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UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia

By now, readers have a clear understanding that the Gulf-driven energy shock is on course to collide with a potential super El Niño weather event, creating what could be a dangerous second-order shock to food supply chains around the world.
The concern is that extreme heat and disrupted rainfall patterns could hit top agricultural growing belts, dent harvest output, and amplify existing supply stress. Even before those weather-driven impacts fully materialize, global food prices are already rising, suggesting that fertilizer and elevated diesel prices are beginning to be transmitted through the broader food supply chain.
Our Tuesday note on Thailand white rice, a regional Asian benchmark, surging 20% in May, the largest monthly increase in data going back to 2008, is another warning signal that the price action in the grain feeding half the world has entered a new upward impulse.
The troubling move in rice prices, including a 15% surge in Chicago rice futures last month, indicates that food-inflation pressures are already materializing. The concern is that these pressures could materially worsen once El Niño-driven weather disruptions begin affecting key growing regions.
UBS analysts led by Leigha Miyata published a note titled “Food Inflation & El Niño Evidence Check,” confirming what we have been for months: the Middle East-driven fertilizer shock is now moving through the global food supply chain just as El Niño risks rise, creating the potential for an inflation surge across Asia later this year into 2027.
Miyata noted that El Niño odds currently stand around 82% for May to June and 96% for December into early 2027, raising the risk of hotter, drier conditions across South and Southeast Asia that could pressure harvests.
Via Miyata …
El Niño likelihood raised to 82%; expect Asia to be hotter and have less rain:
The El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in Dec 2026-Feb 2027, NOAA). Historical patterns show higher temperatures in Indonesia and northern Australia (Figure 1). Temperatures are normally lower in South Korea and Jan, though a “super El Niño” could reverse this, bringing intense heat and rainfall. Precipitation is lower in South and Southeast Asia, posing risks to harvests (Figure 2). Other El Niño impacts include higher power demand, lower supply, and increased disease risk (see p3).
Fertilizer Prices – Urea prices correcting, now +23% since the Iran conflict started:
Though nitrogen supply remains tight, we have seen diverging trends in the last few weeks on the product level. Ammonia pricing has been stable to higher, UAN pricing has been stable, while urea pricing has seen downward corrections, $190/MT (23%) lower than its peak level in ril. Overall the UBS chemicals team see this pointing to the market having moved past peak seasonal tightness, with 2Q likely marking the high point. We believe structurally tight supply from restricted trade flows and constrained production will continue to support the pricing outlook for 2H26/2027 above the cost curve however, and note that physical market flows have yet to improve (full report).
Gov’t measures have been helpful, but inflation is rising across Asia:
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.7 points in ril 2026, up 1.6% from March, marking a third consecutive rise but at a slower pace. Gains in vegetable oils, meat, and cereals were partly offset by declines in sugar and dairy. The index was 2.0% higher year-on-year but remained 18.4% below its March 2022 peak. Inflation across all major Asian economies is increasing with the exception of Indonesia and Jan, and corn futures for 2026/2027 are up 4%/5% since the Iran conflict started. UBS economists explain that inflation was likely lower in many Asian economies due to quick policy-action post Iran conflict, but that inflation will likely rise going forward (full report). In the Philippines, the level of inflation has shot up from 2.3%/3.9% in Feb/Mar to 7.1% in r. In Thailand, deflation in Feb/Mar has shifted to 2.9% inflation in ril (Figure 5). For Jan, there are no clear signs yet of strong inflationary pressure from Middle East tensions. However, we expect national CPI for May to pick up slightly to 1.5% from 1.4% in ril, suggesting ril was likely the trough. Food inflation in Jan decelerated from 4.6% YoY in ril to 4.1% YoY in May, though on a MoM basis, food inflation rose 0.3% (full report).
Packaging and freight costs are up; El Niño in 2026-27, fertilizer impact in 2027:
Plastic packaging prices in Jan are reported to be up 20 to 30%. This together with transport costs are expected to raise food prices, but this is not yet visible in the data for Jan. If El Niño materializes, we may see drought impact the harvests in Sep 2026- and r 2027- in South and Southeast Asia. Higher fertilizer costs may also affect harvests from ril 2027 onwards.
UBS views on El Niño impacts
1. Agri-business: Tightening global balances and large speculative shorts mean an El Niño-driven disruption to India’s monsoon could reduce sugar production by 3–8mn tons YoY and trigger price spikes.
2. Agriculture & Inflation (India): El Niño-driven weak monsoon risks (forecast 92% of normal rainfall) could lift food inflation, though only 21% of CPI is directly impacted, limiting first-round effects but raising second-round risks if shocks persist.
3. Health Care (Brazil): El Niño-driven changes in mosquito patterns could increase dengue cases, with prior events (2023/24) coinciding with record infections (6.6mn cases).
4. Thermal coal / Power demand: A potential “super El Niño” could drive extreme heat across Asia, boosting electricity demand (especially for cooling) and increasing coal demand and imports, tightening seaborne markets.
5. Hydropower / Power supply: El Niño-related rainfall shifts could reduce hydro generation in LatAm and Africa, further supporting demand for thermal coal.
6. Insurance / Reinsurance: El Niño conditions are associated with below-average hurricane activity, which could improve insurers’ near-term book value but pressure pricing due to increased cital supply. In Australia, El Niño years tend to have lower catastrophe losses, though drought and bushfire risks rise.
Figure 6: Real GDP growth %y/y: pre- and post-Iran conflict
Figure 7: Asia’s inflation likely to pick up on base effects
Figure 12: Energy/fertilizer shock impact chain
Figure 13: Thailand and India are likely to be negatively impacted in AC. All importers, including Jan will face higher prices
Related:
We Are 6 Months From Global Food Shortages Because Farmers Are Facing A Quadruple Whammy Crisis
Everyone Talks About The Cost Of Gasoline… Soon Everyone Will Be Talking About The Cost Of Food
Last month, ZeroHedge Debates held a roundtable to ask, “How bad will the food inflation mess get?”

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Missing Sherpa found crawling on Everest a week after disappearing

A Sherpa guide whose family had already begun funeral rituals after he vanished on Mount Everest was found alive and crawling toward base camp nearly a week later, surviving alone on the world’s highest peak without food, water or supplemental oxygen in what rescuers called “nothing short of a miracle.”
Dawa Sherpa, 52, dispeared around May 29 while descending Everest after turning back short of the summit with a Polish climber he was guiding. The client made it safely to base camp, but Dawa had not, triggering fears that he had died on the mountain.
A cleanup crew from the Sagarmatha Pollution Control Committee found him Thursday morning crawling through the treacherous Khumbu Icefall, one of the most dangerous sections of Everest, just above base camp, Pemba Sherpa of 8K Expeditions told The Associated Press.
Rescuers carried him to safety, gave him food and water, and flew him by helicopter to a hospital in Kathmandu, where his wife and daughter were waiting.
LONE SURVIVOR RESCUED AFTER FATAL FALL KILLS THREE CLIMBERS ON MOUNT MCKINLEY
By that point, his family had already lost hope.
“When we first heard about it (the rescue), we could not be sure if that person was indeed our father,” she said. “So to be certain we asked for photos to be sent and then only we were sure and very hpy.”
His wife, Damu Sherpa, added that the family learned he was alive through local news reports and phone calls from friends.
“We first heard that he was still alive on the local news and from a person we know who called with the news that … he is being brought down,” she said.
RESCUERS FREE CLIMBER TRPED BENEATH 16,000-POUND BOULDER ON OREGON’S MOUNT HOOD IN COMPLEX OPERATION
Dawa was still wearing his climbing jacket when rescuers found him. His family said he is being treated for frostbite and other complications but is conscious and able to speak.
“He recognized me … is good and speaks,” his daughter told . “We are hpy.”
The Nepal Mount Everest hiking company called his survival extraordinary.
“Dawa survived alone for nearly a week without food, water, or supplemental oxygen navigating the treacherous Khumbu Icefall (even after the fixed ladders were removed for the season),” the company said in a social media post. “This is nothing short of a miracle.”
It was unclear how Dawa became separated from his client during the descent or why there was a delay in launching a search team when he went missing last week. Helicopters were eventually dispatched but failed to locate him.
His rescue came at the end of a record-breaking Everest climbing season. More than 1,000 climbers and guides reached the summit this year after Nepal issued a record 494 permits.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS P
Officials have said five climbers and guides died on Everest during the season, according to .

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Are IKEA meatballs really that good? We visited to find out (Syracuse food review)

Syracuse, N.Y. — You’ve heard about IKEA’s Swedish meatballs.
After the furniture store opened its new home in Destiny USA, the meatballs finally made their way to Syracuse. So we had to test them out to see if they live up to their hype.
A friend and I made it our mission to test out the entire menu at the Swedish bistro inside IKEA. The store — and the dining area — were particularly quiet on a Thursday afternoon.
The dining space had multiple sections, all in the chain’s iconic simplistic, clean design.
A variety of circular tables, high tops and soft seating spanned the space between the entrances to both the mall and the exterior.
Multiple kiosks sit off to the left of the counter, where customers use a touch screen to order their items.
Ordering everything on the menu wasn’t hard, as we could count the number of items on two hands.
We could tell when the kitchen got the order, because we heard one of the kitchen staff quietly exclaim, Oh, that’s a big order. parently they aren’t used to people ordering more than an item or two.
We started with the Swedish meatballs.
Served with mashed potatoes and lingonberry jam, the meal is the most expensive item on the menu.
The meatball meal is $8.49 for eight pieces, $9.99 for 12 pieces, or $11.49 for 16 pieces. (You can also order extra meatballs — an order of 4 is $1.50.)
Many people have raved about IKEA’s Swedish meatballs for years, but this was my first time trying them. I wasn’t sure how they would stack up. But, I have to admit that they were surprisingly good.
The sweetness of the jam paired well with the umami of the meat and saltiness of the gravy without straying too far in one direction.
The potatoes were … potatoes. Nothing fancy, just a nice way to round out a meal. The eight-piece size was enough to sate my petite without getting overly full.
I was also pleased to see plant-based meatballs as a vegetarian option on the menu — and at 50 cents cheer.
Like the beef-and-pork alternative, the plantballs come with mashed potatoes and lingonberry jam. Honestly, the difference in taste was barely noticeable. The meat ones had a slightly greasier texture and were lighter in color.
Of the two, I was surprised to find I enjoyed the plantballs just a little more than the original meatballs.
Onto the other options, because it’s not just about the meatballs at IKEA. They also have an absurdly che hot dog. And when I say che, that’s both in cost and quality.
The hot dog was just an average hot dog, but a bargain at $1. The dry bun was the real downfall, as it seemed it had been sitting out all day.
If you’re looking for better che hot dogs, head to dollar Thursdays at the Syracuse Mets stadium and get $2 Hofmann hot dogs.
Again, there was a vegetarian option, and again it was cheer at 95 cents. This time I opted for both of the available toppings, fried onions and pickled cabbage, at 25 cents each.
They added a nice crunch to the otherwise soft-textured vegetable hot dog. But overall it wasn’t anything special.
The rest of the menu featured dessert options. Of the five options, we ordered three, skipping the frozen yogurt and cinnamon roll.
First up was the Gooey Cake ($1.50). The small, triangular dessert resembled a pale brownie, but with a gooey center that was something between caramel and fudge. It was average, but my friend did prefer the gooey cake the best out of the three.
We both agreed the cream cake ($2.29) was not very good. The small, circular cake was topped with a dome of marzipan cream and covered with a cloying sweet pink frosting and chocolate drizzle. You’ll feel like you need to brush your teeth immediately to get the sugar off.
My favorite of the three desserts was also the most expensive at $4.49. The chocolate cake had two dense, slightly dry layers. But the thick cream filling and fudgy frosting paired nicely with it.
Still, there are plenty of great bakeries in Syracuse where you can find much better cakes.
Instead of ordering the cinnamon roll at the bistro, I bought a six-pack to bring home ($8). I later regretted the decision because the cinnamon rolls were … not great.
Even after warming them in the microwave, they were dry, the dough was tough, and there wasn’t enough filling.
Overall there were a few things about IKEA’s bistro that stood out. In addition to the space feeling welcoming and airy, there is a family station providing a microwave, cutlery and disposable bibs for children.
Additionally, right next to the bistro is the food section of the store, where guests can buy almost everything they serve at the bistro.
Yes, you can get the frozen meatballs (huvudroll), savory sauce, mashed potatoes, lingonberry jam (sylt lingon), and even the gooey cake (kafferep) to take home.
So, did IKEA’s Swedish meatballs live up to their hype? Yes, 100%.
But really, just the meatballs. The rest of the menu just isn’t it.
The Details
The Store: IKEA, inside Destiny USA, 306 Hiawatha Blvd. W., first floor, Syracuse
Reservations? Ha.
Dress: Casual. But I dare you to dress up.
Accessibility: IKEA is located on the main level of Destiny USA and has a spacious dining area that provides adequate room for accessibility.
Credit cards? Required.
Parking: Large mall parking lot.
Noise level: Quiet. Most people are focused on shopping.
Special diets? Vegetarian options available.
Hours: Sunday 10 a.m. to 6 p.m., Monday-Thursday 11 a.m. to 8 p.m., Friday-Saturday 11 a.m. to 1 a.m.

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NJ food guide for MetLife Stadium World Cup 2026 matches

North Jersey being as diverse as it is, we could probably find a restaurant for all the 48 countries participating in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Throw in New York City, and it’s a guarantee.
While it might be a fun culinary endeavor to try to eat foods from every country participating, there’s a much more manageable option closer to home: MetLife will host five group stage matches featuring nine countries. MetLife will also host one Round of 32 and Round of 16 match each, and the World Cup Final on July 19, but we won’t know who’s in those games until later.
But the teams guaranteed to play at MetLife this summer represent countries with varied cuisines from around the globe, and you can taste them all here in North Jersey and New York City. From Brazilian rodizio to English pasties, German beer and West African peanut stew, you can taste a world of flavors.
Now if all this sounds like too much work but you want to taste the World Cup anyway, Lay’s has 40 globally inspired potato chip flavors launching in May. It’s an option, but plates of steak frites, weinerschnitzel and ceviche from local restaurants would be my choice.
Brazil vs Morocco, June 13
Before or after this match, you’d do well to visit the Ironbound neighborhood in Newark, which is teeming with Brazilian and Portuguese restaurants. For Brazilian fare, head to Brasilia Grill, which offers all-you-can-eat rodizio service and a la carte options like beef Milanese, grilled chicken with passion fruit, paella and more.
Churrascaria Brazeiro, with three locations in North Jersey, serves wood-fired meats rodizio-style as well, with an award-winning wine program and bar offerings centered around Brazilian cachaça. Samba in Montclair, meanwhile, serves homestyle Brazilian fare in a rustic, casual setting. Dishes include a variety of salgandinhos (filled fried pastries), seafood, beef and chicken entrees, and on the weekends, feijoada, Brazil’s national dish.
We’ve got at least two good options in New Jersey for Moroccan cuisine. Marakesh Restaurant in Parsippany is, first and foremost, a treat for the eyes: its interior is a reproduced palace with authentic architecture, carvings, tiles, paintings and crafts. But the food meets the moment; we’re talking kebabs, hummus, tagine, shawarma and more.
Oasis Restaurant in Cranford also has a large menu of tagine, kebab, shawarma, soups, starters and more. Don’t miss out on drinks like Turkish coffee, Moroccan tea and avocado shakes.
France vs Senegal, June 16
We’re fortunate in North Jersey to have options when it comes to French cuisine, from fine dining to casual bistro bites. Faubourg in Montclair and Weehawken straddles both worlds with bar, lunch and dinner menus served in a modern interior. Expect exceptional executions of traditional French dishes like tarte flambee, coq au vin, steak frites and more.
Lorena’s in Mlewood is another gem, serving chicken paillard, escargots, honey-glazed duck, seafood and more; their two- and three-course prix-fixe meals are a good entry point. And Brasserie Mémère in Closter is pitch-perfect, with something for everyone on the menu: duck cassoulet, mussels and snails, savory tarts, steak frites and desserts like pot de creme and kouign amman.
Senegal’s official language is French, but the culture and cuisine diverges; taste the difference in New Jersey. At Touba Restaurant in Irvington, get the Senegalese national dish, thiep (fish, jollof rice, and vegetables cooked in a rich tomato sauce), neems (crispy spring rolls), akara (bean fritters) and more.
At Mawo’s Kitchen in Jersey City, get the traditional fish and jollof rice, served with carrots, yuca, cabbage and eggplant, or order some shawarmas, pastél (fried pastries filled with fish) and wash it down with sorrel, ginger or baobab juice.
Norway vs Senegal, June 22
While you can visit the Senegalese options above, Norway’s a bit trickier. For Norwegian fare, plan to head into the city.
At Nordic Preserves Fish & Wildlife Company on the Lower East Side of Manhattan, you can order a sample board with four kinds of herring, or opt for beet salad, potato pancakes or gravlax. At Björk Cafe and Bistro in Midtown Manhattan, choose from a Scandinavian menu of fish, potato waffles, sausages, soups and more. Try the räckmacka, which is whole wheat bread topped with mixed greens, egg, lemon, dill, mayo and Nordic coldwater shrimp.
Ecuador vs Germany, June 25
These two very different cuisines would be fun to sample in one day, and you can do that here.
For German food, start with Black Forest Inn in Stanhope, a family-owned rustic spot serving traditional dishes for close to 50 years. You can’t go wrong with sausage, from weisswurst to currywurst, or the wienerschnitzel, either veal or pork. But dig deeper into the menu for some exceptional dishes like jagerschnitzel (with a wild mushroom cream sauce), roast pork shank with caraway jus, or a traditional sauerbraten or rouladen.
For a festive environment, check out Zeppelin Hall in Jersey City, a proper beer garden with German bites and plenty of beer. And if you want to explore top-notch German food further, Heidelberg Restaurant on the Upper East Side and Zum Stammtisch in Queens are unbeatable.
For Ecuadorian food, head to Garcia’s Restaurant in Union City for breakfast, lunch or dinner. Get sancocho de pescado (fish soup), chaulafan (a fried rice dish), bolon mixto (plantains with chicharron and cheese), and more. Latitude Zero in Bayonne has conch ceviche, bolones (fried green plantain with meat and cheese), and more Ecuadorian stles, and La Roca in Elizabeth has dishes like seco de chivo (goat stew with yellow rice and sweet plantains), yingacho (potato patties over peanut butter sauce with steak, sausage, eggs and plantains), chaulafan and more.
Panama vs England, June 27
Enjoy a pie and pint when England hits MetLife in late June. For a great pie, head to The Pie Store in Upper Montclair. Their savory pies are phenomenal; choose from options like cheese, potato and onion; shepherd’s pie; steak, ale and mushroom and more. Their sweet pies are worth checking out too; the coconut custard and banoffee pies are undeniable.
Or, grab another traditional football snack with a pasty from Rocky’s Pasties in Wharton. For over a century, Rocky’s has been putting out fresh-made Cornish-style pasties with traditional fillings like beef, potato and onion. And for more of a pub vibe (but with some seriously good eats), check out Muddy Waters Gastropub in Asbury.
For a variety of reasons, Panamanian food is few and far between in New Jersey and New York City. But if you can get to Pana’s Kitchen in Brooklyn, you’ll get a taste of this unique cuisine.
There, you’ll get stew chicken, mondongo stew, tamales, carimanola (fried yuca stuffed with meat), hojaldre (fried dough, often topped with meat) and more.

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Sherpa rescued after going missing on Everest with no food, oxygen

KATHMANDU, June 4 () – A Nepali Sherpa guide has been rescued from Everest after surviving about a week on the ​slopes of the world’s highest mountain without food or ‌oxygen in a rare case of survival in such conditions, a hiking official said on Thursday.
Dawa Sherpa, 52, was returning with a Polish climber ​after failing to reach the 8,849 m (29,032 ft) summit, ​when he went missing between Camp III and Camp ⁠IV.
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He was last seen on May 29. His client ​returned to base camp, but it was not clear how they ​got separated.
They were among the last climbers on Everest this season, which ended last month.
Lama Kazi Sherpa, of the Sagarmatha Pollution Control Committee, said ​his team located Dawa above base camp near the Khumbu ​Icefall and brought him down to safety. His team was cleaning up after ‌the ⁠season ended.
Dawa, still in a climbing jacket, was rushed from the helipad to hospital on a trolley.
Dawa’s family said he was doing well and undergoing treatment for frostbite and other complications.
He ​recognised me … is ​good and ⁠speaks, said Mhendo Lhamo Sherpa, the guide’s daughter. We are hpy.
The Himalayan Times said for seven days ​the guide had no food, no bottled oxygen, no ​rescue team.
A ⁠record number of more than 1,000 climbers and their guides scaled Everest this season, with the government issuing 494 permits.
Many climbers ⁠were ​stranded at base camp after a towering ​block of glacial ice delayed the opening of the route to the world’s ​tallest peak in ril.

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This week’s Knoxville grocery deals include buy-one-get-one offers

The worst part of a grocery run is watching the total cost run up with every beep of the scanner, but weekly deals from Knoxville grocery stores aim to make shopping a bit more manageable.
While Knox News is hitting stores to document food prices and how they’re changing week-to-week − and comparing store brands to name brands along the way − we’re also combing through weekly ads to find the hottest deals.
We’re highlighting savings at Kroger, Food City and Publix, as well as Walmart, which doesn’t publish a traditional weekly ads brochure and focuses more on everyday low prices.
Get ready to shop smarter, not harder, with these weekly grocery deals.
Weekly grocery offers typically run Wednesday-Tuesday.
Kroger goes in with digital deals
Kroger is encouraging shoppers to clip digital coupons this week.
Red, green or black seedless gres are $1.99 per pound with a digital coupon, compared to $2.79 per pound without the coupon. Oscar Mayer bacon is $3.99, compared to $6.49. Thirty-two ounce Kroger cheese varieties will be $4.99 ($6.99), and Kroger ice cream is $1.99 ($2.99).
And the deals don’t end there. Barilla pasta varieties are going for 99 cents with a digital coupon, and shoppers can grab Freschetta pizzas for $3.99 each. Fresh-baked muffins are $3.99, while Frito-Lay multipacks are $7.99 this week.
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Food City is celebrating National Dairy Month with these deals
Food City has started its monthlong deal on select “udderly delicious” dairy products in honor of National Dairy Month, which is celebrated each June.
Land O Lakes spreadable butter is two for $4 starting June 3 − and that includes its speciality cinnamon sugar butter. Galbani cheese shakers and ricotta cheese are two for $6, while select varieties of Tillamook shredded or sliced cheese are $3.69 each.
The dairy deals don’t end there. Food Club sliced cheese is $3.99 for a twin pack, and Cabot chunk cheese is $2.99 for an 8-ounce block. Food Club cream cheese is $1.99 and lactose free milk is $3.99 for a half-gallon carton.
Food City’s weekend dinner deal this week is focused on fajitas. Get one beef or chicken fajita mix, a Food Club tortilla pack, Crav’n Flavor tortilla chips and salsa and a Knorr side for just $12.99. And don’t forget dessert! Fresh-baked brownies are $5.50.
Publix is ‘doubling the fun’ with this week’s deals
Publix in its weekly ad is going all-in with buy-one-get-one deals on dozens of food and household products.
Pizza night just got doubled: all the essentials you need are buy-one-get-one starting June 3. Shoppers can get Publix shredded cheese, La Famiglia Delgrosso sauce varieties, Golden Home pizza crust and Armour pepperoni with savings upwards of $4 on each product.
Two pound bags of honeycrisp ples are buy-one-get-one free, along with lychee fruit, baby seedless cucumbers and Green/Wise organic white mushrooms.
More pantry essentials are on BOGO starting June 3. General Mills cereals, Pearl Milling Company syrup and Bertolli sauces are some of the biggest deals heading into the weekend. And Publix iced teas and lemonade are all BOGO − with shoppers saving nearly $4 on each 1-gallon bottle.
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Walmart ‘rollback’ deals of the week
Because Walmart focuses more on everyday low prices, we set our store to the Walbrook Drive Supercenter location and browsed through the “rollbacks” section of the store’s webpage highlighting specific products and deals:
Premier Protein indulgence protein shakes: $8.58 (four pack)
Great Value freedom ice pops: $1.97 (12 pack)
Chicken drumsticks: $4.92 (5 pounds)
Vlasic dill relish: $1.72 (10 ounces)
Oscar Mayer chili cheese stuffed dogs: $3.77 (eight pack)

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