, and concerns that unpaid assessments could leave associations unable to cover essential expenses, FOX Business previously reported.
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HOA-related foreclosures have jumped nearly 40% compared with two years earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported in August.

Paramount and the state attorneys general suing to block its merger with Warner Bros. Discovery were ordered by a judge to appear for a two-day settlement conference October 14-15 in a San Francisco courtroom.
It’s a mandated step for two sides approaching a trial, set in this case for early March, and doesn’t mean there’s been any particular behind-the-scenes progress in reaching an agreement. California AG Rob Bonta, who is leading a group of 12 AGs in the antitrust case, canceled a scheduled meeting last month after accusing Paramount of leaking details of a prior discussion. Paramount denied this.
Bonta has insisted publicly on “structural” remedies like asset sales that may include divesting Warner’s cable networks and retaining a degree of separation between the Paramount and Warner Bros film studios. Paramount CEO David Ellison has made promises about the merged company’s film output (30 a year) and theatrical terms. He has also threatened to relocate the studio out of California if the case drags on.
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The company will start racking up a $7 million-a-day ticking fee on October 1 if the merger hasn’t closed as part of its agreement with WBD. That’s the date, Ellison told senior managers, that he’d start looking seriously at other states.
Magistrate Judge Thomas S. Hixson told the parties in a court filing Monday to send him, and exchange with each other, settlement statements no later than October 7. Those are documents that briefly state claims and defenses, a description of the major issues in dispute, “a candid evaluation of the parties’ likelihood of prevailing” and relief sought. The parties should describe any “discrete issue that, if resolved, would facilitate the resolution of the case” and their positions on settlement, including present demands and offers and a history of past settlement discussions.
Either side also can submit an additional confidential letter to the court.
The filing said the parties should be prepared to discuss settlement objectives, any perceived impediments to settlement “and the possibility of a creative resolution of the dispute.”
Reps from the WGA, which is also suing to block the merger, will participate.
The list of attendees is due October 12. The settlement statements are private, as are the meetings. Statements made during the conference are confidential and will not be admissible at trial if the case does not settle.
The sides were told to notify the court if the case settles earlier.
Meanwhile, a separate hearing is set for September 24 where a judge will rule on Paramount’s request that plaintiffs put up a $1.88 billion bond to cover the ticking fee. It will accrue daily even if the company ultimately prevails at trial.
The states argue that nothing beyond a nominal bond is due. The Department of Justice, which approved the Par-WBD merger in June, came out in support of the bond earlier today. “The bond requirement forces parties to have skin in the game, and also provides a measure of protection to defendants who were ultimately found to be wrongly enjoined,” it wrote.