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Monsoon likely to arrive in Kerala three days behind schedule around Jun 4: IMD

Monsoon likely to arrive in Kerala three days behind schedule around Jun 4: IMD

The monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala around June 4, three days behind schedule, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday. On May 15, the IMD forecast that the monsoon was likely to set in over Kerala on May 26, with a model error of ± four days.

On May 15, the IMD forecast that the monsoon was likely to arrive in Kerala on May 26, with a model error of ± four days. (PTI)

The monsoon advances northwards from Kerala, usually in surges, covering the entire country around July 15. It marks the transition from scorching temperatures. According to the agriculture ministry, 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed, making the monsoon critical. With 47% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a bountiful monsoon is related to a healthy rural economy.

Conditions are favourable for further advance of south-west monsoon into some more parts of south-west and south-east Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, some more parts of south-west, west-central, east-central, and north-east Bay of Bengal, and remaining parts of south-east Bay of Bengal around June 4, the IMD said on Tuesday.

The IMD said isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall (7-20 cm) is very likely in Kerala over the next six to seven days. Isolated heavy rainfall was expected in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka during the same period. Moderate to severe thunderstorm activity with squally wind speeds of up to 40-50 kmph is likely in parts of north-west, central, east India, and south Peninsular India during the week.

The IMD’s extended range forecast shows largely dry conditions over Kerala between May 28 and June 4. A very marginal improvement was expected from June 4 to June 11.

A typhoon developing over the West Pacific, seen pulling significant moisture away from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and a cyclonic circulation over the Lakshadweep region, were the likely factors delaying or causing a weak monsoon onset in Kerala.

Last week, the IMD revised its seasonal rainfall forecast downward— from 92% of the long-period average (LPA) issued in ril to 90% — and attached a 60% probability to a deficient season, meaning there is a better-than-even chance that total rainfall falling below the threshold that even qualifies as below-normal.

The LPA for the June-to-September season, calculated over the 1971-2020 period, is 87cm. If the prediction bears out, this would mark the lowest monsoon season rainfall in 11 years.

Fuelled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months, the World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday.

A new WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. There is a 90% probability that it will continue until November. Most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate and possibly strong. In India, an El Niño is associated with a harsher summer and a weaker monsoon.

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Celebration, shock and scepticism follow Colombias presidential election

Celebration, shock and scepticism follow Colombias presidential election

Less than two hours after polling stations closed on Sunday, it was clear that Colombia’s presidential race would be settled in a run-off between two finalists: hard-right political outsider Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist Senator Ivan Cepeda.

Though the overall result surprised few, de la Espriella’s strong showing upended pollsters’ predictions.

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Cepeda, President Gustavo Petro’schosen successor, had been expected to win the most votes, based on public opinion surveys.

But instead, de la Espriella came in first place, winning 43.74 percent of the vote. Cepeda trailed with 40.90 percent.

Supporters of de la Espriella, a criminal defence lawyer, held rturous celebrations in the coastal city of Barranquilla, where the candidate has an office.

Colombia won, and with more than 10 million votes, democracy won, said Elsa Suarez, a de la Espriella voter living in Bogota.

The far-right candidate has modelled himself after politicians like Donald Trump in the United States and Javier Milei in Argentina, flamboyant media personalities who won the presidency despite having little to no political experience.

Like them, de la Espriella has pledged a return to law and order, as well as a pared-back national government and policies to support traditional family values.

Notably, he promises to use an iron fist to stamp out crime and build megrisons to jail criminals, mimicking the policies of Salvadoran strongman Nayib Bukele.

Analysts say de la Espriella’s populist messaging resonated with voters in Colombia’s interior, where urban crime is a growing concern.

Electoral ms show de la Espriella besting Cepeda in 16 of the country’s 32 departments, primarily in the heart of Colombia and along the border with Venezuela.

In more central areas and closer to the citals, people prioritise security, explained Laura Bonilla, the deputy director at the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation (PARES), a Bogota-based research nonprofit.

By contrast, de la Espriella’s security messaging failed to sway voters along the coast and in border areas afflicted by rebel violence.

Bonilla argues that people in these regions instead place greater value on the socioeconomic issues that Cepeda represents, as the continuity candidate for Petro’s Historic Pact party.

Over the past four years, they have received constant attention from the government, said Bonilla, citing state development projects under the Petro administration.

Colombian presidential candidate Ivan Cepeda of the Historic Pact party holds a news conference in Bogota, Colombia, on June 1 [Enea Lebrun/]

A blow to the conservative establishment

De la Espriella’s success also highlights growing anti-establishment sentiment in Colombia, according to experts.

The lawyer, who has never run for public office before, comfortably beat his main rival on the right, Senator Paloma Valencia, who was backed by former President Alvaro Uribe, the figurehead of Colombian conservatism.

Initially, Sunday’s election was predicted to be a close race between Valencia and de la Espriella, both of whom lagged behind Cepeda in the polls.

But as Sunday’s ballots were tallied, Valencia flopped with less than 7 percent of the vote.

Miguel Silva, a Colombian political consultant, credited some of de la Espriella’s success to his campaign messaging.

De la Espriella, he explained, used his campaign to draw a distinction between the haves and the have-nots, those who have benefitted from the government and those who feel ignored.

He [succeeded] by portraying himself and the people he represents as ‘Los Nunca’ and by portraying Paloma and her followers as ‘Los Siempre’, Silva said, using the Spanish words for The Nevers and The Always.

Pollsters predicted the right would be divided in the first round, paving the way for Cepeda to win the most votes, but de la Espriella ctured millions of votes from traditional conservatives, marking a shift in Colombia’s political landsce.

In Bogota, the only province in the country’s interior to vote for Cepeda, the left-wing candidate’s supporters were shocked by Sunday’s results.

Everyone is a little surprised, said Juan Camilo Rodriguez, who voted for Cepeda. These results don’t match the polls.

Newspers at a Bogota newsstand show the results of the first round of Colombia’s presidential election on June 1 [Enea Lebrun/]

Petro himself had hammered his base to flood the polls, warning that the left’s chances of success could be hampered by electoral fraud.

The outgoing president rejected last night’s results, which were based on the pre-conteo, or preliminary count, a non-legally binding process.

Instead, Petro called on the public to wait for the official, scrutinised count, which will be released in the coming days.

Cepeda echoed the president’s scepticism in a speech on Sunday night. Only once the vote-counting committees have fully, clearly, and thoroughly clarified this matter, will we comment on tonight’s results, he told supporters.

But the candidate peared to mellow his stance this morning, acknowledging that there was no evidence of irregularities in the vote. He trailed de la Espriella by more than 670,000 votes.

Experts warn that Cepeda is losing precious time by focusing on fraud allegations and should instead concentrate on swaying moderate voters.

By crying fraud so early, it’s hard to bring more voters to the table, said Silva.

A second round of voting, between Cepeda and de la Espriella, is scheduled for June 21.

Up for grabs are more than a million votes for centrist candidate Sergio Fajardo and 1.6 million for Paloma Valencia. While Valencia endorsed de la Espriella, her running mate, moderate politician Juan Daniel Oviedo, did not.

Miguel Jaramillo Lujan, a Colombian political strategist, said the final two candidates must tread carefully in the next three weeks to prevail.

As the saying goes, whoever makes fewer mistakes will be the winner.

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Politics

CBSE misses June 1 deadline to relaunch Class 12 verification and re-evaluation portal

CBSE misses June 1 deadline to relaunch Class 12 verification and re-evaluation portal

The Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) on Monday failed to make its Class 12 verification and re-evaluation portal operational, despite announcing earlier that the service would reopen that day. The delay left thousands of students awaiting an opportunity to challenge their marks and ply for the re-evaluation of answer scripts. Track live updates