Business
Vietnam’s economy is one of the fastest-growing in the world. Can it make the leap into the ranks of middle-income countries?

It’s not the only indicator of change on Vietnam’s city streets. Fancy Western-style coffee shops, luxury hotels, and high-end consumer brands dot Ho Chi Minh City, even as many Vietnamese continue to eat their lunch on plastic stools in hole-in-the-wall eateries right next door.
It’s the kind of vibe that’s only found in a country that’s growing—and growing quickly. And it’s not just the consumer economy. Manufacturing, real estate, infrastructure, and tourism are all expanding. “You license a project in six months, you build it in 12,” says Michael Piro, co-CEO of Indochina Capital and an investor in industrial real estate. “It’s so easy. I’ve never seen, in my 20-year career, an opportunity like this.”
Vietnam’s economy grew by 8% last year, almost double the rate recorded across the rest of Southeast Asia. (Malaysia, at 5%, was in second place.) With a GDP of $527 billion, Vietnam’s economy has already overtaken Malaysia and the Philippines, and is quickly catching up to Thailand. The VN-Index, the country’s benchmark stock index, has climbed more than 35% over the past 12 months. And this September, FTSE Russell will upgrade Vietnam to secondary emerging-market status, which could unlock billions of dollars in passive fund flows.
It has also, for now, stabilized its relationship with the U.S., its most important customer. In October, Vietnam secured an agreement from Washington that set U.S. tariffs at 20%, far below the 46% originally threatened on “Liberation Day” in April 2025 and roughly in line with rates imposed on other ASEAN economies. Over $190 billion worth of Vietnamese goods are bound for U.S. customers every year.
“Vietnam has done quite a lot of things right, no matter how you look at it,” says Alberto Vettoretti, a top ASEAN executive for Ascentium, an Asian business services firm that helps companies enter Vietnam.
Yet Hanoi isn’t content to rest on its laurels. The government wants Vietnam to grow by 10% annually by 2030, and reach high-income status by 2045, a feat that would require a near tripling of the country’s per capita gross national income from around $4,500 to $14,000. Only a handful of countries have pulled that off—and just one other country, China, has successfully changed from being a centrally planned economy to a manufacturing and consumption powerhouse.
Can Vietnam copy China’s playbook? It has a stable government that’s laser-focused on economic development; an export-oriented manufacturing sector that’s climbing up the value chain; a diplomatic strategy that’s friendly with Washington, Beijing, and Moscow at the same time; and a fast-growing middle class.
But on the ground, executives and investors who know the country best are asking harder questions about Hanoi’s ambitions. Can Vietnam get enough capital for the economy it wants? Does it have enough workers and human capital? And does it have enough time?
“We want to achieve the government’s target,” says Nguyen Thu Hang, CEO of Vinhomes, Vingroup’s real estate business. “But the most challenging thing isn’t just the short term, but whether we can achieve this high-growth rate and make it more sustainable.”
After reunification in 1976, the Vietnamese Communist Party tried to build a centrally planned economy, with nationalized enterprises, collective agriculture, and fixed prices. A decade later, things were coming undone, with hyperinflation and declining foreign aid from the Soviet Union forcing a change.
In 1986, General Secretary Nguyen Van Linh launched Doi Moi, or “renovation,” which was a sweeping package of reforms that allowed foreign investment, private ownership, and a new stock market. Vietnam also rebuilt ties with former enemies like China and the U.S., the latter of which lifted its trade embargo in 1994.
Still, things were difficult in those early days. “The private sector wasn’t really investable at that point,” remembers Chris Freund, founder of Mekong Capital. “The people you partnered with had no personal stake in the long-term success of the business. They didn’t receive bonuses based on the company’s value, and all they could get is how much they could siphon out.”
The pivot came in the mid-2000s, right as Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization. When Piro arrived in 2006, “there was a pervasive sense of optimism around the WTO and what it was going to mean for Vietnam. Back then, the whole market was in its infancy; people would say, ‘Wow, this restaurant has air conditioning, let’s go there.’ ”
Things are “much more mature” now, Piro adds. “Vietnamese are proud to be Vietnamese. They’re not looking to bring whatever is big in the U.S. or Europe.”
Over the past two decades, millions of Vietnamese have climbed out of poverty, underpinning robust domestic growth in retail, e-commerce, health care, and travel. “For retail—anything selling to Vietnamese consumers—this year is the best in a long time,” says Freund, whose Mekong Capital has made close to 50 investments in Vietnamese consumer businesses. Vietnam’s retail sales grew 12.1% year on year between January and April 2026.
More important, this growth hasn’t generated extreme inequality. Vietnam’s Gini coefficient stands at 0.37, roughly equal to Singapore and Indonesia, and below the Philippines and Malaysia. Nor does Vietnam have the corporate concentration seen in other Southeast Asian countries, in part owing to its much shorter history as a market economy. “In countries like Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, you tend to see large family groups or conglomerates—often over 100 years old—that control a lot more of the economy,” Freund says. “You don’t really have that here.”
Vietnam’s GDP per capita is still below the world average, sitting around the level of other emerging markets like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Morocco.
There’s still a divide between northern and southern Vietnam. Vietnam’s electronics manufacturing is clustered in the north, close to the border with China: Components from Chinese suppliers cross over for final assembly in a Vietnamese factory, then are shipped to markets like the U.S. The south, in contrast, has more light manufacturing and agriculture, as well as the country’s commercial and financial hub, Ho Chi Minh City.
Vietnam is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the “China plus one” trend, where manufacturers moved parts of their supply chain outside of China, whether to avoid U.S. tariffs or to add some resilience to their operations. Foreign companies like Samsung, Apple, and Nintendo have invested billions of dollars into Vietnamese factories, making laptops, TVs, headphones, and video game consoles for world markets. Vettoretti points out that 80% of Vietnam’s exports come from foreign direct investment.
Still, people on the ground caution against reading too much into Vietnam’s manufacturing boom.
“Much of it isn’t creating wealth for Vietnamese people,” Piro says. “It’s foreign-owned businesses conducting foreign business, so it’s not the core engine of what’s driving wealth for ordinary Vietnamese.”
Also, many of the factories making products for these global brands are backed by Chinese money. “If you look at the numbers and new projects, Chinese investors—including those from Hong Kong, mainland China, and perhaps Taiwan—are number one in terms of project volume,” Vettoretti explains.
Piro estimates that at Indochina Capital’s industrial parks, around 70% of the tenants are mainland Chinese manufacturers and another 20% are Taiwanese.
More recent optimism about Vietnam has focused on a new set of reforms by the country’s government. The most consequential is Resolution 68, which elevates the private sector as “the most important driving force of the national economy” (as opposed to just being merely “important”). The resolution also honors entrepreneurs as “new warriors on the economic front”; sets a target of doubling the number of private enterprises to 2 million by 2030; and calls for the creation of 20 large, globally competitive private companies, similar to the chaebol that drive South Korea’s economy.
The government is also pledging billions of dollars in spending on physical infrastructure. Vietnam has approved a $67 billion high-speed railway linking Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City, cutting a 30-hour journey down to five. The country is also planning to spend $25 billion on its airports by 2030, including a long-delayed replacement for the wildly overcapacity Tan Son Nhat International Airport in Ho Chi Minh City.
“They’ve developed the north and the south, and now they’re filling out the missing parts,” Vettoretti says, referring to Vietnam’s long, narrow geography, which stretches over 1,500 kilometers, longer than Italy.
Vietnam’s companies are also pushing forward on more advanced manufacturing projects. In addition to VinFast, Vingroup is supporting Vietnam’s high-speed rail lines and its offshore wind projects. Viettel, a telecoms conglomerate owned by the military, broke ground on the country’s first semiconductor fabrication plant in January, with a plan to start making 32-nanometer chips by 2027.
Perhaps the most ambitious proposal is an international financial center (IFC) to be split between Ho Chi Minh City and the coastal city of Da Nang, creating a regulatory island for financial institutions to move money, establish offices, and access global capital markets. Initiatives like Da Nang’s IFC are also part of a needed effort to spread economic development across more of the country. “We need to develop infrastructure in a better way so that economic growth is not concentrated only in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City,” Nguyen of Vinhomes says.
These projects are being led by a government that’s unusually unified, even by the standards of a single-party state. General Secretary To Lam, who leads the Vietnamese Communist Party, was chosen as the country’s president in April, putting both of Vietnam’s powerful political positions under one person.
Yap Kwong Weng, the CEO of Vietnam SuperPort, a logistics hub under development in northern Vietnam, sees a real change in Vietnam’s government. “We’re seeing a transition where leaders are being given more permanent positions, which helps make policy formulation and execution more secure,” he says. “For a business like ours, especially from an investor perspective, political stability and consistent policy implementation are extremely important.”
“You have a single party controlling everything, with very clear long-term goals that are very detailed—way beyond what you’d see at the opposite extreme, like in the U.S.,” says Freund, who has been investing in Vietnam for three decades.
Vietnam has also proved adept at managing a complicated geopolitical environment. Hanoi maintains warm relations with Washington, Beijing, and Moscow, a balancing act it has long dubbed “bamboo diplomacy,” a phrase coined by former General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who praised the bamboo plant’s “strong roots, a sturdy trunk, and flexible branches.”
In March, then–Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh traveled to Moscow to secure support for new nuclear power plants and railway infrastructure. A month later, To Lam made China his first overseas visit after becoming president, with a trip that led to rail and airplane deals.
Yet Vietnam still has to avoid some Trump-era pitfalls. The country’s trade agreement with the U.S. imposes a 40% tariff on goods deemed to have been transshipped from China—which could, in more extreme interpretations, threaten goods assembled in Vietnam using Chinese components. The U.S. has also slapped Section 301 probes on Vietnam, accusing it of industrial overproduction and failing to protect intellectual property.
Nor has Vietnam’s ability to play nice with all sides been tested by a genuine decoupling between the U.S. and China, where Washington and Beijing force countries to pick sides. Bamboo, after all, still breaks with enough pressure.
And 10% growth is a high bar for any country. The World Bank expects Vietnam’s growth in 2026 to slow to 6.8%; the OECD is even more bearish, forecasting 6.2% growth. The Asian Development Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office are more optimistic, but still predict growth of 7% this year.
HSBC, which forecasts 6.5% growth for Vietnam in 2026, warns that “downside risks to growth are increasing,” particularly if energy prices stay high in the wake of the Iran war. Inflation, at 5.8%, has already broken through the central bank’s inflation ceiling, making interest rate hikes more likely—and, in turn, complicating Vietnam’s path to high growth this year.
In the long term, Vietnam’s growth ambitions have another obstacle: They’ll be very expensive, and it’s not clear that the country can find the money to fund every single project. Most outside analyses suggest Vietnam needs $160 billion in infrastructure investment by 2030.
Jens Lottner, CEO of Techcombank, one of Vietnam’s largest privately owned banks, thinks the amount is even larger: He puts the financing gap at $200 billion, on top of total investment needs of $1.1 trillion. “There’s no way all these infrastructure investments can be financed by the local banking systems,” he says. “Vietnam’s deposit-generating capacity just isn’t big enough.”
The shortfall will need to be filled by foreign investment, but institutional investors may be wary of putting money into a country that still has capital controls. “It’s not difficult to get money into Vietnam,” Piro says. “It’s getting money out.” Even if there aren’t regulatory barriers, Vietnam still doesn’t have the financial infrastructure to allow large foreign investors to both deploy capital and exit investments. (In theory, the new Ho Chi Minh City financial center will address this problem, but the project is still in its very early stages, and few executives Fortune talked to fully understood how it would work.)
But Hanoi also doesn’t have a choice: It needs these infrastructure projects to encourage people to invest. “Logistics is still very expensive in Vietnam,” Yap says. “How are superports going to be linked to cargo terminals, airports, and seaports? We would appreciate more government support.
“If Vietnam cannot scale its ports or complete cross-border rail infrastructure on time, then capital will simply look elsewhere,” he warns.
It’s not just a shortage of funds. The surge in construction and manufacturing is already leading to a shortage of labor, and thus higher costs, across the country. (Nguyen of Vinhomes admits that her company is already having to invest in automation and less-labor-intensive machinery.) Vietnam’s edge against China is narrowing, and low-value manufacturing is already leaving for cheaper economies like Cambodia and Bangladesh.
“Garment factories are saying, ‘I’ll go anywhere—find me a place right near a village in the middle of nowhere where everyone can work,’ ” Piro says.
Vettoretti describes electronics suppliers that want to relocate to Vietnam to be closer to Samsung, only to find they “can’t afford to be nearby due to factors like labor costs and availability.”
“We always thought people were our biggest resource, with a population of over 100 million,” Piro says. “But wages are already going up for skilled and unskilled workers.”
Demographics will make this worse. In 2015 Vietnam became an aging society, where around 7% to 14% of the population is over 65; the United Nations projects that over a quarter of Vietnam’s population will be over 60 by 2050, similar to where graying economies like Germany and Hong Kong are today.
That gives Vietnam a deadline as to how quickly it needs to pull off reforms. “Once your population starts aging, it’s very hard to get higher growth numbers,” Lottner says. “Time really is our scarcest resource.”
Energy is another constraint. Even before hostilities broke out, Vietnam’s power grid was already straining under rolling outages, particularly in the north. Since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, fuel prices have spiked, with domestic gasoline prices rising nearly 50% in the weeks after the war began.
Vietnam has responded with fuel-tax cuts and price stabilization measures, which has helped avoid some of the worst effects of the fuel shortage. But Vietnam still has a long-term energy problem. The country generates most of its electricity from fossil fuels, and its renewable build-out will take years to reach targets. That combination threatens Vietnam’s pitch to high-end manufacturers, chipmakers, and data center operators, all of whom demand reliable, competitively priced electricity before committing billions in investment.
Then there’s the talent gap. In previous booms, Vietnamese companies captured gains quickly by importing Western management practices, but this low-hanging fruit has largely been picked. Now, Vietnamese businesses need an executive class capable of running businesses at a global scale.
“There’s still a shortage of really great management talent; that’s Vietnam’s number one issue,” Freund says. “Good companies that are attractive—Masan, Mobile World, FPT—are able to attract and retain people. But for an average company, it’s a real struggle.”
“When we ask clients what level of efficiency they can get out of Vietnamese factories versus Chinese or Korean factories, Vietnam—with some exceptions—is still lower,” Vettoretti admits. “So the question becomes: How do you drive more efficiency? How do you provide the training needed to reach that level?”
Still, Vietnam’s presence on the Southeast Asia 500, Fortune’s ranking of the largest companies in the region by revenue, continues to expand. Seventy-two Vietnamese companies generated $178 billion in revenue last year, up 10.5% from the year before.
That rise is evidence of Vietnam’s growing heft—and its growing independence.
“There’s this idea of a ‘China century,’ but Vietnam seems to want to carve out its own space within that broader economic development,” Vettoretti says. “I feel a lot more excitement when I walk about Ho Chi Minh City right now than when I go to some industrial zones and startup parks in China.
“People are quite a bit more aggressive. There’s a real sense of hunger.”
Business
AI may be messing with home prices
A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox. A home is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. That is probably the only dependable truth when it comes to putting a price tag on a property. Enter artificial intelligence. As with everything on the planet, AI is disrupting real estate. In March, celebrity real estate CEO Ryan Serhant, of his namesake company, posted a video on Instagram titled, “ChatGPT just blew up my $50M deal.” In the post, he explained how he had brokered a deal on the property, but, “at the last minute the seller uses ChatGPT, asks it, ‘Should I sell at this price?’ And maybe because of how he asked, whatnot, ChatGPT basically told him no, you should not sell at that price, it’s worth more.” Then, he said, the buyer did the same thing, asking the AI tool from OpenAI if he was overpaying, and ChatGPT told him that, yes, he was paying too much. “It gave him comparables that showed why, without context and without actually understanding the property,” Serhant said. Serhant’s post has more than 3 million views. He was able to salvage the deal, he said in a subsequent post, by explaining to both the buyer and seller the following about AI: “It doesn’t know the future, it can’t predict the future. It doesn’t know intentions, doesn’t know emotions, doesn’t know what buyers are circling, doesn’t know off-market comparables, doesn’t understand, fully, replacement costs, and doesn’t actually optimize for the deal,” he said. “AI can model a market. It can’t model a deal.” Serhant has said he does believe AI is a critical tool for real estate agents and even launched his own AI-powered workflow automation platform and operating system, called S.MPLE, which he talked about recently on the Property Play podcast. And he’s not alone. For most real estate professionals, the data aggregation capabilities of AI can certainly enhance their expertise, according to Kamini Lane, CEO of Coldwell Banker Realty. “Market analysis, comparative analysis, those are key tools in a real estate agent’s toolbox. But the important thing is that those are starting points for an agent to then apply their judgment, their expertise, their nuanced understanding of the real estate market, to either validate or enhance the recommendation that any data tool would provide,” she said. Lane said her agents are seeing more and more clients — both buyers and sellers — look to sources like Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT to price their homes or calculate offers. Like Serhant, she warned of how these generalized large language models miss the nuances of a home, a neighborhood and a client. “One of the most important things that agents can see, that ChatGPT, or any other AI tool is not going to know, is [what’s] up and coming. So neighborhoods that are up and coming, design features that are up and coming,” she said. “Anecdotal data that agents are aggregating through their conversations, that is something that no AI tool is ever going to be able to aggregate in the same way that a real estate professional can.” Zillow, one could argue, was the original AI price model for residential real estate. It launched its so-called Zestimate feature back in 2006, alongside the launch of its website. It recently launched “AI mode,” designed to guide homebuyers through their search by learning their specific needs. It then enables homebuyers to have a more personalized conversation with the Zestimate. “AI guidance for consumers needs to be connected to real context, real data, real ability to take action,” said Nicholas Stevens, vice president of product and AI at Zillow. “Then that AI guidance needs to be deeply connected to what a real estate agent is attempting to do. That’s the difference between what we’re doing at Zillow versus like a third-party, generic experience.” Agents have to upload in-depth floor plans and 3D visual captures of the entire home and surrounding lot with every possible piece of information. Then, in AI mode, Zillow gives advice to the buyer on what might be a good offer. “It actually sees a remodeled kitchen. It actually sees upgrades in the house, and that’s useful, both for buyers but also homeowners thinking about selling or remodeling as well,” said Stevens. Zillow’s AI feature is now primarily for buyers, but Stevens said the company will roll out a tool for sellers as well. It still raises accuracy questions, however, about the AI itself as it tries to understand its human users. Coldwell Banker’s Lane said she worries that for both buyers and sellers, AI will not be able to pick up on what they might need compared with what they say they want. It might also not be inclined to offer the often hard-to-hear advice that a human agent has to. “Artificial intelligence is trained to be sycophantic, it’s trained to give you the answers that you want, so that you will continue to engage, and so AI is more likely to give you the price that you want versus the price at which a home is going to sell for,” said Lane.
Business
Yum Brands sells Pizza Hut to LongRange Capital and Yum China
Yum Brands on Tuesday announced it is selling Pizza Hut to private equity firm LongRange Capital for roughly $1.5 billion.
The deal excludes the pizza chain’s locations in mainland China; Yum China will acquire those in a separate transaction for about $1.2 billion.
The deals cap off years of struggles for Pizza Hut, which has weighed on Yum’s overall financial performance. In the U.S., the pizza chain has transitioned from the sit-down format and salad bars of yore to focus on delivery and carryout — far behind the curve. Rival Domino’s Pizza has gobbled up market share from Pizza Hut for years; third-party delivery apps like DoorDash have further stolen sales from the chain.
In November, Yum said it was exploring strategic options for Pizza Hut. On Tuesday, the company said its leadership team and board determined that selling Pizza Hut would provide “the strongest path” to maximize shareholder value and give the pizza chain an ownership structure “tailored to its distinct markets, competitive strengths and long-term priorities.”
Across both deals, Yum expects to receive about $2.3 billion in net proceeds after taxes, closing adjustments and fees, excluding a possible earn-out of $75 million by 2030 from LongRange. Yum also anticipates one-time expenses of about $85 million during the rest of 2026 tied to the transactions.
The company’s management will provide more details about the financial impact of the transactions during Yum’s second-quarter conference call on July 30. Yum expects the sales to close in the third quarter, subject to regulatory approval.
Brothers Dan and Frank Carney founded Pizza Hut in 1958 in Wichita, Kansas. A year later, they were franchising the concept.
In 1969, Pizza Hut went public. Just two years later, it was the biggest pizza chain in the world, although it lost that title in 2017 to Domino’s.
The deal severs Pizza Hut’s decades-long ties to Taco Bell and KFC, its sister brands in Yum’s portfolio.
PepsiCo bought Pizza Hut in 1977, marking the beverage giant’s entry into the restaurant business. By 1986, it also owned Taco Bell and KFC. When Pepsi spun off its restaurant unit in 1997, the holding company was dubbed Tricon Global Restaurants — later renamed to Yum.
At the end of 2025, Pizza Hut had nearly 20,000 locations across 108 countries and territories and reported $12.8 billion in annual system sales, according to regulatory filings from Yum. The U.S. is its biggest market, representing about 40% of its system sales, followed by China with roughly 20% of its system sales.
Correction: The headline was updated to reflect that the $2.7 billion sale value includes deals with both LongRange Capital and Yum China.
Business
Is it a renter’s market? It depends on where you live
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In Nashville, Tenn., the landlords come to you.
At least, it looked that way from the texts showing up on Mason Comans’ phone a few months ago when he was apartment hunting. One property manager wrote that they were offering one month of free rent. Another offered two.
“I even saw some places doing three months, three and a half months free,” Comans said.
This is what a renter’s market looks like, said Zillow senior economist Kara Ng: “Renters, this is your year.”
The typical asking price for rent nationally is now rising slower than wages and inflation — 1.9% year over year in April, according to Zillow. By contrast, the latest inflation report, in May, showed that consumer prices more broadly were up 4.2% compared with a year ago.
Figures from Realtor.com say rent has actually gone down 1.5% year over year. And Ng added that a record 39.8% of rentals on Zillow offered move-in incentives in April, from waived fees to a month or more of free rent.
An extra few thousand dollars from move-in concessions is a sizable cushion for American families that are being squeezed on other expenses, such as power bills and gasoline. “Rent is the place giving you that breathing room,” Ng said.
But as with all things real estate, there’s one really big caveat when it comes to rent prices: location. Just how good renters have it depends on where they live.
An apartment construction boom
The reason rent increases have fallen behind inflation comes down to Economics 101: supply and demand. Specifically, the supply of apartments has been boosted by a construction boom. In 2024, the U.S. built some 600,000 apartment units, the most in 38 years.
All that extra supply has outpaced demand. The rental vacancy rate was at 7.3% at the start of the year, the highest it has been in a dozen years.
But that supply of new housing isn’t evenly distributed throughout the nation. Sun Belt cities, in particular, caught the construction bug. That’s why many apartment managers in cities like Nashville, Phoenix and Austin, Texas, are more likely to offer perks for new renters.
“There’s a lot of apartment buildings hitting the market all at once,” Ng said. “And property managers are trying to fill it, and they’re doing it with freebies.”
But ask a Chicago native whether it’s a renter’s market there, and you’ll get a simple answer. “Hell, no,” said Chloe Troub. “I find that to be really insulting, just given the cost, the sheer cost, of putting a roof over your head right now.”
Troub rents in the Windy City, which has seen some of the largest rent increases in the nation, with rents rising 5.4% year over year in April, according to Zillow. This can also be explained by supply and demand: Too many renters are chasing not-enough apartments.
Troub and her boyfriend currently rent a one-bedroom apartment, which she said is a steal at $1,600. But on a recent hunt to see whether she could find a bigger space, the best deal was a sublet for $2,000 — and an increase of that size would eat up her boyfriend’s last raise.
When she told the guy subletting the place that the price was too much for her, he said he wasn’t worried — he had 12 other showings lined up behind her. “It’s a rat race out there,” he told her.
The renter’s market fine print
And there are a couple of other caveats for renters to consider. First, move-in incentives don’t last forever. “As soon as they get you locked in, you’re still getting rent increases every year,” said Michelle Becker, a broker with Adaro Realty in Nashville.
Comans, the Nashville apartment hunter, has been willing to keep moving to score new deals — this is his fourth move in five years. His newly constructed one-bedroom apartment came with access to a pool, a private market and two and a half months of free rent.
But if he wants more free rent next year, he said, “then I would have to move to do that.”
And second, rent is still more expensive than it used to be. The average rent has shot up 36.9% since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Zillow.
Even Comans is paying more than he used to: $1,800 a month. “It is a lot of money,” he said. “It’s not cheap at all.”
Business
Fed expected to hold rates steady as inflation hits highest since 2023
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady following its monetary policy meeting this week amid the rise in inflation, while newly minted Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to hold his first post-meeting press conference.
Inflation was already elevated before the Iran war jolted energy prices higher, which has in turn contributed to key inflation measures moving further away from the Fed’s 2% target. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 4.2% in May, which was the highest level since April 2023.
That inflationary trend has prompted the market to effectively rule out an interest rate cut at this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed panel responsible for monetary policy decisions.
Warsh’s debut at the FOMC’s post-announcement press conference will be watched closely for signs of how policymakers view the path ahead for the economy and monetary policy, with the outlook for possible interest rate cuts this year appearing dim.
INFLATION IS SQUEEZING AMERICAN CONSUMERS AND THE FED’S LATEST REPORT SHOWS IT’S GETTING WORSE
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 98.4% probability that the Fed will leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% this week. It also shows a 42.7% chance that rates remain at that level through the December meeting, narrowly ahead of a 25-basis-point cut at that time.
“While Warsh is generally perceived as dovish, he will inherit a Committee that has become noticeably more hawkish,” said EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco. “Several policymakers have recently argued that rate hikes should remain an option if inflation remains above target, and concerns around energy-driven inflation pressures have only reinforced that bias.”
JPMorgan economists led by Michael Feroli wrote that they think that given the inflation backdrop and the labor market looking stronger, the FOMC “should drop the easing bias from the post-meeting statement, replacing it with either a neutral sentence or no forward guidance at all.”
AMERICANS GROW MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT FINANCES AS RENT AND FOOD COST FEARS SURGE, FED SAYS
Fed watchers will also be on the lookout for signals about possible institutional changes at the central bank in terms of its communications and projections.
Daco said that the summary of economic projections (SEP or “dot plot”) released by the Fed are likely to garner more attention than usual, given that “Warsh has repeatedly expressed skepticism toward the usefulness of economic forecasts and the dot plot of median rate expectations.”
“While we still expect the SEP and dot plot to be published in June, we would not be surprised if Warsh declined to submit his own projections. Such a decision would be largely symbolic, but it would reinforce his broader view that policymakers should place less emphasis on forecasts and more emphasis on incoming economic data,” Daco added.
KEVIN WARSH SWORN IN AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR
Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius and David Mericle noted the questions around whether the SEP would continue to be published and said that they don’t expect major changes in the near term.
“The FOMC just had a lengthy review of its communication practices last year in its framework review and was unable to agree on any changes,” they wrote.
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The JPMorgan economists said that while Warsh has promised “regime change” at the Fed and is likely to face questions about that, he has also “always been somewhat vague about what that would entail, and at this early stage we expect he will say he has initiated a review but will avoid giving specifics.”
Business
Fed set to make interest rate decision as inflation hits 3-year high
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest decision on interest rates on Wednesday as the central bank weathers the highest inflation in three years.
The announcement will mark the first possible adjustment of the benchmark interest rate since Trump nominee Kevin Warsh began his four-year term as Fed chair last month.
The policy move is also set to arrive at a moment of flux for the nation’s economy, just days after an agreement between the United States and Iran offered hope for some price relief.
The U.S.-Iran accord, set to be formally signed on Friday, came as gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon for the first time since March. Still, fuel costs stand well above pre-war levels, and an array of grocery prices remain elevated.
Futures markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady when policymakers meet on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.
In recent weeks, however, odds have risen for a potential interest rate hike by the end of 2026, the tool showed, granting a roughly four in 10 chance of a quarter-point increase in December.
The shift in expectations came after a stronger-than-expected jobs report earlier this month showed robust hiring in May. In theory, a resilient labor market could afford central bankers leeway to raise interest rates in an effort to dial back inflation, since elevated borrowing costs risk a hiring slowdown.
Inflation jumped for a third consecutive month as the Iran war continued to drive up prices in May, surpassing 4% for the first time in three years
The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded, sending gasoline prices surging.
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced a U.S.-Iran deal that included plans to reopen the strait. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the deal had been finalized and said it would be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Oil prices fell to their lowest level since March.
The benchmark rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The rate decision will be the first major policy move overseen by Warsh, who will address reporters during a customary press conference minutes after the central bank issues its announcement.
During his term as a Fed governor in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Warsh gained a reputation as an interest-rate “hawk,” meaning he generally preferred higher interest rates as a means of ensuring low and stable inflation.
Last year, Warsh voiced support for lower interest rates. At his Senate confirmation hearing in April, Warsh emphasized the threat posed by elevated inflation.
“When inflation surges — as it has done in recent years — grievous harm is done to our citizens, especially to the least well-off,” Warsh said.
Bucking typical norms, former Fed Chair Jerome Powell Powell will cast a vote on interest rates as a member of the Fed’s 12-person policymaking board.
Powell said he would stay on at the central bank’s board of governors after his term as chair expired as an investigation into the Fed’s office renovation continues.
The Department of Justice moved to drop a criminal probe into Powell in April, calling on the Fed’s inspector general to carry out the investigation into cost overruns tied to the renovation. Powell will remain on the Fed’s board for an indeterminate length of time, he said last month.
The criminal investigation into Powell focused on alleged false testimony to Congress about an office renovation. Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, has rebuked the probe as a politically motivated effort to influence interest-rate policy. Trump denied any involvement in the criminal investigation.
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