Labour’s London squeeze reveals a fragmented British political scene5 hours agoNick RobinsonToday Programme PresenterBBC”Doesn’t one of you know what keeps them up at Number 10?” asked a Cabinet Minister.Scotland? Wales? I was told no. London was the answer. The reason Sir Keir and his team were so anxiously awaiting the results of the council elections in London next week is because it represents Labour’s heartland. One in seven Labour MPs represent constituencies in London. David Lammy is also a London MP, as is the Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who is trying to take over Starmer’s position. Steve Reed, the Secretary of State for Housing in the Cabinet, completes this quartet of powerful London-based MPs. The capital is home to a large percentage of the party activists and members who select the party leaders. Labour’s core will be hurt by losses in London. Getty ImagesOfcourse, politicians of all parties are known to make dramatic statements before elections, sometimes out of fear and sometimes to manage expectation. This year, almost everyone expects Labour to suffer serious losses in London. YouGov predicts that it could be Labour’s worst result in London for almost 50 years. And those losses would come as a result of a squeeze on both sides of politics. Labour is being attacked by the Greens, in London’s progressive inner-boroughs, and by Reform in the traditionally socially conservative outer-ring. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats also expect to gain councils. Tony Travers, an academic with a long history in London’s politics at the London School of Economics says that the capital could be about to experience a “political quake”. It’s not just important for London. It also provides an insight into the dilemma Labour faces about which direction to take, and a warning of the fate that might await the party at next general election. In a corner of east London, however, the story was different. After all votes were counted it was clear that Labour fared better in London than the rest of the nation. The result showed how dominant Labour had become in London. Over the next 14-years, the Labour Party strengthened its control over councils and the Labour Mayor Sir Sadiq won three elections in a line. YouGov and JL Pattersons polling suggests that they may lose the top spot in a few of these. Hackney votersRidley road market in Hackney has a maze of open air stalls selling everything from textiles to fresh fruits. Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party, was one of its visitors this month. The Greens now hope to take over this council that has been ruled by Labour since the 1970s. YouGov predicts Hackney will be one of the boroughs to fall to the Greens at election night. “I feel that it’s unfair and unbalanced at the moment,” says a woman. She is a full-time working single mother. She believes Polanski has “good ideas about taxing rich people”, adding that she is “really fed up” with getting poorer as she gets older. Prof Tony Travers believes that the Greens have capitalized on the voters’ concern about the cost of life. “The Greens are not talking about the environment anymore,” he says. The Hackney Greens’ manifesto places “Climate and Environmental Justice”, at the bottom of its list of values, after anti-austerity and putting workers first. They want a wealth tax and stricter rent controls. They also want 100% council tax relief to the lowest-income residents. They claim they will “defend migrants’ rights and stand up to the hostile environment created by Westminster politicians”. This week Polanski was forced to defend his party’s controversial promises, including legalising class A drug. The Greens in Hackney promise to push for decriminalisation of sex work, and to end the “prostitute warning”, a police warning given to sexworkers, which they say is “discriminatory” and “harmful”. They also want to stop “discriminatory enforcement against delivery drivers and riders, recognising many are migrants who face exploitation, harassment, and unjust enforcement”. The party wants to cut police funding because “the Metropolitan Police are institutionally racist, sexist, misogynistic and homophobic”. Getty ImagesThe coalition Polanski tries to build in Hackney and six other target councils of inner-London is similar to Jeremy Corbyn: young, anti-the-wealthy, urban, Muslim and anti-Israel. Another woman told me that it was a choice made with both the head and the heart. “I think that with my head, it’s Labour. I think my heart is with the Greens. “Barking and Dagenham” A few miles beyond the old East End lies a very different challenge for Labour. In Barking and Dagenham the main challenge comes from Reform. YouGov predicts that Labour will lose its council seat to Nigel Farage. “This area has seen so much immigration over the last few decades. Ella tells us that the area has changed a lot. I’m talking to her at BabyZone – a hub for parents on one of Europe’s largest council estates: Beacontree. The share of the population who describe themselves as white has dropped from 58% in the 2011 census to only 45% in 2021. And the borough is home to a high proportion of asylum seekers. Many lamp posts in this area have flags with union jacks or the St George’s Cross. One woman at the baby group told me that she didn’t like these flags because she called them “racist”. She’s still not happy with Labour. She says, “I think reform should beat Labour.” “Labour says they do things but don’t do it. You can’t enter the hospitals. The appointments are stacked up. “Ella doesn’t object to demographic changes. But many people here do. “I don’t believe [other residents] like the changes in the community. It’s just a matter of people not being able to integrate well and understand each other. “Reform has made inroads in other Labour areas, where white working-class people are struggling to survive. The words I heard repeatedly were that the place has changed, and we no longer recognise it. Dave, a man I meet in a local bar, tells me that the area has gone downhill. “I’ve been here my whole life, I went to school here. You wouldn’t recognize anyone around here anymore. “When you mention immigration, people use the race card against you. It has nothing to do with it. My granddaughter is Indian. The refugees don’t work. Everything is a handout. We work our asses off to pay for the things that are coming into the borough. “Getty ImagesWe are just a few minutes from the border of Essex and Nigel Farage is targeting the votes of the “Essex woman” or “Essexman” that we used to refer to during the Thatcher years. Farage is playing on the resentment that voters feel towards the policies of London’s City Hall and Westminster. He has promised to allow locals to vote on whether they want to leave London and move to Essex, where they feel more comfortable. The Conservatives are trying to retake their old strongholds of Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet. They lost these areas to Labour in 2022. YouGov has the Conservatives leading in Barnet in the northwest part of the city with 25%, six points in front of Labour. It worked for Margaret Thatcher in 1990, when she was under pressure to resign. She used victories at Westminster and Wandsworth in order to head off these calls, but those interested in political history will recall that she was forced out of Number 10 six months later. As for Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats, the party is polling about the same as it did four years ago, but he still needs to gain to convince MPs, activists, and spooked MPs by the rise in the Greens, that his low-key strategy is still working. The Liberal Democrats have historically performed well when the two biggest Westminster parties do poorly in the polls, as they are currently doing. That’s a sign that modern British politics is fragmented. It could mean no party will win control of most London councils, and that the parties will struggle to work together to run local services. More than six million people are eligible to vote in London’s next week’s election. This is about the same as the combined population of Scotland and Wales. The results in London will not only determine who runs essential public services such as schools, social services, and rubbish collection. They could also be a sign of Labour’s fate on a national level. He summarized his party’s prospects with a few words, “We’re at risk of being stonked.” “Top picture credit PA and ReutersMore From InDepthA new financial crisis could be on the way – and it won’t look like the last one.Relish and dread the’shambles” that Starmer’s’shambles hangs over Scotland’s and Wales’ elections.If Plaid wins in Wales, it won’t mean that independence will happen – not yet.BBC InDepth provides the best analysis with fresh perspectives, challenging assumptions, Emma Barnett and John Simpson present their selection of thought-provoking deep readings and analysis every Saturday. Sign up here for the newsletterConservative PartyZack PolanskiKeir StarmerLondonReform UKGreen Party of England and WalesUK elections 2026Labour PartyLiberal Democratic
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