There is exasperation in the voice of a long time Labour adviser. But as every hour passes, it is more likely the UK will soon have its seventh prime minister in 10 years.
Talk of Sir Keir Starmer fighting is fading, his exit seems more likely as the weekend goes on. The prime minister is at his country retreat, Chequers, spending time with his wife.
The reasons for Labour to switch leader are compelling. Andy Burnham looks like a winner. He has shown he can beat Reform, who until this moment have seemed a deadly threat to Labour. He is popular in the country, compared to most politicians at least. There are swathes of MPs eager to back him and his brand, believing he’s the one who can improve the party’s grim position.
He’s been successful and highly visible as the Mayor of Greater Manchester, known just as Andy everywhere he goes, one of his backers tells me.
He’s no stranger to government either, having served as health secretary, culture secretary, and as a Treasury minister years ago. And most of all, Burnham’s shown in the Makerfield by-election campaign he has that valuable talent in politics – a capacity to make people feel good.
There have been more than a dozen big U-turns. Resignations. The mess over Lord Mandelson’s job. And after dreadful election results in 2025 and 2026, wipe-out in Wales. Starmer has seemed like a loser to many in his own party.
It is not even two years since his massive win at the general election. But the political perception that he has an appeal to voters? Brutally, that’s long gone.
On Friday, the prime minister was still arguing to the cameras that he would fight if Burnham challenges him, refusing to acknowledge that is not an “if”, it’s a “when”.
Even privately some of his backers were still adamant he would run, talking of donors who’ve given money to run a campaign and office spaces being found.
One source claimed his conversations with cabinet ministers in the afternoon were not about whether he had the authority to stay in office, but the arguments he’d make in a leadership race.
Several sources told me Starmer really does believe he could beat Burnham in a leadership contest, and concluded that a fortnight ago after watching him on BBC Question Time on a Thursday, then failing to explain the borrowing and spending rules in a Newsnight interview on the Friday.
A government insider said: “On Saturday he phoned his closest allies and said, ‘I’m sure I could win.'”
But the widespread assumption this weekend in the party is that Burnham would beat him hands down, another government source said: “It’s nuts” to imagine the PM could come out on top.
An increasing number of ministers, previously loyal to Starmer now think it’s time, as one cabinet source told me, they “wouldn’t want the prime minister to humiliate himself” in a race.
The chances of him staying to fight are diminishing. But what is still a mystery this weekend is exactly how Starmer will respond.
“It’s very hard for people to know a person who doesn’t know themselves,” said another government insider.
Not just for what’s happening now, but how they see he’s chipped in unhelpfully from the sidelines since the day Starmer moved into No 10.
One Starmer ally told me: “This is not a chase, these are big decisions about who is going to run the country – it can’t be rushed 20 minutes after a by-election.”
The former minister, Jess Philips, told the BBC this morning that Burnham or any other candidates must be “tested with the rigour of at least some manner of contest”.
There’s also concern about the precedent of ousting a leader off the back of a by-election, the votes from a group of only 77,000 people deciding everything for the whole country. Burnham would have no mandate from the public, without a general election.
And what happens if Labour’s standing didn’t improve? Might those calling for a removal van for the current prime minister do the same again? What if there were another by-election when Prime Minister Burnham was in trouble?
Is it mad to imagine that other big names from the past – David Miliband or, even Ed Balls – might abandon New York and the breakfast TV sofa, and fancy a comeback too?
Just as there are compelling reasons for Labour to make the switch, there are serious risks. There may yet be a contest, and another candidate aside from Wes Streeting could find the 81 names to run.
But with 100 MPs now calling for Starmer to go and support for him to stay in the cabinet fading, one senior party figure predicts “he’ll realise this weekend that he can’t keep the Cabinet and ministers together and will have to go”.
Labour has found itself in a strange situation it promised you it would never reach – en route to removing its first prime minister to win in 14 years. And congratulating themselves for winning a seat they already held, so they can get rid of the man whose campaigning won them all the seats they have.
The vow not to repeat the Conservatives’ habit of switching prime minister might be the last political promise Starmer breaks.
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ASHTON-IN-MAKERFIELD, England (AP) — Labour’s Andy Burnham, the popular mayor of Greater Manchester, won a special election for a seat in Parliament and signaled Friday that he will use it to challenge embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer for leadership of the country.
Starmer said he planned to fight for his job, but a growing number of colleagues urged him to make a dignified exit.
“There is this sense of collective movement,” former Labour Deputy Leader Harriet Harman told the “Electoral Dysfunction” podcast. “Andy Burnham is going to become prime minister. Keir Starmer is going to be leaving office.”
Burnham decisively won the seat of Makerfield in northwestern England over Rob Kenyon of the anti-immigration party Reform UK. The result cements the status of Burnham, a 56-year-old politician nicknamed the King of the North, as the top contender to replace Starmer as leader of the Labour Party and the country. Burnham won almost 55% of the 45,510 votes cast for a field of more than a dozen candidates, over 9,000 more than runner-up Kenyon.
Burnham’s acceptance speech left no doubt that he wants to lead the country, and not just be one of the more than 400 Labour lawmakers in the 650-seat House of Commons.
“Everyone knows that politics isn’t working,” he said. “Everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be. Tonight could, just could, be the turning point.”
Starmer congratulated Burnham, writing on X that voters “chose Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate.”
But the prime minister insisted he would fight any attempt to oust him.
“I will run, I will stand,” if there is a Labour leadership contest, Starmer said. “I’ve said repeatedly I’m not going to walk away from that.”
Burnham says he’s the candidate of change
Burnham has led Manchester since 2017, overseeing rapid regeneration for the city where the Industrial Revolution was forged. He is pledging to repeat his signature brand of “Manchesterism” on a national scale.
Burnham said he would work to ensure that “the name Makerfield is forever synonymous with bringing about the change this country needs.”
He told supporters and campaign workers on Friday that “we are going to lay out a new path for Britain.”
“We need an economy that works for everybody, not a few in far-off places from here,” he said. “We have an opportunity to turn the tide, to make the country feel like it’s working again, to make people see that politics can make a positive difference, to make people feel hope again.”
Earlier, in his victory speech, he said Labour had “a final chance to change” and win back voters’ trust.
“But it is a chance now, from this result tonight, to build a new politics based on unity and hope, turning away from the path that takes us to a divided, dark politics of the kind we see in the United States,” he said.
Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said defeating Reform UK strengthens Burnham’s claim to be Labour’s biggest asset.
“The narrative he can bring is, ‘No one else could have won that seat. I won that. I bring something unique. I bring an ability to renew our appeal,’” Ford said.
Voters in Makerfield, who have been the focus of international media attention during the five-week campaign, were aware their votes carried unusual weight.
“I voted Andy Burnham because I don’t believe Keir Starmer has done a good job,” said Ernest Sherman, 70. “So I voted tactically knowing that Andy Burnham has a chance to replace Starmer. So it will still be Labour, but he will have different views.”
Labour is in power but unpopular
Starmer’s popularity has cratered since he led the center-left Labour Party to a landslide election victory in July 2024.
He has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair tattered public services and ease the cost of living, and been hamstrung by repeated missteps, including his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a scandal-tarnished friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as the U.K. ambassador to the United States.
Labour is losing liberal voters to the growing Green Party, and facing a rising Reform UK, which consistently leads in nationwide opinion polls. The Nigel Farage -led party has rapidly gained ground in post-industrial northern England areas like Makerfield, some 200 miles (320 kilometers) northwest of London.
Burnham’s resounding victory gives Labour new hope of stopping the Reform tide. Farage acknowledged he was “disappointed, no question about it,” with the result.
Labour’s dismal performance in May’s local elections spurred scores of lawmakers to demand Starmer’s resignation. Wes Streeting resigned as health secretary in May, saying that “where we need vision, we have a vacuum.” Streeting has said he will run in a leadership contest if there is one.
Then Josh Simons, the Labour lawmaker for Makerfield, stepped down to trigger a special election and give Burnham the chance to return to Parliament.
Britain’s parliamentary system allows governing parties to change leaders midterm, with the winner becoming prime minister without the need for a national election. Under Labour rules, a lawmaker can challenge the leader if they have backing from a fifth of the party’s House of Commons lawmakers — a number that stands at 81.
Burnham’s victory piles pressure on Starmer to quit
Burnham will head to London to be sworn in as a lawmaker as soon as Monday. He’s likely to seek a meeting with Starmer to argue that the prime minister should exit gracefully and set a timetable for his departure.
Burnham’s supporters wasted no time in urging Starmer to go. Labour lawmaker Louise Haigh, a Burnham ally, said Starmer should “consider an orderly and managed transition.”
“Andy won’t be doing anything rash or hasty,” she told Sky News. “I’m really hopeful the prime minister and Andy can come to an agreement.”
Starmer insisted on Friday that he was elected on a “mandate for change” and would carry on with it. Earlier this week he suggested that he could offer Burnham a Cabinet post, an idea rebuffed by Burnham’s allies.
Despite his stubborn determination, Starmer could be forced out if several members of the Cabinet tell him the game is up and quit, or threaten to quit, in protest. Tthere could then be a leadership contest, or a coronation, depending on whether other potential candidates think Burnham has an unassailable lead.
“When things begin to slide away from a prime minister, they begin to slide away very, very quickly,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.
“Over the weekend there will be all sorts of talks behind closed doors, mainly I suspect people trying to persuade Keir Starmer … that the game is up.”
___
Lawless reported from London. Associated Press writer Danica Kirka contributed to this story.

Andy Burnham has officially won his special election and regained a seat in Parliament, setting him up to challenge the deeply unpopular Keir Starmer as the leader of the Labour party and as prime minister.
Burnham, currently the mayor of Greater Manchester in northwest England, won a seat in Makerfield and came away with 55% of the vote in a field of more than a dozen candidates, according to The Associated Press. The runner-up was Rob Kenyon of Reform UK, a right-wing populist party, who received more than 9,000 fewer votes than Burnham.
Burnham last served as a member of Parliament in 2017 but strongly implied in his victory speech that he is returning with the intention to lead the United Kingdom.
“Everyone knows that politics isn’t working. Everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be. Tonight could, just could, be the turning point,” he said, according to the AP. “This result will bring about a country that works fairly for everywhere and for everybody.”
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This special election, called by-elections in Britain, was unusually significant because the area’s Labour MP, Josh Simons, intentionally resigned to allow Burnham to win the seat and pursue leadership.
The potentially outsized impact of this election was juxtaposed with the strange scene that unfolded when all the candidates gathered on Friday morning to hear the results. Burnham stood in between an independent candidate dressed in a fox costume and another candidate known as “Count Binface”.
As his name suggests, “Count Binface,” whose real name is Jonathan David Harvey, was wearing a trash can on his head and regularly runs in U.K. elections to advocate for increased voter turnout.
Starmer congratulated Burnham in a social media post on X, saying voters “chose Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate.”
When asked about Burnham’s intentions to oust him as leader, Starmer said he will fight to remain prime minister, a position he has held for nearly two years.
“I’ve said repeatedly I’m not going to walk away from that,” Starmer told reporters.
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Starmer led the Labour party to a landslide victory in July 2024 and ever since, his popularity has been eroding thanks to a persistently high cost of living, an anemic economy and a scandal over his willingness to accept gifts from wealthy donors.
Last September, Starmer was slammed for appointing Peter Mandelson as the British ambassador to the United States, when it was known as early as 2019 that Mandelson had a friendship with convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Following an enormous public backlash, Mandelson was quickly dismissed from his post.
With Starmer as leader, Labour is increasingly losing liberal-minded voters to the Green Party, while also facing stronger challenges by Reform UK, a Nigel Farage-led party that advocates against mass migration and in favor of tighter border controls. Farage, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, said he was disappointed by Burnham’s victory.
Burnham is expected to head to London to be sworn in as soon as Monday. Under the British parliamentary system, the governing party can hold leadership elections in the middle of the term. The winner of such a contest can become prime minister without there having to be a national election.
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Under Labour rules, a lawmaker can challenge the leader if they win the backing of a fifth of their party’s members in the House of Commons. Burnham has enough lawmakers on board to trigger a leadership contest, according to a report from The New Statesman.
According to the AP, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said Burnham and Starmer will “have a conversation about what comes next” in the next few days.

LONDON (AP) — Andy Burnham is a political insider turned outsider who aims to be Britain’s next prime minister.
The 56-year-old politician presents himself as an amiable northern everyman who prefers T-shirts to a suit and tie and spends spare time playing soccer or spinning 1990s tunes during DJ battles.
He’s also an experienced politician whose career has taken him from high-level government jobs to the mayoralty of Greater Manchester, and now to the cusp of the prime minister’s office.
Burnham is expected to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer after winning a seat in Parliament in a special election he hailed as a “turning point” for U.K. politics.
His nickname is inspired by ‘Game of Thrones’
Burnham was born and raised in a pocket of northwest England between Liverpool and Manchester, the son of a British Telecom engineer and a receptionist. He joined the Labour Party as a teenager, attended Cambridge University and was first elected to Parliament in 2001.
He was a lawmaker for a decade and a half, rising through the ranks under Prime Minister Tony Blair and serving in Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Cabinet between 2007 and 2010.
He ran twice for the leadership of the Labour Party, in 2010 and 2015, and lost badly each time, before quitting Westminster to run for Manchester mayor.
His tenure has seen him nicknamed the King of the North, a “Game of Thrones”-inspired nod both to his championing of his home region and his barely disguised political ambition.
He gained the moniker during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he harangued Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson over what he called a “London-centric” approach to the crisis.
Burnham has led the Greater Manchester region since 2017, overseeing rapid regeneration for the city where the Industrial Revolution was forged. The city center has boomed, with skyscrapers blooming on vacant post-industrial sites. Many residents praise him for championing the city. He took a piecemeal public transport system under public control, branded it the Bee Network and improved its services.
He has also won praise for supporting the campaign for justice for victims of the Hillsborough disaster, when 97 Liverpool soccer fans were killed in a crush at a game in Sheffield in 1989. Years of advocacy led by victims’ families exposed mistakes and wrongdoing by police – who initially spread a false narrative blaming drunken fans – and extracted an apology from the government.
He pledges to end trickle-down economics
Burnham is perceived to be to the political left of Starmer – an asset with Labour members – and is acknowledged as one of the party’s best communicators. The rather stiff public speaker of his earlier leadership bids has been replaced by a relaxed figure in jeans and open-necked shirts.
His three mayoral election victories and decisive win in Thursday’s election in Makerfield, where he trounced the candidate of the anti-immigration party Reform UK, have cemented his status as a winner. Many in the party hope he can reverse Labour’s precipitous decline in popularity since Starmer won an election landslide two years ago.
Makerfield voter Ellen Picton, 66, said she was “absolutely thrilled” by Burnham’s victory.
“I believe that he’s a man for the common people,” she said. “Andy is like one of us, and he understands what we are going through.”
Burnham is pledging to repeat on a national scale his signature brand of “Manchesterism” – a politics that, he likes to say, puts people and place before party and centers on regions ignored by governments in London.
“What we’ve built in Greater Manchester needs to go national,” Burnham said during the campaign. “I know what it is to turn places around.”
But it remains to be seen whether he can have national appeal, said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.
“Calling him King of the North in some ways, I think, raises the question of whether he can also be King of the South, King of the East and King of the West,″ Bale said. “However, he does seem to have the kind of X factor that encourages people to think of him as not an ordinary politician, somebody who can communicate with normal people, someone who can speak human.”
In a postelection speech to supporters, Burnham sketched out his priorities: better vocational education and jobs for young people, lower energy bills and rail fares and “an end to trickle down economics, which didn’t trickle down very much at all to places like this.”
Critics say Burnham’s politics are vague and fail to grapple with tough issues, such as where the money will come from to pay for his pledges. And they note that running a country of 70 million is a lot different from overseeing a city region of 3 million.
Nonetheless Burnham now has momentum that could propel him into 10 Downing Street.
“Andy Burnham is probably one of the most popular politicians in the country,” Bale said. “Although, to be honest, that is not saying much.”
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Kwiyeon Ha in Ashton-in-Makerfield, England contributed to this story.

EXCLUSIVE: As Democrats across the country criticize education programs in red states, Arkansas Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders is touting a major achievement in her state she hopes will serve as an education blueprint for all states, regardless of politics, nationwide.
“The thing we’re most excited about is the fact that so many Arkansas students are doing better now than they would have been doing pre-LEARNS legislation,” Sanders told Fox News Digital on the day her office announced a “major breakthrough” in education following implementation of a 2023 Republican-backed statewide education overhaul, known as the LEARNS Act.
The law also raised the minimum teacher salary from $36,000 to $50,000, created performance-based teacher bonuses, boosted literacy support, funded school safety initiatives and banned critical race theory and classroom teachings related to critical race theory, gender identity, sexual orientation and sexually explicit materials.
Arkansas public school students are seeing sharp gains on a new statewide exam, with proficiency rates rising more than 7% across all grades and subjects in just three years under the state’s conservative education reforms. Since 2024, student proficiency has increased by more than 7% and by more than 5% since 2025, according to the governor’s office.
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“We want our kids to do well,” Sanders said. “We love the fact that kids in Arkansas are learning, that they’re moving up. The growth and achievement that we’re seeing from our kids is exactly what we want to happen.”
In 2026, 42.2% of students met proficiency standards, up from 36.9% in 2025. Mathematics proficiency increased from 36.4% in 2024 to 44.2% in 2026, science proficiency rose from 35.6% to 44.0%, and English language arts proficiency climbed from 33.8% to 39.5%.
Students performing at the lowest levels also fell across all subjects, dropping from an average of 27.3% in 2025 to 23.1% in 2026. Reading performance among third-graders improved as well, with proficiency rising from 36% in 2024 to 43% in 2026.
Students in kindergarten through second grade, the first to learn under the state’s education reforms, exceeded 50% proficiency in nearly every subject and grade level, while maintaining upward momentum.
Sanders said transformational reform is driven by better teaching and a unified focus on student needs, saying “a comprehensive, aligned approach” makes a difference.
“Not any one thing, but it’s the collective process of really transforming the way that we approach education,” Sanders said. “Realizing that every single kid can learn when given the right environment, when given the right tools, and letting failure not be an option.”
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Democrats in recent years, including former Vice President Kamala Harris and prominent teachers’ union officials, have targeted red-state education policies, but Sanders told Fox News Digital she hopes the education program sends a message across the country.
“I’m hopeful absolutely that red states will use what we’re doing here as a blueprint, but I also hope that blue states will look at the success that you’re seeing in places like Arkansas, Mississippi and others and try to follow suit because we want all kids to do well,” Sanders said.
“Seeing kids achieve and do better and be successful, that’s not a red state or blue state issue. That’s something everybody should care about.”
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Sanders said the results are “showing what works,” adding there is no need to “reinvent the wheel.”
“We know that raising the bar, providing those resources and support for our students, for our teachers, for our superintendents makes a difference,” Sanders said. “We’ve got a recipe here that’s working and absolutely hope it not only changes the conversation but frankly changes the system, changes the culture and education.”
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“The LEARNS Act was a bold, innovative, and comprehensive approach to improve education,” Jacob Oliva, secretary of the Arkansas Department of Education, said in a press release. “It was built on research, urgency, and the desperate need for change. These scores prove that listening to teachers, administrators, and parents wasn’t just valuable but also essential. The plan is working. Arkansas students are reading, learning, and benefitting.”