In a news conference on Wednesday, Mr. Warsh said the Fed would meet eight times next year as usual. But only seven of those meetings will include a vote on interest rates. The eighth “will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy,” he said.
In 2028, the Fed expects to hold just six rate-setting meetings, with two meetings dedicated to discussions of longer-run strategy, Mr. Warsh said.
“Getting policy right involves assessing near-term developments at timely, regular and information rich intervals,” Mr. Warsh said, “but it’s equally important we reserve time and space as an intellectually diverse group for strategic deliberations, for thinking anew about big questions, looking out over longer time horizons.”
Some economists have criticized the idea of holding fewer meetings, arguing it could make it harder for the Fed to respond quickly to changes in inflation and the labor market. The move also fits a pattern during the early months of Mr. Warsh’s chairmanship toward providing less information to investors and the public, reversing a decades-long trend toward greater openness.
Other economists, however, have defended the idea. They argue that providing more time between meetings will make it easier for policymakers to identify meaningful shifts in economic conditions. And they note that the Fed can hold emergency meetings if necessary, as it has done numerous times in the past.
Lisa D. Cook, a Fed governor who President Trump has tried to fire, issued her first-ever dissent on the Fed’s monetary policy settings in favor of a quarter-point increase on Wednesday. She was joined by Beth M. Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, who has dissented repeatedly this year.
In a statement accompanying the rate decision, the Fed conveyed that it had more work to do to quell inflation, which it described as “elevated.”
At a news conference after the decision, Kevin M. Warsh, the Fed chairman, started with an upbeat assessment of the economy, but stressed that inflation was still too high.
He also said the central bank would cut the number of meetings at which it votes on interest rates. Mr. Warsh said the Fed would still meet eight times in 2027, but one of those meetings would focus “exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy” and would not include a vote on interest rates. Starting in 2028, the Fed plans to dedicate two meetings to such broader strategy.
The Fed gathered days before midterm elections that will decide whether Republicans retain control of Congress and how much scope President Trump will have to enact his agenda in the second half of his term. Affordability issues are central for voters after nearly six years in which inflation has overshot the Fed’s target.
“Politics played no role in the decision,” Mr. Warsh said when asked about the midterms.
Mr. Warsh, who took over as chairman of the Fed in May, has made taming inflation the top priority of his four-year term.
Since officials at the Fed met in September, inflation data has been far from reassuring. Price pressures appear to be broadening out after shocks caused by Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Energy prices have shot higher, threatening to spill over into other goods and services.
The economy has continued to grow at a solid pace despite these headwinds, fueled by an investment boom stemming from companies scrambling to expand their artificial intelligence capabilities. Wage gains have failed to keep up with rising prices, however, meaning Americans are earning less for an hour of work.
U.S. government borrowing costs have risen sharply, making not only mortgages and other consumer loans more expensive, but also financing for companies. Certain A.I. companies, which have issued a significant amount of debt to fund their expansion plans, appear particularly exposed.
As a result, financial conditions, which track the availability of credit across the economy, appear slightly less accommodative. To what extent this will help the Fed tame inflation depends in large part on whether these conditions tighten further.
Ms. Hammack’s dissent on Wednesday was widely expected given her views that the Fed’s policy settings are not restraining the economy. Ms. Cook’s dissent was notable in that she is locked in a legal battle with Mr. Trump, who has sought to pressure the Fed into lowering rates. Ms. Cook became a target in the summer of 2025 when the president seized on unproven allegations that she committed mortgage fraud before joining the central bank.
Mr. Trump renewed that effort after the Supreme Court ruled against him on the matter earlier this year. The White House started its own investigation into Ms. Cook and summoned her in for an in-person hearing.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate steady amid elevated inflation as policymakers opted to wait for additional economic data after hiking rates in September.
Fed policymakers voted 10-2 to leave the federal funds rate at its target range of 3.75% to 4%. The move follows a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, which was the central bank’s first interest rate increase since July 2023.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank’s panel responsible for monetary policy moves, noted that economic activity “is expanding at a strong pace” despite uncertainty that is in part due to geopolitical developments, with strong productivity growth and capital investment, while job growth has “kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
The FOMC statement added that inflation remains elevated and that the “accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2% goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.”
WHY THE FED ISN’T READY TO DECLARE VICTORY ON INFLATION
There were two dissenters from the FOMC decision to leave interest rates unchanged: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Lisa Cook each voted in favor of hiking interest rates by 25 basis points.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said that policymakers go through a process of “interrogating reality” as they assess economic conditions at each FOMC meeting, adding that the process has been complicated by high levels of investment, a steady labor market and elevated inflation.
Warsh noted that the labor market conditions are “quite positive” on that side of the Fed’s dual mandate, which is to promote full employment, but added that on the price stability side of the mandate “Americans, of course, are still dealing with inflation that has been running above the committee’s objective for close to six years. It’s our responsibility to get inflation down.”
He said that since the Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points in September, policymakers have seen that financial and credit conditions have tightened for some businesses and households “much as we would expect.”
Warsh added that market participants are “becoming somewhat more discerning in their capital allocations. And while overall financial conditions are tighter, I’m unwilling and unable to call them tight. But broadly, these developments go in the direction of achieving a longer, more durable period of economic growth and price stability.”
The Fed chair also offered an update on the FOMC’s review of its meeting schedule, saying that starting next year the FOMC will hold still hold eight meetings per year, but one of those meetings in 2027 “will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated. The rest will be regular FOMC policy-setting meetings.”
Warsh added that in 2028 he expects the FOMC will have two meetings dedicated to strategy discussions, with six related to policy decisions.
“Getting policy right involves assessing near-term developments at timely, regular and information-rich intervals, but it’s equally important we reserve time and space as an intellectually diverse group for strategic deliberations, for thinking anew about big questions, looking out over longer time horizons,” he said.
“I believe the setting of the meeting schedule and agenda is more than some administrative detail. It’s an institutional choice affecting the nature and the quality of our deliberations and ultimately, the wisdom of our decisions. It’s yet another change to get the conduct of monetary policy on the right track,” Warsh added.
FEDERAL RESERVE HIKES INTEREST RATES FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2023 AMID STUBBORN INFLATION
During the question-and-answer portion of the briefing, Warsh was asked if the Fed has a soft inflation target given that policymakers held rates steady at this meeting.
“What I can do is tell you there’s no soft inflation target and no implicit inflation target. There’s a target of price stability and it’s 2% as measured by PCE,” Warsh said. “When consumers interrogate reality, they look outside their window too. They go to the gas station too, and they see the prices are up.”
“If you look out over the horizon, if you look at most but not all measures, what you see is households, businesses, financial markets – they have the confidence that they should have that this central bank will deliver price stability,” he added.
The Fed chair was asked by FOX Business’ Edward Lawrence about the correlation between oil prices and inflation, and how fast inflation could fall in response to falling oil prices.
Warsh responded that “to the extent that oil prices were to move lower, again, probably due to geopolitical events, that’s something that we’re going to have to interrogate” in terms of the Fed’s dual mandate, and noted that futures prices for oil have “moved up over the course of the last several weeks, and I can’t help but take note of that too.”
The Fed chair was asked if the midterm elections next week factored into the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates on hold and said that “politics played no role in the decision,” adding that politics and the election weren’t discussed during the meeting and that there is “an information-rich interval in the coming period, having nothing to do with politics.”
WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC CHIEF REVEALS WHY AMERICANS AREN’T FEELING OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ECONOMY
What experts are saying
Kay Haigh, global head and CIO of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said that the firm expects that the Fed will “resume rate hikes in December.”
“September’s strong CPI print is a reminder that upside inflation risks remain, and the Fed is likelyto look to take out further insurance. While the September dot-plot suggests just one more hike, another increase in energy prices or further strong data prints could bring additional tightening into play next year,” Haigh added.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said that the “Fed has time on its side,” as inflation expectations are anchored and second-round effects are limited to give policymakers “room to wait for more data.”
“AI may be booming, but the broader economy is not firing on all cylinders, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty argues against rushing another hike. But the direction of travel remains clear. The Fed is still taking back some of last year’s rate cuts, and the two dissents underline that tightening bias,” Shah added.
What’s next for the Fed?
The FOMC’s next scheduled interest rate meeting is on Dec. 8-9, when the market anticipates policymakers will hike interest rates.
Following the decision to hold rates steady at the October meeting, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December rose to 82.6%, up from 78.3% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The odds of rates holding steady were little changed at 16.9%.
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What did the October meeting mean for markets?
The benchmark S&P 500 Index was up 0.26% for the day in the final hour of trading.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.28% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.17%.

Savannah Chrisley posted a triumphant Instagram selfie with her fiancé, Jason Galanis, amid backlash over their romance.
The pregnant reality star, 29, shared the smiling outdoor snap on her Story Tuesday night, marking the first time she has shown the 56-year-old’s face on her social media account.
“My forever adventure partner,” she captioned the sunny shot, alongside a heart emoji.
The hard-launch came on the heels of Galanis being identified as the father of Chrisley’s first child.
The “Growing Up Chrisley” alum kept her partner’s identity private and his face hidden from the camera when she revealed Tuesday morning that she is engaged and starting a family — but did drop clues.
She shared Galanis’ first name at the time, also telling “Unlocked” podcast listeners they had a “huge” age gap and met “in the world of politics.”
Chrisley fiercely defended the age difference, insisting he “does not look his age, nor does he act his age” with his “great” body and “sharp” mind.
She went on to write via Instagram that her fiancé has been her “safe place” and “protector” during her pregnancy.
Hours later, Galanis’ identity made headlines.
The convicted fraudster, once dubbed “Porn’s New King,” was in prison with Savannah’s dad, Todd Chrisley, at Federal Prison Camp in Pensacola, Florida.
Todd, 57, was serving time for conspiring to defraud banks and evade federal taxes, while Galanis had been found guilty of defrauding a Native American tribe and investors out of tens of millions of dollars.
The latter was sentenced to more than 14 years behind bars and ordered to forfeit about $80 million in proceeds and pay an equal amount in restitution.
The men were both pardoned by President Donald Trump last year.
Savannah, who became involved in criminal justice reform advocacy after her dad and mom Julie Chrisley’s releases, has not specified how she and Galanis first crossed paths.
The couple has been together since 2025, with Galanis proposing that December during a Cayman Islands vacation.
They are expecting to welcome their child in January and tie the knot in May.

Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 48% to 46% in a new St. Pete Polls survey of the Governor’s race for Florida Politics.
It is the first time in three surveys by the pollster that either candidate has led by more than a tenth of a point. The sample assumes an electorate 12 points more Republican than Democratic. Ballots cast through Tuesday morning are less than a point apart.
Another 3% picked someone else and 3% are undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, and Donalds’ lead is inside it.
Republicans hold a registration advantage of roughly 1.5 million voters over Democrats, nearly 5.69 million to almost 4.15 million at the Oct. 5 book closing, with another 3.35 million registered to no party. That is R+8 on the rolls. The poll’s sample is R+12.
St. Pete Polls’ mid-September survey had Donalds at 44% and Jolly at 43%, a tenth of a point apart before rounding. Its Oct. 5-7 survey had them tied at 45%, again a tenth of a point apart. Undecided voters have gone from 9% to 7% to 3% across the three polls. Donalds is up 3 points since the October survey and Jolly is up 1. That movement sits inside the margin of error of either poll.
Forty-six percent of respondents said they had already voted. Jolly leads that group 58% to 38%. Donalds leads the 54% who still plan to vote 57% to 34%. In the unweighted sample, 55% of Democrats said they had already voted. Among Republicans, 39% had.
As of Tuesday morning, 1,257,198 Republicans and 1,244,432 Democrats had cast ballots by mail or at early voting sites, per the Division of Elections. That is a Republican edge of 12,766 votes out of 3.15 million cast, four-tenths of a point. Democrats lead the mail vote 643,143 to 529,943. Republicans lead in-person early voting 727,255 to 601,289. At the same point in 2022, Republicans led Democrats in ballots cast by about 177,000.
Reweighted to an R+10 electorate, the same responses produce a 47% to 46% race. At R+9 it is a tie, and at the registration split Jolly is ahead by a point.
Jolly leads independents 56% to 34%, up from 49% to 33% in the October survey. Donalds holds 81% of Republicans and Jolly holds 81% of Democrats. Each takes about 14% of the other party.
Voters 70 and older back Donalds 65% to 31%. Jolly leads every younger group: 60% to 30% among voters under 30, 54% to 37% among those 30 to 49, and 49% to 45% among those 50 to 69.
Donalds leads the Tampa market 52% to 43% and Fort Myers 62% to 35%. Miami and West Palm Beach are tied at 47% apiece, and Orlando is within a point.
The University of North Florida’s survey released last week had Donalds ahead 49% to 47%.
St. Pete Polls surveyed 916 likely voters Oct. 25-27 for Florida Politics, using automated phone calls for 71% of responses and peer-to-peer text messages for 29%. Respondents were drawn at random from the state’s registered voter file as of Oct. 14. Results were weighted by political party, race, age, gender, and media market to match Florida’s active voter population.
The weighted sample is 43% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 27% other. Voters who said they do not plan to vote in the General Election were excluded. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
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From 36m ago
Trump rages at Alaska Democrat who reportedly recruited man with same name as Republican opponent
Donald Trump responded on Wednesday afternoon to a new investigation from the New York Times, which found that Mary Peltola’s Alaska Senate campaign actively recruited a man with the exact same name as Peltola’s Republican opponent in order to peel away votes.
In a social media post, Trump insisted that Peltola’s actions were illegal (it’s not clear that they were) and that she should be disqualified from the race.
“It has just been determined that the Democrats in Alaska illegally searched for, and recruited, a man named Dan Sullivan to run against our distinguished Republican Senator, Dan Sullivan, in order to defraud, confuse, and obfuscate the Election, thereby taking votes away from the REAL Senator, Dan Sullivan,” Trump wrote on his personal social media account.
The Peltola campaign had, up until now, denied any connection to the campaign launched by the second Dan Sullivan, who just so happened to share the name of Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent whose Senate seat Peltola is trying to win.
The Department of Justice has moved to try to block the certification of the Alaska Senate race, should the second, non-Republican Mr Sullivan pull enough votes to shift the outcome.
Trump continued: “The Democrats’ false statements were made under oath in Federal Court. Therefore, they perjured themselves, and should be liable for very serious consequences. Mary Peltola should suffer the Legal and Political consequences for what she has done, A FRAUD ON THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, and Dan Sullivan should be allowed to run without either Mary Peltola or FAKE Dan Sullivan on the Ballot.”
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Updated at 15.59 EDT
Key events
Here’s what you should know this afternoon:
Trump is bound for Ohio to campaign for Republican candidates in the state. Republicans are defending a seat there in a Senate race that has turned out much closer than might’ve been expected in reliably red Ohio. JD Vance, meanwhile, is campaigning in North Carolina, where Republicans face even longer odds.
Obama will campaign in Georgia alongside local Democrats. Obama will join Jon Ossoff, the Democratic senator, and Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor seeking to flip the Georgia governor’s office, on the campaign stage.
Alaska Democrats intentionally recruited a candidate with the same name as their opponent, according to a new report. The New York Times found that Mary Peltola’s campaign had, despite its public denials, recruited a man named Dan Sullivan to run against the Republican incumbent, also named Dan Sullivan. The revelation prompted Trump to call for Peltola’s removal from the ticket.
Flavio Bolsonaro, the defeated rightwing candidate for Brazil’s presidency, landed in Miami. Bolsonaro had been ordered to turn over his passports in connection with a criminal investigation following his defeat by leftwing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Instead, he fled across Brazil’s border with Argentina and flew to the US, where he’s been granted apparent safe harbor by Trump’s state department.
The US Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates steady. Despite inflation remaining above the central bank’s target of 2%, its leaders chose to maintain interest rates at their current level.
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Updated at 15.59 EDT
Trump shared another post to social media railing against Mary Peltola and calling for her disqualification over recruiting a second Dan Sullivan into the Senate race:
“In Alaska, I don’t think Mary Peltola, after perpetrating such a terrible scheme, should be allowed to run, because this is ELECTION FRAUD,” Trump wrote. “The Democrats cheated! They found a man named Dan Sullivan, put him on the Ballot, then lied to the Court, and said they didn’t know anything about it. That’s perjury. She shouldn’t be allowed to run, and neither should the FAKE Dan Sullivan!”
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Updated at 15.38 EDT
Trump rages at Alaska Democrat who reportedly recruited man with same name as Republican opponent
Donald Trump responded on Wednesday afternoon to a new investigation from the New York Times, which found that Mary Peltola’s Alaska Senate campaign actively recruited a man with the exact same name as Peltola’s Republican opponent in order to peel away votes.
In a social media post, Trump insisted that Peltola’s actions were illegal (it’s not clear that they were) and that she should be disqualified from the race.
“It has just been determined that the Democrats in Alaska illegally searched for, and recruited, a man named Dan Sullivan to run against our distinguished Republican Senator, Dan Sullivan, in order to defraud, confuse, and obfuscate the Election, thereby taking votes away from the REAL Senator, Dan Sullivan,” Trump wrote on his personal social media account.
The Peltola campaign had, up until now, denied any connection to the campaign launched by the second Dan Sullivan, who just so happened to share the name of Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent whose Senate seat Peltola is trying to win.
The Department of Justice has moved to try to block the certification of the Alaska Senate race, should the second, non-Republican Mr Sullivan pull enough votes to shift the outcome.
Trump continued: “The Democrats’ false statements were made under oath in Federal Court. Therefore, they perjured themselves, and should be liable for very serious consequences. Mary Peltola should suffer the Legal and Political consequences for what she has done, A FRAUD ON THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, and Dan Sullivan should be allowed to run without either Mary Peltola or FAKE Dan Sullivan on the Ballot.”
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Updated at 15.59 EDT
How an innocent chain restaurant became a talking point in the final days before the midterm election
It was a fairly standard quip from former president Barack Obama, delivered to an Ohio crowd as he stumped for the state’s Democratic midterm ticket.
“He’s got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory,” Obama said, mocking Trump’s redecorating of the White House. “Just gold everywhere.”
Little did the ex-president know, that remark would catapult the humble Cheesecake Factory, and its interior decorating choices, into the public consciousness, ahead of a decisive vote for control of Congress.
Republicans quickly hit back at the remark, accusing Obama of being elitist and out-of-touch (a well-worn talking point) for speaking ill of the interior decorating of a beloved restaurant enjoyed by vast swaths of everyday Americans.
My colleague Matthew Cantor has the full story here:
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Updated at 15.30 EDT
Vice President JD Vance just took the stage at a campaign event in Kinston, North Carolina.
Vance’s stop in the state comes as the Republican Senate nominee, Michael Whatley, is trailing in the polls to Democratic former governor Roy Cooper.
The vice president has been barnstorming across the country in recent weeks to stump for Republican candidates, serving as one of Trump’s top surrogates on the campaign trail. In the last several days, he’s made stops in Montana, Kansas, and Michigan, among other states.
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Updated at 14.59 EDT
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady
The Federal Reserve has opted to maintain interest rates at their current level, though inflation remains higher than the central bank’s target.
In a statement, the Fed characterized inflation as “elevated,” remaining above the bank’s target of two percent. Two members of the central bank’s board of governors voted against the decision to keep rates steady, preferring a quarter-point increase. One of them was Lisa Cook, the member who President Trump has tried and so far failed to remove over unsubstantiated claims of mortgage fraud.
President Trump has leaned on the Federal Reserve, as well as Kevin Warsh, his newly appointed chair of the body, to lower interest rates, hoping it would juice the economy. But lower rates can also worsen inflation, which the central bank has been dedicated to reining in.
My colleague Gaya Gupta has more on the Fed’s most recent decision here:
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Updated at 14.34 EDT
Dolores Huerta, titanic leader in labor and civil rights movement, dies at 96
Dolores Huerta, an influential leader in both the organized labor and civil rights movements who won organized major labor protests and won better conditions for agricultural workers, has died at 96.
Her namesake foundation said in a statement that she died at her home in Bakersfield, California, surrounded by family members.
“We are sad to announce that our beloved mother, Dolores Huerta, has passed away today at the age of 96,” Huerta’s family said in a statement. “As you can imagine, this is an incredibly difficult time for us, and we ask for privacy as we grieve this incredible loss to our family. We know that many of you around the world share in our mourning, and we will be following up on plans to recognize and celebrate her incredible life and legacy.”
Several prominent Democrats, including former president Bill Clinton and his wife, former first lady and secretary of state Hillary Clinton, as well as former House speaker Nancy Pelosi, publicly mourned Huerta’s death.
“With the passing of Dolores Huerta, Hillary and I have lost a dear friend, and we’ve all lost a stalwart champion of working Americans,” Bill Clinton said in a statement.
“Dolores was a dear friend, and we all responded to her rallying cry, ‘Sí se puede,’ which inspired generations of Americans to believe in the power of collective action,” Pelosi said in a statement.
The legacy of the labor movement Huerta helped lead was shaken earlier this year when Huerta, along with several other women, accused Cesar Chavez, another UFW co-founder and towering figure in the labor movement, of sexual abuse in an investigation published by the New York Times.
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Updated at 14.10 EDT
A Senate race in deep red South Carolina could go either way, poll finds
The race for a Senate seat in South Carolina, a state normally as deep red as they come, could break for either the Republicans or Democrats in the midterm election, a new poll from the New York Times and Siena University has found.
Darline Graham, the sister of the deceased senator Lindsey Graham who was appointed to finish his term, leads her Democratic challenger, Annie Andrews, by a single percentage point, the poll found. If Andrews were to win, it would be the first time in nearly three decades South Carolina has voted a Democrat into the Senate.
The poll comes amid growing Republican unease about the security of House and Senate seats that are normally reliable GOP strongholds. Polls show races in places such as Kansas, Ohio and Texas with margins much closer than anticipated, or even Democrats leading.
In recent weeks, top Republicans, including Donald Trump and JD Vance, have campaigned in those deep red states in addition to more expected battlegrounds, like Michigan.
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Updated at 13.28 EDT
‘A revolution in slow motion’: is Arizona’s wealthiest district finally done with Trump?
Mary Jo Pitzl
in Scottsdale, Arizona
Donald Trump has repeatedly asked voters to pretend that he is on the ballot in November’s crucial midterm elections. And in the comfortable confines of Arizona’s most affluent and fiercely contested congressional district, Trump is definitely on voters’ minds.
But whether that helps or hurts the warring congressional candidates in this sun-drenched swath of suburbia, where Teslas and walled-in luxury homes dominate, depends on who you ask.
“Any politician on the face of the Earth who’s a Republican is not getting my vote,” Tom Wolfe, a lifelong Republican, said while sitting down to a lunch of a burger and fries. Trump’s endorsement is a “death knell”, the 82-year-old said. He plans to vote for Democrats in next week’s elections.
For David McGahan, a retired accountant reveling in his retirement life in Rio Verde, a desert enclave outside Scottsdale, the economy and the country are working well under Trump.
“I like the course the country is on,” McGahan said while pumping gas at a local Costco. “Mostly,” he conceded, when a reporter noted the $101 charge for his fill-up.
Cushioned between blue cities and red counties, America’s suburbs have emerged nationally as political battlegrounds. That is especially true of Arizona’s first congressional district, which includes north Scottsdale and Paradise Valley.
Here, among the high-end golf courses and desert estates with breathtaking mountain views, the competition between Democrat Amish Shah – an emergency room doctor who narrowly lost the seat in 2024 – and Republican Jay Feely – a former NFL kicker backed by Trump – could help determine control of the House in November.
Since Trump’s election a decade ago, Republicans’ hold on the district has slipped, though the party still maintains a voter registration advantage. The seat is open, after Republican congressman David Schweikert opted to not seek a ninth term.
“These are your McCain-type voters,” said Matt Grodsky, a Democratic political strategist referring to the late Arizona senator and 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain. They’re business owners, hold college degrees and relatively tuned in to politics.
Given the current dissatisfaction with the Trump agenda and no incumbent with built-in name ID, Grodsky said circumstances are ripe for a change in this one-time Republican stronghold.
double quotation markIf there’s going to be a swing, it should be this cycle.
You can read Mary Jo Pitzl’s dispatch here:
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Updated at 12.55 EDT
Will ‘prairie populism’ defeat Republicans in the midterms? – podcast
Adam Hamilton in Kansas, Dan Osborn in Nebraska, Joshua Turek in Iowa. They’re all hoping to flip ruby-red states in the midterm elections next Tuesday.
In this episode of our Politics Weekly America podcast, Jonathan Freedland speaks to Rachel Leingang about her reporting across the midwest, where she has charted the renaissance of progressive populism.
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Updated at 12.39 EDT
US costs of Iran war rise to over $47bn, Pentagon estimates
The US military has spent over $47bn so far on Donald Trump’s war against Iran, more than 25% higher than the defense department’s estimate in July, according to Pentagon data first obtained by Reuters.
The figure includes $29bn in munitions fired by US forces, while the destruction of other weapons platforms, such as fighter jets, has cost $6bn. The figures does not account for damage sustained by US military bases in the region during the last eight months.
The disclosure ​comes as Republicans scramble to mitigate the ⁠political fallout of the deeply unpopular conflict, launched by the US and Israel in February, ahead of next week’s midterm elections that will determine control of ​Congress for the next two years.
The war’s impact on global energy costs and the cost-of-living crisis in the US has weighed on support for Republican candidates, even in previously reliably red states, ​and has tanked Trump’s approval ratings.
Trump is reportedly considering further strikes against Iran after the midterms.
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Updated at 12.40 EDT
How Trump is trying to disrupt the midterms – video explainer
From redrawing electoral maps to installing a sense of uncertainty around the electoral process ahead of the midterms on 3 November, Republicans have deployed several tactics to try to skew the vote in their favor.
As Donald Trump’s popularity continues to drop, it is crucial for him and his administration to retain a majority in Congress or they could face investigations and even impeachment.
In this video explainer, Guardian political reporter Shrai Popat looks at the ways the Republicans have tried and are still trying to influence the election.
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Updated at 12.18 EDT
Mark Kelly on possible 2028 run: ‘I’m considering it’
Shrai Popat
in Brunswick, Maine
While stumping on behalf of Troy Jackson, the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Maine, Senator Mark Kelly teased a possible run for president in 2028.
“I’m considering it,” the Democratic lawmaker for Arizona said at a campaign event for Maine veterans in Brunswick. “I’ll make a decision after this election sometime.”
Kelly noted the weight of the decision. “You know, I’ve always served this country … usually in the cockpit, strapped into the rocket ship,” he said. “By far, the most important job I’ve ever had is the one I have now,” he said referring to his first full-term as US senator.
“If I screw it up in the rocket ship, it just gets blown up. People get over it in a week. This is different. I mean, this is 350 million people, and people around the world. It’s important that the United States maintains its position of leadership in the world,” Kelly added.
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Updated at 13.44 EDT